I'm taking a break in the currently scheduled broadcast of all things Super Bowl to take a look at what would be written about if the Baltimore Ravens, instead of the Pittsburgh Steelers, had won the AFC Championship.
Heaps and bounds of credit were poured on Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco, a rookie from Delaware who became one of the few first-year signal-callers to lead his team to the postseason. At the same time, Trent Dilfer, who led the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory in 2000, is still considered the worst quarterback to win a Super Bowl.
The problem is, it's not hard to believe that Dilfer had a better season than Flacco.
I am admittedly speculating that the media would continue fawning over Flacco if he won the Super Bowl, but I have no reason to believe they would suddenly change their tune. Quite frankly, the media was unduly swayed by the fact -- and it is a fact -- that Flacco had a good season for a rookie quarterback.
But in the grand scheme of things? Flacco = Dilfer.
If you actually look at their seasons, Flacco's and Dilfer's statistical outputs -- and the team surrounding them -- are almost identical. If Dilfer gets blamed (as he probably doesn't deserve) for being a bad quarterback, why isn't Flacco also just a game manager? If Flacco gets praised (as he probably doesn't deserve) for being a good quarterback, why isn't Dilfer also deified?
First things first. Dilfer wasn't even the leading passer on the 2000 Ravens. Tony Banks passed for a team-high 1,578 yards that season, but was benched for inconsistent play four games into a famous five-game stretch in which Baltimore scored zero offensive touchdowns (they won twice).
Dilfer replaced Banks in Week 8, and started the rest of the season. After an initial loss, he led the Ravens to 11 consecutive wins, including a Super Bowl victory.
Yes, the Ravens' defense in 2000 was one of the best in NFL history, allowing the fewest points (165) ever in a 16-game season. Including the playoffs, they allowed 10 or fewer points in 15 out of 20 games and posted four shutouts.
But therein lies the point -- the 2008 Ravens were similarly constructed.
The current iteration of Baltimore's defense was not nearly as historically dominant -- they allowed 244 points -- but they finished third in the league in points allowed and second in yards allowed. (The 2000 Ravens defense finished first in points allowed and second in yards allowed).
And this season, the Ravens relied even more on the running game than in 2000. The 2008 Ravens ran for 2,376 yards on 592 carries and attempted only 433 passes, while the 2000 Ravens racked up 2,199 yards on 511 carries and attempted 504 passes.
When all is said and done, Dilfer had more weight put upon his shoulders offensively (although he played in half as many games) yet produced similar numbers to Flacco. Dilfer went 134-for-226 (59.3%) for 1,502 yards, 12 TDs and 11 INTs to receive a 76.6 passer rating. Flacco went 257-for-428 (60.0%) for 2,971 yards, 14 TDs and 12 INTs to receive an 80.3 passer rating. When you include their playoff performances, Dilfer has the better overall passer rating.
Let's not be naive. Flacco played well for a rookie, but no better than Dilfer.
Nota bene:
- Although passer rating is by no means a perfect judge, and is skewed positively toward the modern game, it's worth noting that Dilfer's regular season passer rating was better than nine other Super Bowl winning quarterbacks: Eli Manning (73.9), Phil Simms (74.6), Jim Plunkett (72.9), Terry Bradshaw (55.2), Bob Griese (71.6), Johnny Unitas (65.1), Len Dawson (69.9), Joe Namath (72.1) and Bart Starr (64.4).
- Bradshaw's first Super Bowl victory with the Steelers is an astounding parallel to Dilfer. He didn't start until midway through the season and finished with average statistics -- 67-for-148 (45.3%), 785 yards, 7 TDs and 8 INTs for a 55.2 passer rating. I guess Dilfer needs to come out of retirement and win three more Super Bowls to have his season purged from our collective memories.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Top 20 playoffs for wide receivers
Update: Larry Fitzgerald caught seven passes for 127 yards and two touchdowns in the Cardinals 27-23 loss to the Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII, becoming the only player to record 100-plus receiving yards in four consecutive playoff games. His postseason totals -- 30 receptions, 546 yards and seven touchdowns -- are all NFL records, and enough for me to propel him into first place on this list. If Arizona would have won the Super Bowl, Fitzgerald would likely have been MVP (quarterback Kurt Warner certainly would have been considered) after an incredible fourth-quarter performance in which he gave Arizona its first lead of the game.
Update (4/16/11): I decided to see if any performances from the last two playoffs qualified for my list. Green Bay's Greg Jennings had pretty strong 2010 postseason numbers -- 21 catches, 302 yards, two touchdowns (both in the Super Bowl victory) -- but he had the luxury of four games and I never got the sense his performance was dominant. Minnesota's Sidney Rice (10 catches, 186 yards and four touchdowns in two games) and Indianapolis' Pierre Garcon (21 catches, 251 yards and two touchdowns in three games) both made legitimate arguments in 2009. I may reconsider in the future or expand the list to 25, but I'm not convinced yet. That said, I am going to move Fitzgerald to the top (he was originally No. 2) and I have to actually put Tom Fears (16 catches, 334 yards and three touchdowns in two games in 1950) on the list.
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is having an outstanding postseason -- he has 23 catches for a playoff-record 419 yards and five touchdowns -- with the Super Bowl still to play. He is one of four players (Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Tom Fears) to have three consecutive playoff games with 100-plus receiving yards, and a blog post on NFL.com documents exactly how strong Fitzgerald's start to his playoff career has been.
I thought it would be interesting to compile the other great wide receiver performances in NFL postseason history, so I compiled a completely unscientific top 20 list. I assessed no direct penalty for losing (because wide receivers don't play defense, etc.) although not winning prohibited a deeper postseason run. I rewarded consistency throughout the playoffs, but also weighted any performances in the Super Bowl and conference championships.
21. Wes Welker, New England Patriots, 2007
27 catches, 213 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Welker tied the record for most receptions in a postseason, and became the first to accomplish the feat in three games.
20. Ricky Sanders, Washington Redskins, 1987
15 catches, 285 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Sanders set a Super Bowl record (since passed by Jerry Rice) with 193 receiving yards, scoring twice on nine receptions.
19. Sterling Sharpe, Green Bay Packers, 1993
11 catches, 229 yards, four touchdowns
Two games, lost divisional round
In his only two career playoff games, Sharpe recorded 100-plus yards in each game and scored four of Green Bay's five offensive touchdowns.
18. Michael Irvin, Dallas Cowboys, 1992
18 catches, 288 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Irvin was consistent -- recording six catches for 80-plus yards in each game -- but saved his best performance for last, scoring twice in the Super Bowl.
17. John Stallworth, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1979
12 catches, 259 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Stallworth caught one touchdown in each game, including a 73-yard score in the Steelers' fourth Super Bowl victory of the 1970s.
16. Antonio Freeman, Green Bay Packers, 1997
17 catches, 307 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Freeman picked up steam in each game, culminating in a nine-catch, 126-yard, two-touchdown performance in the Super Bowl.
15. James Lofton, Buffalo Bills, 1990
13 catches, 323 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Lofton caught 12 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns in the two games before the Super Bowl, where he was limited to one 61-yard reception.
14. Isaac Bruce, St. Louis Rams, 1999
13 catches, 316 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Both of Bruce's touchdowns were 70-plus yards, including the game winner with less than three minutes remaining in the Super Bowl.
13. Randy Moss, Minnesota Vikings, 1998
14 catches, 315 yards, three touchdowns
Two games, lost divisional game
Fitzgerald was still a ballboy for the Vikings when Moss caught two touchdowns of 40-plus yards and picked up 188 yards in the divisional loss.
12. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2003
18 catches, 404 yards, three touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl
Smith picked up 298 yards in two games and his 69-yard touchdown catch on the first play of double overtime sent the Panthers to the NFC Championship.
11. Lynn Swann, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1978
13 catches, 274 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
In addition to his seven-reception, 124-yard, one-touchdown performance, Swann made one of the most acrobatic catches in Super Bowl history.
10. Tom Fears, Los Angeles Rams, 1950
16 catches, 334 yards, three touchdowns
Two games, lost NFL championship
Fears scored three consecutive touchdowns (43, 68 and 27 yards) and compiled 198 yards to lift the Rams to the title game.
9. John Stallworth, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1978
14 catches, 278 yards, four touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Stallworth scored in every game, including twice in the Super Bowl, and had a 10-catch, 158-yard performance in the divisional round.
8. Charlie Brown, Washington Redskins, 1983
14 catches, 401 yards, one touchdown
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Brown set the record for most receiving yards in one postseason (he is now fourth all-time), and averaged 28.6 yards per reception.
7. Andre Reed, Buffalo Bills, 1993
19 catches, 313 yards, three touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl
Reed caught three second-half touchdowns in the NFL's best comeback, and his 151 receiving yards in the Super Bowl are the most for any losing player.
6. Anthony Carter, Dallas Cowboys, 1987
23 catches, 391 yards, two touchdowns (1 catch, 1 return)
Three games, lost conference championship
Carter's 227-yard performance in the divisional round set a playoff mark that stood for 11 years, and he added an 87-yard punt return in the wild-card game.
5. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2005
27 catches, 335 yards, five touchdowns (3 catch, 1 rush, 1 return)
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Smith set a playoff record for most catches, recorded a 12-catch, 218-yard receiving performance and became the only player with a receiving, rushing and punt return touchdown in the same postseason.
4. Fred Biletnikoff, Oakland Raiders, 1968
14 catches, 370 yards, four touchdowns
Two games, lost conference championship
Biletnikoff's seven catches for 190 yards and a touchdown in the conference championship was his worst performance of the postseason. He had seven for 180 yards and three touchdowns -- of 24, 44 and 54 yards -- one week prior.
3. Jerry Rice, San Francisco 49ers, 1989
19 catches, 318 yards, five touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Rice is the only player to catch three touchdowns in a Super Bowl (he tied his mark in the 1994 playoffs), catching seven passes for 148 yards. He previously scored twice, including a 73-yard touchdown in the divisional round.
2. Jerry Rice, San Francisco 49ers, 1988
21 catches, 409 yards, six touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Although Fitzgerald broke his postseason yardage record, Rice still has the most receiving touchdowns in a postseason, most receiving yards (215) in a Super Bowl, and is tied for most receptions (11) in a Super Bowl.
1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals, 2008
30 catches, 546 yards, seven touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl
Fitzgerald has set the postseason record for most receiving yards, recorded two games of 150-plus receiving yards and caught three touchdowns in the first half of the NFC Championship to send Arizona to its first Super Bowl.
Nota bene:
- Jerry Rice (Nos. 2 and 3), Steve Smith (Nos. 5 and 11) and John Stallworth (Nos. 9 and 16) are the only wide receivers to make my top 20 list twice.
- NFC teams have a 13 to 7 edge over AFC teams in the number of representatives. The Pittsburgh Steelers are represented three times, while the Green Bay Packers, Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers are all represented twice.
- Sixteen of the 20 players advanced to the Super Bowl -- 8 won, 7 lost and Fitzgerald's Arizona Cardinals face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Feb. 1.
Update (4/16/11): I decided to see if any performances from the last two playoffs qualified for my list. Green Bay's Greg Jennings had pretty strong 2010 postseason numbers -- 21 catches, 302 yards, two touchdowns (both in the Super Bowl victory) -- but he had the luxury of four games and I never got the sense his performance was dominant. Minnesota's Sidney Rice (10 catches, 186 yards and four touchdowns in two games) and Indianapolis' Pierre Garcon (21 catches, 251 yards and two touchdowns in three games) both made legitimate arguments in 2009. I may reconsider in the future or expand the list to 25, but I'm not convinced yet. That said, I am going to move Fitzgerald to the top (he was originally No. 2) and I have to actually put Tom Fears (16 catches, 334 yards and three touchdowns in two games in 1950) on the list.
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is having an outstanding postseason -- he has 23 catches for a playoff-record 419 yards and five touchdowns -- with the Super Bowl still to play. He is one of four players (Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Tom Fears) to have three consecutive playoff games with 100-plus receiving yards, and a blog post on NFL.com documents exactly how strong Fitzgerald's start to his playoff career has been.
I thought it would be interesting to compile the other great wide receiver performances in NFL postseason history, so I compiled a completely unscientific top 20 list. I assessed no direct penalty for losing (because wide receivers don't play defense, etc.) although not winning prohibited a deeper postseason run. I rewarded consistency throughout the playoffs, but also weighted any performances in the Super Bowl and conference championships.
21. Wes Welker, New England Patriots, 2007
27 catches, 213 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Welker tied the record for most receptions in a postseason, and became the first to accomplish the feat in three games.
20. Ricky Sanders, Washington Redskins, 1987
15 catches, 285 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Sanders set a Super Bowl record (since passed by Jerry Rice) with 193 receiving yards, scoring twice on nine receptions.
19. Sterling Sharpe, Green Bay Packers, 1993
11 catches, 229 yards, four touchdowns
Two games, lost divisional round
In his only two career playoff games, Sharpe recorded 100-plus yards in each game and scored four of Green Bay's five offensive touchdowns.
18. Michael Irvin, Dallas Cowboys, 1992
18 catches, 288 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Irvin was consistent -- recording six catches for 80-plus yards in each game -- but saved his best performance for last, scoring twice in the Super Bowl.
17. John Stallworth, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1979
12 catches, 259 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Stallworth caught one touchdown in each game, including a 73-yard score in the Steelers' fourth Super Bowl victory of the 1970s.
16. Antonio Freeman, Green Bay Packers, 1997
17 catches, 307 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Freeman picked up steam in each game, culminating in a nine-catch, 126-yard, two-touchdown performance in the Super Bowl.
15. James Lofton, Buffalo Bills, 1990
13 catches, 323 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Lofton caught 12 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns in the two games before the Super Bowl, where he was limited to one 61-yard reception.
14. Isaac Bruce, St. Louis Rams, 1999
13 catches, 316 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Both of Bruce's touchdowns were 70-plus yards, including the game winner with less than three minutes remaining in the Super Bowl.
13. Randy Moss, Minnesota Vikings, 1998
14 catches, 315 yards, three touchdowns
Two games, lost divisional game
Fitzgerald was still a ballboy for the Vikings when Moss caught two touchdowns of 40-plus yards and picked up 188 yards in the divisional loss.
12. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2003
18 catches, 404 yards, three touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl
Smith picked up 298 yards in two games and his 69-yard touchdown catch on the first play of double overtime sent the Panthers to the NFC Championship.
11. Lynn Swann, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1978
13 catches, 274 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
In addition to his seven-reception, 124-yard, one-touchdown performance, Swann made one of the most acrobatic catches in Super Bowl history.
10. Tom Fears, Los Angeles Rams, 1950
16 catches, 334 yards, three touchdowns
Two games, lost NFL championship
Fears scored three consecutive touchdowns (43, 68 and 27 yards) and compiled 198 yards to lift the Rams to the title game.
9. John Stallworth, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1978
14 catches, 278 yards, four touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Stallworth scored in every game, including twice in the Super Bowl, and had a 10-catch, 158-yard performance in the divisional round.
8. Charlie Brown, Washington Redskins, 1983
14 catches, 401 yards, one touchdown
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Brown set the record for most receiving yards in one postseason (he is now fourth all-time), and averaged 28.6 yards per reception.
7. Andre Reed, Buffalo Bills, 1993
19 catches, 313 yards, three touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl
Reed caught three second-half touchdowns in the NFL's best comeback, and his 151 receiving yards in the Super Bowl are the most for any losing player.
6. Anthony Carter, Dallas Cowboys, 1987
23 catches, 391 yards, two touchdowns (1 catch, 1 return)
Three games, lost conference championship
Carter's 227-yard performance in the divisional round set a playoff mark that stood for 11 years, and he added an 87-yard punt return in the wild-card game.
5. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2005
27 catches, 335 yards, five touchdowns (3 catch, 1 rush, 1 return)
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Smith set a playoff record for most catches, recorded a 12-catch, 218-yard receiving performance and became the only player with a receiving, rushing and punt return touchdown in the same postseason.
4. Fred Biletnikoff, Oakland Raiders, 1968
14 catches, 370 yards, four touchdowns
Two games, lost conference championship
Biletnikoff's seven catches for 190 yards and a touchdown in the conference championship was his worst performance of the postseason. He had seven for 180 yards and three touchdowns -- of 24, 44 and 54 yards -- one week prior.
3. Jerry Rice, San Francisco 49ers, 1989
19 catches, 318 yards, five touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Rice is the only player to catch three touchdowns in a Super Bowl (he tied his mark in the 1994 playoffs), catching seven passes for 148 yards. He previously scored twice, including a 73-yard touchdown in the divisional round.
2. Jerry Rice, San Francisco 49ers, 1988
21 catches, 409 yards, six touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Although Fitzgerald broke his postseason yardage record, Rice still has the most receiving touchdowns in a postseason, most receiving yards (215) in a Super Bowl, and is tied for most receptions (11) in a Super Bowl.
1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals, 2008
30 catches, 546 yards, seven touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl
Fitzgerald has set the postseason record for most receiving yards, recorded two games of 150-plus receiving yards and caught three touchdowns in the first half of the NFC Championship to send Arizona to its first Super Bowl.
Nota bene:
- Jerry Rice (Nos. 2 and 3), Steve Smith (Nos. 5 and 11) and John Stallworth (Nos. 9 and 16) are the only wide receivers to make my top 20 list twice.
- NFC teams have a 13 to 7 edge over AFC teams in the number of representatives. The Pittsburgh Steelers are represented three times, while the Green Bay Packers, Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers are all represented twice.
- Sixteen of the 20 players advanced to the Super Bowl -- 8 won, 7 lost and Fitzgerald's Arizona Cardinals face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Feb. 1.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Sorry, Cardinals -- first Super Bowls dismal
Update: The Cardinals came close, but couldn't end a six-game streak of franchises losing their first Super Bowl appearances. Pittsburgh prevailed 27-23, winning in the franchise's eighth Super Bowl trip.
It has been well documented that the Arizona Cardinals are making the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance, leaving only five teams (Detroit, Cleveland, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Houston) to never win their conference championship.
Yet how did the other 26 teams do in their first-ever Super Bowl appearance? Surprisingly, to me at least, not well. I will preface this by saying it seems like the results should be about 50-50 simply because the historical background of a franchise shouldn't impact the very specific events of any given season.
I might have to reconsider that idea, though, after running the numbers.
First-time Super Bowl participants are 8-18 in the big game, a miserable .307 winning percentage that grows even worse once eliminating meetings between two teams making their first Super Bowl appearances (by necessity, one of those had to win and one had to lose, so the data is not very valuable). There have been four such meetings, so the more reliable data shows a record of 4-14, a .222 winnning percentage.
The four first-time Super Bowl teams to beat a more "experienced" franchise? The 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Minnesota Vikings (third appearance), the 1986 New York Giants beat the Denver Broncos (second appearance), the 2000 Baltimore Ravens beat the New York Giants (third appearance) and the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Oakland Raiders (fifth appearance).
Although the sample size is admittedly too small for any real statistical conclusions (I am tempted to analyze the data from the other three major professional sports to fix this), history doesn't bode well for the Cardinals, who face a Steelers team making a record-tying eighth Super Bowl appearance.
It has been well documented that the Arizona Cardinals are making the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance, leaving only five teams (Detroit, Cleveland, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Houston) to never win their conference championship.
Yet how did the other 26 teams do in their first-ever Super Bowl appearance? Surprisingly, to me at least, not well. I will preface this by saying it seems like the results should be about 50-50 simply because the historical background of a franchise shouldn't impact the very specific events of any given season.
I might have to reconsider that idea, though, after running the numbers.
First-time Super Bowl participants are 8-18 in the big game, a miserable .307 winning percentage that grows even worse once eliminating meetings between two teams making their first Super Bowl appearances (by necessity, one of those had to win and one had to lose, so the data is not very valuable). There have been four such meetings, so the more reliable data shows a record of 4-14, a .222 winnning percentage.
The four first-time Super Bowl teams to beat a more "experienced" franchise? The 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Minnesota Vikings (third appearance), the 1986 New York Giants beat the Denver Broncos (second appearance), the 2000 Baltimore Ravens beat the New York Giants (third appearance) and the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Oakland Raiders (fifth appearance).
Although the sample size is admittedly too small for any real statistical conclusions (I am tempted to analyze the data from the other three major professional sports to fix this), history doesn't bode well for the Cardinals, who face a Steelers team making a record-tying eighth Super Bowl appearance.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Live-blogging the AFC Championship
In order for my post not to grow from gigantic to gargantuan, I'm making a separate one for the AFC Championship game. I'll try to learn from my initial venture, and put the most recent updates at the top. And, I didn't really realize the game started at 5:30 so I missed the first half of the first quarter while eating dinner. Sorry!
Steelers 23, Ravens 14
Final
As I'll try to explore later, Joe Flacco did not have a very good season in my opinion. Just because he's a rookie, I don't really see the need to pretend that he is a future Hall of Famer. When the Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2001, pundits considered Trent Dilfer the worst Super Bowl quarterback ever, even though I'm sure his statistics are comparable (mediocre, at best) to Flacco this season.
That being said, Flacco is just a rookie. It takes time to get used the NFL, and I read a revealing explanation somewhere that said Flacco has essentially played two consecutive college seasons this year because he has played 19 games. Roethlisberger lost his first conference championship game, in his first season, but has since won the Super Bowl and is now going back for his second appearance.
That's all for tonight, but I'll try to post several times this week.
Steelers 23, Ravens 14
Fourth quarter, 4:00
Baltimore made a determined effort to block the extra-point attempt, because now it's a two possession game. The atmosphere on the field, in the stadium, and in the broadcasting booth is somber during the final minutes after Ravens running back Willis McGahee was carted off with what appears to be a serious injury.
Steelers 16, Ravens 14
Fourth quarter, 12:00
That opening reverse -- that's an actual reverse; what you typically see is an end-around -- was exactly what the Ravens needed for a spark to put together a touchdown drive. Polamulu jumped over the lines again, but Ravens running back Willis McGahee snuck to the outside and ended the play as one of the few players on the field still standing.
Steelers 16, Ravens 7
Fourth quarter, 15:00
I really am not biased against defense, but it is admittedly harder to write about than the offensive side of the ball. I'll lay some blame on television, which focuses on the offense, and some on myself. Now that it's a two-possession game, the Ravens really need to get points of some sort on their next drive. Neither team has really been able to run the ball, so Baltimore shouldn't be too afraid of Pittsburgh running out the clock, but time is not to their advantage.
Steelers 13, Ravens 7
Third quarter, 10:00
It's still anybody's game, and was that really unexpected? Both regular-season meetings between the teams were close, and this game remains within one possession. My one prediction? Ben Roethlisberger has extended plays with his feet, but he's going to throw an interception or lose a fumble by being less aware of his surroundings at least once during the remainder of the game. He almost did on the latest sack, and then gained the presence of mind to go down willingly.
Steelers 13, Ravens 7
Halftime
Pittsburgh definitely left some points on the field at the end of the half with some bad clock management. That's quite the faux pas in any game, particularly one that will likely be low scoring.
Steelers wide receiver partially made up for his dropped pass with a devastating block a few plays later -- the rookie is clearly learning from Hines Ward, who is known as the best blocking wide receiver in the league.
Steelers 13, Ravens 0
Second quarter, 14:00
There's one such big play. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger kept another play alive with his feet, and although the coverage was excellent, everything fell into place during Santonio Holmes' touchdown run. The blocks downfield by his fellow wide receivers weren't excellent, but their effort caused enough distractions.
Steelers 6, Ravens 0
Second quarter, 15:00
Steelers safety Troy Polamalu might have been the first player in NFL history to make a tackle while being completely suspended in the air. His efforts on both third- and fourth-down stops were largely cosmetic, but they embody the attitude of the defense.
This game will most likely remain low-scoring, so it could very well be one big play -- a punt return, long reception or blocked field goal -- that makes the difference. And although we like to unfairly weight plays that occur in the fourth quarter, that play can come at any time in the game, and provide some important momentum.
Steelers 6, Ravens 0
First quarter, 2:00
Baltimore only has eight yards of offense as rookie quarterback Joe Flacco has struggled, going 1-for-7 with an interception so far. Pittsburgh's offense doesn't look great statistically but it has been efficient enough to drive down the field. Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis makes the big play the Ravens needed, forcing a fumble.
Steelers 6, Ravens 0
First quarter, 6:30
What an interesting situation to see Steelers coach Mike Tomlin throw the challenge flag, only to be pre-empted by Ravens coach John Harbaugh. Great call by Harbaugh. What seemed to be a Steelers touchdown, or their ball at the 1-yard-line turned into another field goal attempt.
The CBS announcers didn't seem aware of this, but Bill Carrolo was providing information to another official at the instant replay booth to make sure the call wouldn't be misrepresented once the referee returned to the field of play, a problem that occurred when Pittsburgh beat San Diego 11-10 in the regular season.
Steelers 23, Ravens 14
Final
As I'll try to explore later, Joe Flacco did not have a very good season in my opinion. Just because he's a rookie, I don't really see the need to pretend that he is a future Hall of Famer. When the Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2001, pundits considered Trent Dilfer the worst Super Bowl quarterback ever, even though I'm sure his statistics are comparable (mediocre, at best) to Flacco this season.
That being said, Flacco is just a rookie. It takes time to get used the NFL, and I read a revealing explanation somewhere that said Flacco has essentially played two consecutive college seasons this year because he has played 19 games. Roethlisberger lost his first conference championship game, in his first season, but has since won the Super Bowl and is now going back for his second appearance.
That's all for tonight, but I'll try to post several times this week.
Steelers 23, Ravens 14
Fourth quarter, 4:00
Baltimore made a determined effort to block the extra-point attempt, because now it's a two possession game. The atmosphere on the field, in the stadium, and in the broadcasting booth is somber during the final minutes after Ravens running back Willis McGahee was carted off with what appears to be a serious injury.
Steelers 16, Ravens 14
Fourth quarter, 12:00
That opening reverse -- that's an actual reverse; what you typically see is an end-around -- was exactly what the Ravens needed for a spark to put together a touchdown drive. Polamulu jumped over the lines again, but Ravens running back Willis McGahee snuck to the outside and ended the play as one of the few players on the field still standing.
Steelers 16, Ravens 7
Fourth quarter, 15:00
I really am not biased against defense, but it is admittedly harder to write about than the offensive side of the ball. I'll lay some blame on television, which focuses on the offense, and some on myself. Now that it's a two-possession game, the Ravens really need to get points of some sort on their next drive. Neither team has really been able to run the ball, so Baltimore shouldn't be too afraid of Pittsburgh running out the clock, but time is not to their advantage.
Steelers 13, Ravens 7
Third quarter, 10:00
It's still anybody's game, and was that really unexpected? Both regular-season meetings between the teams were close, and this game remains within one possession. My one prediction? Ben Roethlisberger has extended plays with his feet, but he's going to throw an interception or lose a fumble by being less aware of his surroundings at least once during the remainder of the game. He almost did on the latest sack, and then gained the presence of mind to go down willingly.
Steelers 13, Ravens 7
Halftime
Pittsburgh definitely left some points on the field at the end of the half with some bad clock management. That's quite the faux pas in any game, particularly one that will likely be low scoring.
Steelers wide receiver partially made up for his dropped pass with a devastating block a few plays later -- the rookie is clearly learning from Hines Ward, who is known as the best blocking wide receiver in the league.
Steelers 13, Ravens 0
Second quarter, 14:00
There's one such big play. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger kept another play alive with his feet, and although the coverage was excellent, everything fell into place during Santonio Holmes' touchdown run. The blocks downfield by his fellow wide receivers weren't excellent, but their effort caused enough distractions.
Steelers 6, Ravens 0
Second quarter, 15:00
Steelers safety Troy Polamalu might have been the first player in NFL history to make a tackle while being completely suspended in the air. His efforts on both third- and fourth-down stops were largely cosmetic, but they embody the attitude of the defense.
This game will most likely remain low-scoring, so it could very well be one big play -- a punt return, long reception or blocked field goal -- that makes the difference. And although we like to unfairly weight plays that occur in the fourth quarter, that play can come at any time in the game, and provide some important momentum.
Steelers 6, Ravens 0
First quarter, 2:00
Baltimore only has eight yards of offense as rookie quarterback Joe Flacco has struggled, going 1-for-7 with an interception so far. Pittsburgh's offense doesn't look great statistically but it has been efficient enough to drive down the field. Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis makes the big play the Ravens needed, forcing a fumble.
Steelers 6, Ravens 0
First quarter, 6:30
What an interesting situation to see Steelers coach Mike Tomlin throw the challenge flag, only to be pre-empted by Ravens coach John Harbaugh. Great call by Harbaugh. What seemed to be a Steelers touchdown, or their ball at the 1-yard-line turned into another field goal attempt.
The CBS announcers didn't seem aware of this, but Bill Carrolo was providing information to another official at the instant replay booth to make sure the call wouldn't be misrepresented once the referee returned to the field of play, a problem that occurred when Pittsburgh beat San Diego 11-10 in the regular season.
Live-blogging the NFC Championship
Correction: Kurt Warner has actually had three games with perfect regular season passer ratings -- I missed his 2000 performance on first glance. Peyton Manning holds the record with four, and Ben Roethlisberger also has three.
Hello to the rare RSS feeds out there that get this blog's posts. I'll be updating throughout the day as I watch the NFC and AFC conference championships, two of the few games I will get to watch all season because of my work schedule. The Cardinals host the Eagles, with kickoff imminent, and the Steelers host the Ravens.
NFC Championship: Cardinals vs. Eagles
Cardinals 0, Eagles 0
First quarter, 10:00
Arizona's first third-down scenario sets the tone, and says everything about the Cardinals offense. Facing a third-and-1, Kurt Warner lines up in a shotgun formation with three wide receivers. Eschewing the run, Larry Fitzgerald catches a short pass on a crossing pattern and picks up 19 yards. Arizona will live, and die, by the pass.
From a similar formation a few plays later, Edgerrin James picks up a first down on a 16-yard draw. That's the plan for the Cardinals, using the pass to set up the run.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 0
First quarter, 9:30
Picture perfect. Fitzgerald scored on another drag route, a similar play from his earlier first down and last week's diving touchdown against the Carolina Panthers. The Cardinals clearly couldn't have asked for a better opening drive: Warner went 4 for 4 and James picked up 33 yards on the ground on four carries.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
First quarter, 4:45
Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb, who showed some agility with a 21-yard run on the Eagles' opening drive, has one 100-yard rushing game in 14 postseason starts. Arizona's James, a running back, only has two in 11 postseason games.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
First quarter, 2:00
McNabb = bad pass. Aaron Francisco = good tip drill. Francisco = good return. DeSean Jackson = good hustle. Francisco = bad fumble. Jon Runyan = good recovery. Jackson did an excellent job of not giving up after the interception, even running around defenders-turned-blockers in order to sneak back into the play, forcing the fumble.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
Second quarter, 13:30
Philadelphia is content picking up one first down at a time, and it's not a bad strategy to run (or short pass) down the clock when you are facing a potentially explosive offense. Arizona was fourth in the NFL in scoring offense in the regular season, averaging 26.7 points per game. Philadelphia, however, wasn't much worse, finishing sixth with an average of 26.0 points per game.
Cardinals 14, Eagles 3
Second quarter, 13:20
Yikes. Arizona obviously didn't want to have Philadelphia stick around, pulling out a trick play that worked to perfection. Unlike Fox announcer Troy Aikman, I agree on the roughing the passer call -- Warner had released the ball several seconds before getting hit. Larry Fitzgerald is definitely making the case that he is the best wide receiver in the league (I would also throw Houston's Andre Johnson into the discussion). Fitzgerald now has nine career games with two touchdown receptions, but the five-year veteran has never had three in one game.
Cardinals 14, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 9:00
Don't completely discount Philadelphia's field goals. They would obviously rather score touchdowns, but putting points of any type on the board keeps their heads in the game, and maintains pressure on Arizona to continue scoring.
Cardinals 21, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 3:00
And there is Fitzgerald's first three-touchdown performance, in one half no less. It is not exaggeration to say that we are witnessing one of the greatest postseasons by a wide receiver in NFL history, and I am anxious to investigate that after the game. The fade to Fitzgerald on first down is a great call because if Warner sees that there isn't anything there, he will just throw the ball too high knowing that he has two (if not three) more downs to work with.
Warner is showing off that quick release that infatuated the nation during his Cinderella rookie season in 1998. Honed within the small confines of the Arena Football League's playing field, his ability to get rid of the ball quickly is a wonderful asset used to expose the holes left by blitzing defenders.
Cardinals 21, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 2:00
That's a tough, tough call for Arizona because it certainly seems like they should have possession of the ball. It's interesting to me that the officials stuck to what they felt was the correct call instead of erring on the side of caution. They ruled that the ball touched a Philadelphia player and then went out of bounds, ending the play and making the apparent recovery nonreviewable. If they had ruled that the ball stayed in bounds, it would have kept the play reviewable, but would force Philadelphia to challenge the call.
The Fox announcers just said that Warner has a perfect passer rating (158.3) in the first half. His career best in the postseason is a 143.0 passer rating in a 49-37 divisional win over the Minnesota Vikings in 2000, a game in which he threw for 391 yards and five touchdowns. Warner had 'perfect" regular-season games in 1999, 2000 and earlier this season. He is ranked fourth in career passer rating, but note that the statistic has been hijacked by the differences in the modern passing game -- 19 of the top 24 players on the list are active.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 6
Halftime
Some quick tidbits: Nobody has ever recorded four receiving touchdowns in a playoff game, and Larry Fitzgerald joins a list of 10 other players who have caught three -- Jerry Rice accomplished the feat three separate times, including twice in the Super Bowl. As previewed in an earlier post, Fitzgerald has also become the fourth receiver with consecutive 100-plus receiving yards in three consecutive playoff games.
The Eagles have not played terribly in the fist half, but it appears the Cardinals have once again been inspired by a raucous crowd not accustomed to the playoffs. Arizona only had nine wins in the regular season, but six of them were at home.
Also, the Eagles score at halftime in McNabb's five conference championship games? 17-10 lead in 2002, 17-10 deficit in 2003, 7-3 deficit in 2004, 14-10 lead in 2005 and 24-6 deficit in 2008. Their only win (so far) came in 2005.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 6
Third quarter, 12:00
Things are spiraling out of control for the Eagles, who wasted a couple of nice receptions and first downs with a fumble by McNabb on a nice cornerback blitz. It's hard to even find something good to say about Philadelphia at this point. Arizona has been utterly dominant with no real mistakes, making anything positive that Philadelphia manages seem drab in comparison.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 13
Third quarter, 4:00
A nice catch by Eagles tight end Brent Celek for Philadelphia's first touchdown. After 26 catches in a 16-game regular season, Celek has 17 catches in three playoff games (he has a team-high eight so far today). Most tight ends serve as security blankets in the passing game, so it says a lot that Celek has almost half of McNabb's completions today.
That being said, this game is now a lot close on the scoreboard than it feels. The Eagles are still very much alive, and the Cardinals would bode well to reinstitute their running game and put together a time-consuming drive in response.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 13
Third quarter, 3:45
That was the worst nightmare for the Cardinals. They went three-and-out, took no time off the clock and provided the Eagles some energy by allowing Warner to get pressured into two incompletions before being sacked on third down. Arizona has negative four yards in the second half, and needs to focus on picking up first downs.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 19
Fourth quarter, 15:00
When was the last time you saw the best offensive player on your team -- Celek, now with nine receptions, 78 yards and two touchdowns -- line up to block for the extra point? It didn't seem to matter, as Akers missed his first extra point of the season. As anyone who has seen Ace Ventura: Pet Detective knows, the fact that the laces were in on the hold certainly didn't help as Akers pulled the ball right.
I support the decision not to go for the two-point conversion because there is still a full quarter to play, and it's only a one-possession game. And let's not ignore the humorous block by Hank Baskett on the Celek touchdown -- he took out two defenders with one push near the goal line.
And, no, that was not Warner's first reception of his career. He caught a pass, presumably from himself, for zero yards in a 2005 game with the Cardinals.
Eagles 25, Cardinals 24
Fourth quarter, 11:00
Wow. Philadelphia has done everything right in the second half, mixing the pass and the run while still taking the occasional shot downfield. It worked that time -- McNabb had so much time after rolling out that the entire offensive line was literally standing still on the opposite side of the field when he threw the ball. Nice concentration by Jackson, a rookie, on the touchdown catch.
It might sound hypocritical, but I do support the decision to go for the two-point conversion after this touchdown because the difference between a two- and three-point lead at this stage is much "greater" than a five- and four-point deficit earlier.
Cardinals 32, Eagles 25
Fourth quarter, 3:00
What a game this has turned out to be, and I'm sure Fox is breathing a sigh of relief after thinking they would be televising a blowout. The Cardinals were content running down the clock and taking the field goal if necessary, but ended up getting a touchdown on a safe screen pass. The two-point conversion is definitely the correct call at this stage in the game -- up by five with less than three minutes remaining.
And, I don't think Arizona should have attempted the fourth-and-1 near midfield earlier in the drive. At the time, there was more than seven minutes remaining in the game, plenty of time for one -- if not two -- defensive stops.
As the Fox graphic showed, Fitzgerald also passed Rice for the most receiving yards in a single postseason on this drive. Without him, it's hard to believe Arizona would be in this position. They would probably still be in the playoffs, because they played in weak division, but he is a legitimate game-changer.
Cardinals 32, Eagles 25
Final
McNabb did a good job trying to pick up a few yards on third down, knowing that they would go for it on fourth, but defensive pressure caused him to throw the ball behind Baskett. On fourth down, Curtis spent more effort trying to get a pass interference flag thrown than actually catching the ball, one of my biggest pet peeves. I am kind of surprised that pass interference wasn't called -- I don't think it necessarily was, but I think officials tend to call it, especially in these situations.
It was a terrible decision on the part of Darnell Dockett, the Cardinal who recovered the fumble on Philadelphia's last-gasp lateral-fest, to not go directly to the ground. I understand that he was excited but it's rude to try to score a last-second touchdown, and most importantly, incredibly stupid. A fumble by him recovered by Philadelphia for a touchdown would go down as possibly the most foolish play in sports history.
But that's nitpicking. Arizona played a better game than Philadelphia (barely) and Warner, not McNabb, drastically increased his Hall of Fame chances. Many more, coherent, thoughts on the NFC Championship at a later date.
Hello to the rare RSS feeds out there that get this blog's posts. I'll be updating throughout the day as I watch the NFC and AFC conference championships, two of the few games I will get to watch all season because of my work schedule. The Cardinals host the Eagles, with kickoff imminent, and the Steelers host the Ravens.
NFC Championship: Cardinals vs. Eagles
Cardinals 0, Eagles 0
First quarter, 10:00
Arizona's first third-down scenario sets the tone, and says everything about the Cardinals offense. Facing a third-and-1, Kurt Warner lines up in a shotgun formation with three wide receivers. Eschewing the run, Larry Fitzgerald catches a short pass on a crossing pattern and picks up 19 yards. Arizona will live, and die, by the pass.
From a similar formation a few plays later, Edgerrin James picks up a first down on a 16-yard draw. That's the plan for the Cardinals, using the pass to set up the run.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 0
First quarter, 9:30
Picture perfect. Fitzgerald scored on another drag route, a similar play from his earlier first down and last week's diving touchdown against the Carolina Panthers. The Cardinals clearly couldn't have asked for a better opening drive: Warner went 4 for 4 and James picked up 33 yards on the ground on four carries.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
First quarter, 4:45
Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb, who showed some agility with a 21-yard run on the Eagles' opening drive, has one 100-yard rushing game in 14 postseason starts. Arizona's James, a running back, only has two in 11 postseason games.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
First quarter, 2:00
McNabb = bad pass. Aaron Francisco = good tip drill. Francisco = good return. DeSean Jackson = good hustle. Francisco = bad fumble. Jon Runyan = good recovery. Jackson did an excellent job of not giving up after the interception, even running around defenders-turned-blockers in order to sneak back into the play, forcing the fumble.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
Second quarter, 13:30
Philadelphia is content picking up one first down at a time, and it's not a bad strategy to run (or short pass) down the clock when you are facing a potentially explosive offense. Arizona was fourth in the NFL in scoring offense in the regular season, averaging 26.7 points per game. Philadelphia, however, wasn't much worse, finishing sixth with an average of 26.0 points per game.
Cardinals 14, Eagles 3
Second quarter, 13:20
Yikes. Arizona obviously didn't want to have Philadelphia stick around, pulling out a trick play that worked to perfection. Unlike Fox announcer Troy Aikman, I agree on the roughing the passer call -- Warner had released the ball several seconds before getting hit. Larry Fitzgerald is definitely making the case that he is the best wide receiver in the league (I would also throw Houston's Andre Johnson into the discussion). Fitzgerald now has nine career games with two touchdown receptions, but the five-year veteran has never had three in one game.
Cardinals 14, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 9:00
Don't completely discount Philadelphia's field goals. They would obviously rather score touchdowns, but putting points of any type on the board keeps their heads in the game, and maintains pressure on Arizona to continue scoring.
Cardinals 21, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 3:00
And there is Fitzgerald's first three-touchdown performance, in one half no less. It is not exaggeration to say that we are witnessing one of the greatest postseasons by a wide receiver in NFL history, and I am anxious to investigate that after the game. The fade to Fitzgerald on first down is a great call because if Warner sees that there isn't anything there, he will just throw the ball too high knowing that he has two (if not three) more downs to work with.
Warner is showing off that quick release that infatuated the nation during his Cinderella rookie season in 1998. Honed within the small confines of the Arena Football League's playing field, his ability to get rid of the ball quickly is a wonderful asset used to expose the holes left by blitzing defenders.
Cardinals 21, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 2:00
That's a tough, tough call for Arizona because it certainly seems like they should have possession of the ball. It's interesting to me that the officials stuck to what they felt was the correct call instead of erring on the side of caution. They ruled that the ball touched a Philadelphia player and then went out of bounds, ending the play and making the apparent recovery nonreviewable. If they had ruled that the ball stayed in bounds, it would have kept the play reviewable, but would force Philadelphia to challenge the call.
The Fox announcers just said that Warner has a perfect passer rating (158.3) in the first half. His career best in the postseason is a 143.0 passer rating in a 49-37 divisional win over the Minnesota Vikings in 2000, a game in which he threw for 391 yards and five touchdowns. Warner had 'perfect" regular-season games in 1999, 2000 and earlier this season. He is ranked fourth in career passer rating, but note that the statistic has been hijacked by the differences in the modern passing game -- 19 of the top 24 players on the list are active.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 6
Halftime
Some quick tidbits: Nobody has ever recorded four receiving touchdowns in a playoff game, and Larry Fitzgerald joins a list of 10 other players who have caught three -- Jerry Rice accomplished the feat three separate times, including twice in the Super Bowl. As previewed in an earlier post, Fitzgerald has also become the fourth receiver with consecutive 100-plus receiving yards in three consecutive playoff games.
The Eagles have not played terribly in the fist half, but it appears the Cardinals have once again been inspired by a raucous crowd not accustomed to the playoffs. Arizona only had nine wins in the regular season, but six of them were at home.
Also, the Eagles score at halftime in McNabb's five conference championship games? 17-10 lead in 2002, 17-10 deficit in 2003, 7-3 deficit in 2004, 14-10 lead in 2005 and 24-6 deficit in 2008. Their only win (so far) came in 2005.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 6
Third quarter, 12:00
Things are spiraling out of control for the Eagles, who wasted a couple of nice receptions and first downs with a fumble by McNabb on a nice cornerback blitz. It's hard to even find something good to say about Philadelphia at this point. Arizona has been utterly dominant with no real mistakes, making anything positive that Philadelphia manages seem drab in comparison.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 13
Third quarter, 4:00
A nice catch by Eagles tight end Brent Celek for Philadelphia's first touchdown. After 26 catches in a 16-game regular season, Celek has 17 catches in three playoff games (he has a team-high eight so far today). Most tight ends serve as security blankets in the passing game, so it says a lot that Celek has almost half of McNabb's completions today.
That being said, this game is now a lot close on the scoreboard than it feels. The Eagles are still very much alive, and the Cardinals would bode well to reinstitute their running game and put together a time-consuming drive in response.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 13
Third quarter, 3:45
That was the worst nightmare for the Cardinals. They went three-and-out, took no time off the clock and provided the Eagles some energy by allowing Warner to get pressured into two incompletions before being sacked on third down. Arizona has negative four yards in the second half, and needs to focus on picking up first downs.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 19
Fourth quarter, 15:00
When was the last time you saw the best offensive player on your team -- Celek, now with nine receptions, 78 yards and two touchdowns -- line up to block for the extra point? It didn't seem to matter, as Akers missed his first extra point of the season. As anyone who has seen Ace Ventura: Pet Detective knows, the fact that the laces were in on the hold certainly didn't help as Akers pulled the ball right.
I support the decision not to go for the two-point conversion because there is still a full quarter to play, and it's only a one-possession game. And let's not ignore the humorous block by Hank Baskett on the Celek touchdown -- he took out two defenders with one push near the goal line.
And, no, that was not Warner's first reception of his career. He caught a pass, presumably from himself, for zero yards in a 2005 game with the Cardinals.
Eagles 25, Cardinals 24
Fourth quarter, 11:00
Wow. Philadelphia has done everything right in the second half, mixing the pass and the run while still taking the occasional shot downfield. It worked that time -- McNabb had so much time after rolling out that the entire offensive line was literally standing still on the opposite side of the field when he threw the ball. Nice concentration by Jackson, a rookie, on the touchdown catch.
It might sound hypocritical, but I do support the decision to go for the two-point conversion after this touchdown because the difference between a two- and three-point lead at this stage is much "greater" than a five- and four-point deficit earlier.
Cardinals 32, Eagles 25
Fourth quarter, 3:00
What a game this has turned out to be, and I'm sure Fox is breathing a sigh of relief after thinking they would be televising a blowout. The Cardinals were content running down the clock and taking the field goal if necessary, but ended up getting a touchdown on a safe screen pass. The two-point conversion is definitely the correct call at this stage in the game -- up by five with less than three minutes remaining.
And, I don't think Arizona should have attempted the fourth-and-1 near midfield earlier in the drive. At the time, there was more than seven minutes remaining in the game, plenty of time for one -- if not two -- defensive stops.
As the Fox graphic showed, Fitzgerald also passed Rice for the most receiving yards in a single postseason on this drive. Without him, it's hard to believe Arizona would be in this position. They would probably still be in the playoffs, because they played in weak division, but he is a legitimate game-changer.
Cardinals 32, Eagles 25
Final
McNabb did a good job trying to pick up a few yards on third down, knowing that they would go for it on fourth, but defensive pressure caused him to throw the ball behind Baskett. On fourth down, Curtis spent more effort trying to get a pass interference flag thrown than actually catching the ball, one of my biggest pet peeves. I am kind of surprised that pass interference wasn't called -- I don't think it necessarily was, but I think officials tend to call it, especially in these situations.
It was a terrible decision on the part of Darnell Dockett, the Cardinal who recovered the fumble on Philadelphia's last-gasp lateral-fest, to not go directly to the ground. I understand that he was excited but it's rude to try to score a last-second touchdown, and most importantly, incredibly stupid. A fumble by him recovered by Philadelphia for a touchdown would go down as possibly the most foolish play in sports history.
But that's nitpicking. Arizona played a better game than Philadelphia (barely) and Warner, not McNabb, drastically increased his Hall of Fame chances. Many more, coherent, thoughts on the NFC Championship at a later date.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Does Hall of Fame await Dungy?
Update: Added the thoughts of Sports Illustrated's Peter King, who responded to a question about Dungy's Hall of Fame chances in his Tuesday Morning Quarterback mailbag.
Update: Added a chart detailing the coaching records of Hall of Fame coaches.
Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy retired Monday after a 31-year NFL career as both a player and a coach. He leaves with an impressive coaching resume: one Super Bowl victory, six consecutive seasons with 12-plus wins and 10 consecutive postseason berths, a post-merger record.
But will he make the Hall of Fame?
Dungy doesn't have instant Hall of Fame credentials -- he didn't rack up 200-plus wins, he didn't win three-plus NFL titles and he didn't fundamentally change the game. Coaches with those numbers to their credit, like Don Shula, Curly Lambeau and Tom Landry, are inducted almost immediately.
Other coaches with similar pedigrees to Dungy, however, were eventually inducted into Canton after a lengthy waiting period. George Allen was posthumously elected in 2002, 25 years after he retired, and John Madden didn't get in until 2006, 29 years after he left the game.
I haven't decided yet if I think Dungy should make the Hall of Fame, but I think he probably will. I'll explain why by quickly looking at the three criteria I think voters use: On-field performance, long-term impact on the NFL, and to a lesser degree, personal intangibles.
On-field performance
Dungy coached the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 1996 to 2001 and the Indianapolis Colts from 2002 to 2008. He finished his 13-year head coaching career with a 139-69-0 regular season record and a 9-10 postseason record, including a victory in Super Bowl XLI. He also won Super Bowl XIII as a role player for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but of the 21 coaches inducted in the Hall of Fame, only the six pre-modern inductees (before 1946) are also recognized for their playing careers.
The Indianapolis Star chronicles how Dungy's coaching record ranks among the best ever in terms of career wins.
Of the other nine coaches with the top regular-season winning percentage, only two (Blanton Collier and George Siefert) aren't already in the Hall of Fame. Of the 13 coaches with 10-plus playoff appearances, only six aren't (Marty Schottenheimer, Mike Holmgren, Dungy, Chuck Knox, Bill Parcells, Bill Cowher). Of the 21 coaches with 130-plus wins only 10 aren't (Schottenheimer, Noll, Dan Reeves, Knox, Parcells, Holmgren, Cowher, Mike Shanahan, Dungy, Bill Belichick).
And many of those coaches are contemporaries, some of whom will certainly be inducted. But that is part of Dungy's problem. Because he is not a no-doubt-about-it Hall of Famer, his candidacy will be weighed against those of Belichick (3 NFL titles), Parcells (2), Shanahan (2) Holmgren (1), Shanahan (1), Cowher (1) and Schottenheimer (200-plus wins), who all have equally -- if not more -- compelling arguments.
Dungy, however, should be recognized for turning around the fortunes of two franchises that were among the laughingstocks of the league before he arrived. Tampa Bay had only two winning seasons among its first 20, but five during Dungy's seven years with the team. After moving to Indianapolis in 1984, the Colts only had two 10-win seasons in the 17 years before Dungy arrived -- they went seven-for-seven after. (It should be noted that all nine of those seasons came under the tutelage of future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning.)
Long-term NFL impact
This phenomena explains why the Hall of Fame is weighted to pre-merger coaches. By definition, they had the greatest potential to impact the future of the NFL, and several did by introducing things now considered basic -- the forward pass, the two-platoon system, film study, etc.
Nothing that crucial will be attached to Dungy's legacy, but his adaptation of the Cover 2 defense, and his low-key coaching attitude has already made an influence thanks to his coaching tree -- four of the 32 current NFL head coaches served as an assistant under Dungy. Most symbolic for many of the voters may be the fact that Dungy is the first black coach to win a Super Bowl.
Intangibles
This is where Dungy shines above the rest of his competition. Because media members vote on Hall of Famers, having a congenial relationship with the press can become the tipping point -- for or against -- a candidate's induction.
Upon Dungy's retirement, members of the media -- which tend to be critical, if not cynical -- posted opinions en masse that Dungy was a great person regardless of his success as a football coach. Impervious to an NFL growing more chaotic by the season, Dungy made time for his family, his players, and yes, the media during his entire career, and his friendly demeanor should serve him well when voting commences.
Sports Illustrated's Peter King, one of the 44 voters for the Hall of Fame (like Supreme Court justices, they cannot be removed -- they simply retire or die) had this to say about Dungy's chances in a recent column:
Update: Added a chart detailing the coaching records of Hall of Fame coaches.
Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy retired Monday after a 31-year NFL career as both a player and a coach. He leaves with an impressive coaching resume: one Super Bowl victory, six consecutive seasons with 12-plus wins and 10 consecutive postseason berths, a post-merger record.
But will he make the Hall of Fame?
Dungy doesn't have instant Hall of Fame credentials -- he didn't rack up 200-plus wins, he didn't win three-plus NFL titles and he didn't fundamentally change the game. Coaches with those numbers to their credit, like Don Shula, Curly Lambeau and Tom Landry, are inducted almost immediately.
Other coaches with similar pedigrees to Dungy, however, were eventually inducted into Canton after a lengthy waiting period. George Allen was posthumously elected in 2002, 25 years after he retired, and John Madden didn't get in until 2006, 29 years after he left the game.
I haven't decided yet if I think Dungy should make the Hall of Fame, but I think he probably will. I'll explain why by quickly looking at the three criteria I think voters use: On-field performance, long-term impact on the NFL, and to a lesser degree, personal intangibles.
On-field performance
Dungy coached the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 1996 to 2001 and the Indianapolis Colts from 2002 to 2008. He finished his 13-year head coaching career with a 139-69-0 regular season record and a 9-10 postseason record, including a victory in Super Bowl XLI. He also won Super Bowl XIII as a role player for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but of the 21 coaches inducted in the Hall of Fame, only the six pre-modern inductees (before 1946) are also recognized for their playing careers.
The Indianapolis Star chronicles how Dungy's coaching record ranks among the best ever in terms of career wins.
Of the other nine coaches with the top regular-season winning percentage, only two (Blanton Collier and George Siefert) aren't already in the Hall of Fame. Of the 13 coaches with 10-plus playoff appearances, only six aren't (Marty Schottenheimer, Mike Holmgren, Dungy, Chuck Knox, Bill Parcells, Bill Cowher). Of the 21 coaches with 130-plus wins only 10 aren't (Schottenheimer, Noll, Dan Reeves, Knox, Parcells, Holmgren, Cowher, Mike Shanahan, Dungy, Bill Belichick).
And many of those coaches are contemporaries, some of whom will certainly be inducted. But that is part of Dungy's problem. Because he is not a no-doubt-about-it Hall of Famer, his candidacy will be weighed against those of Belichick (3 NFL titles), Parcells (2), Shanahan (2) Holmgren (1), Shanahan (1), Cowher (1) and Schottenheimer (200-plus wins), who all have equally -- if not more -- compelling arguments.
Dungy, however, should be recognized for turning around the fortunes of two franchises that were among the laughingstocks of the league before he arrived. Tampa Bay had only two winning seasons among its first 20, but five during Dungy's seven years with the team. After moving to Indianapolis in 1984, the Colts only had two 10-win seasons in the 17 years before Dungy arrived -- they went seven-for-seven after. (It should be noted that all nine of those seasons came under the tutelage of future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning.)
Long-term NFL impact
This phenomena explains why the Hall of Fame is weighted to pre-merger coaches. By definition, they had the greatest potential to impact the future of the NFL, and several did by introducing things now considered basic -- the forward pass, the two-platoon system, film study, etc.
Nothing that crucial will be attached to Dungy's legacy, but his adaptation of the Cover 2 defense, and his low-key coaching attitude has already made an influence thanks to his coaching tree -- four of the 32 current NFL head coaches served as an assistant under Dungy. Most symbolic for many of the voters may be the fact that Dungy is the first black coach to win a Super Bowl.
Intangibles
This is where Dungy shines above the rest of his competition. Because media members vote on Hall of Famers, having a congenial relationship with the press can become the tipping point -- for or against -- a candidate's induction.
Upon Dungy's retirement, members of the media -- which tend to be critical, if not cynical -- posted opinions en masse that Dungy was a great person regardless of his success as a football coach. Impervious to an NFL growing more chaotic by the season, Dungy made time for his family, his players, and yes, the media during his entire career, and his friendly demeanor should serve him well when voting commences.
Sports Illustrated's Peter King, one of the 44 voters for the Hall of Fame (like Supreme Court justices, they cannot be removed -- they simply retire or die) had this to say about Dungy's chances in a recent column:
THE WORST THING TO DO IS CALL SOMEONE A LOCK, BUT I WOULD LEAN TOWARD DUNGY.
The Dungy case is very interesting, and I think the pioneering aspect of it is significant -- very significant. As a coach, Dungy has a good case -- 10 straight years of directing his team to the playoffs (both with a quarterback and without one), nine of his last 10 years winning double-digits, a Super Bowl title. As a pioneer, being the first black coach to win a Super Bowl is an important historic accomplishment in a league in which two-thirds of the players are black. For too long the league lagged far behind in the hiring of minorities to be head coaches. He's a beacon, and so many coaches from the NFL to Pop Warner look up to him as their primary role model. It's not quite Namath willing the AFL to a Super Bowl win and pro football equality, but I think it's close.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Wednesday Morning Quarterback
I'm working on a post about the Hall of Fame chances of now-retired coach Tony Dungy, but this will have to do in the meantime.
For the most part, I agree with Gregg Easterbrook, who writes a weekly column at ESPN.com during the football season called "Tuesday Morning Quarterback." I do want to point out a portion from his most recent column, however, with which I vehemently disagree.
I'm all for breaking trends because it's one way to gain a competitive advantage in football, and because I think the status quo is not always the correct strategy. Easterbrook makes these points often, and well. In this case, however, I think his analysis of the Titans' decision is shortsighted.
In the regular season, the Tennessee Titans (14.6 points per game) and Baltimore Ravens (15.2) finished second and third, respectively, for average defensive points allowed. Both teams were also among the lowest-scoring offenses -- Titans, 23.4; Ravens, 24.1 -- that qualified for the playoffs.
All this to say that the divisional playoff game between the Titans and Ravens was expected to be a low-scoring affair. Tennessee beat Baltimore 13-10 in a regular-season meeting, and the Ravens only allowed nine points in their wild-card victory over the Dolphins. That the playoff game, which was won by Baltimore 13-10, was also low-scoring is convenient but ultimately irrelevant.
If the Titans attempted a two-point conversion once a penalty moved the ball to the 1-yard-line (and the odds don't increase in their favor that much, anyway), they would be taking an unnecessary amount of risk.
Making it, to go up 8-0, would be nice but wouldn't catch Baltimore off guard for more than the initial play. Missing it, however, would potentially be disastrous in such a low-scoring game. It would be entirely foolish to lead 6-0 only to lose 7-6, 10-9 or 14-13 -- three highly potential outcomes considering an expected dearth in scoring opportunities for both teams.
Unless a coach has made the decision to go for two-point conversions after every touchdown (which I think is a tenable position), it makes no sense to attempt two-point conversions until at least midway through the third quarter. By doing so earlier, you are providing your opponent extra information despite having a miniscule amount of information regarding the final score. In this case, the risk is exacerbated by the likelihood that the game would end up with a low final score.
For the most part, I agree with Gregg Easterbrook, who writes a weekly column at ESPN.com during the football season called "Tuesday Morning Quarterback." I do want to point out a portion from his most recent column, however, with which I vehemently disagree.
Sour Play of the Week: The atmosphere was electric at Long Playing Field, the crowd raucous as it expected to watch the AFC first seed notch the first victory of its Super Bowl run. The Titans staged a solid early drive and scored to take a 6-0 lead, just as Tennessee had scored first in 2001, when Baltimore came to Nashville and upset the favored home team in the divisional round. Tennessee lined up for the extra point, and Baltimore jumped offsides. Half the distance moved the ball to the 1, whence the PAT was kicked. But wait -- now the ball is on the 1-yard line, go for two! Tennessee rushed well on the day. There's only 1 yard to cover, go for two! Had Jeff Fisher gone for two and taken an 8-0 lead, it would have communicated the message that Tennessee would play all-out to win. Even a missed deuce try would have communicated this message. Instead the Titans played cautious, and that would become the theme of the team's loss -- see below.
I'm all for breaking trends because it's one way to gain a competitive advantage in football, and because I think the status quo is not always the correct strategy. Easterbrook makes these points often, and well. In this case, however, I think his analysis of the Titans' decision is shortsighted.
In the regular season, the Tennessee Titans (14.6 points per game) and Baltimore Ravens (15.2) finished second and third, respectively, for average defensive points allowed. Both teams were also among the lowest-scoring offenses -- Titans, 23.4; Ravens, 24.1 -- that qualified for the playoffs.
All this to say that the divisional playoff game between the Titans and Ravens was expected to be a low-scoring affair. Tennessee beat Baltimore 13-10 in a regular-season meeting, and the Ravens only allowed nine points in their wild-card victory over the Dolphins. That the playoff game, which was won by Baltimore 13-10, was also low-scoring is convenient but ultimately irrelevant.
If the Titans attempted a two-point conversion once a penalty moved the ball to the 1-yard-line (and the odds don't increase in their favor that much, anyway), they would be taking an unnecessary amount of risk.
Making it, to go up 8-0, would be nice but wouldn't catch Baltimore off guard for more than the initial play. Missing it, however, would potentially be disastrous in such a low-scoring game. It would be entirely foolish to lead 6-0 only to lose 7-6, 10-9 or 14-13 -- three highly potential outcomes considering an expected dearth in scoring opportunities for both teams.
Unless a coach has made the decision to go for two-point conversions after every touchdown (which I think is a tenable position), it makes no sense to attempt two-point conversions until at least midway through the third quarter. By doing so earlier, you are providing your opponent extra information despite having a miniscule amount of information regarding the final score. In this case, the risk is exacerbated by the likelihood that the game would end up with a low final score.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Divisional round, all at once
Update: Posted Donovan McNabb's career record in conference championship games.
We'll go with some quick hits for this Divisional Playoff weekend:
Baltimore 13, Tennessee 10
1. Ray Lewis's helmet-popping hit on Ahmard Hall was a good reminder why Lewis will eventually be in the Hall of Fame. Lewis didn't celebrate, perhaps because Hall still picked up an important first down in terms of field position, but his jarring shot was a poignant image for the leader of the Baltimore Ravens' defense.
Lewis is a two-time Defensive Player of the Year (2000, 2003), six-time first-team All-Pro (I trust journalists' opinions more than fans' and Pro Bowlers only represent their conference), and the 2000 Super Bowl MVP in a season when he carried the Ravens on his back (with help from Jamal Lewis).
2. One of my biggest pet peeves is quarterbacks who call timeouts at inopportune times, only to escape the ire of their misguided coaches.
Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco called a timeout to avoid a five-yard penalty for delay of game when facing a third-and-18 in the middle of the first quarter. I don't have exact numbers, but the difference in probability between converting a third-and-18 and a third-and-23 has to be negligible. Timeouts, however, are extremely valuable because they greatly increase the probability of scoring at the end of halftime. (Wow, that would be an extensive research project)
If I was a coach, I would tell my quarterback to always take the delay-of-game penalty unless it a critical juncture of the game (i.e. likely leading directly to points): Only on third or fourth down, or on the edge of field goal range or the end zone. Timeouts should be used liberally on defense, however, because one blown coverage can result in a touchdown.
You can call my complaint void because Flacco threw a 48-yard touchdown to Derrick Mason on the play following the timeout, but we should make our decisions based on probabilities, not post hoc information.
Cardinals 33, Panthers 13
1. If Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald breaks the 100-yard receiving mark in the NFC Championship game, he will join Tom Fears, Jerry Rice and Randy Moss as the only players to post three consecutive playoff games of 100 or more receiving yards.
Fitzgerald caught eight balls for 166 yards, including an impressive diving touchdown, against the Panthers. In his playoff debut against the Falcons, he caught six balls for 101 yards and a touchdown.
2. You can add Carolina's Jake Delhomme to my list of miserable quarterbacking performances in the playoffs. Sports Illustrated's Peter King suggests that considering the circumstances, Delhomme's six-turnover day may have been the worst.
Eagles 23, Giants 11
1. After missing only three field goals during his Pro-Bowl worthy regular season, New York kicker John Carney missed two against the Eagles in the wind tunnel known as Giants Stadium.
Carney did make three field goals on Sunday, but both of his misses could have swung the momentum of the game because they would have given the Giants the lead. His unfortunate timing following a 35-for-38 performance in the regular season (the best field goal percentage of his 21-year career) reminds me a lot of Gary Anderson's wayward kick in the 1998 playoffs.
Anderson had the first perfect regular season in NFL history, making all 35 field goal attempts and all 59 extra point attempts for the 15-1 Vikings, but missed a 38-yard field goal with two minutes remaining in the NFC Championship game against the Falcons. The Vikings failed to take a two-possession lead, and the Falcons ended up winning in overtime.
Speaking of Anderson, Eagles kicker David Akers broke his record on Sunday by converting his 17th and 18th consecutive field goal attempts in the postseason.
2. I wrote earlier about Donovan McNabb's success in the postseason. Now that he is prepared to start his fifth conference championship game (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008), where does that total rank in NFL history?
Joe Montana has seven appearances, going 4-3 and winning four Super Bowls.
Terry Bradshaw has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning four Super Bowls.
Roger Staubach has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning two Super Bowls.
John Elway has six appearances, going 5-1 and winning two Super Bowls.
Tom Brady has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning three Super Bowls.
Jim Kelly has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning zero Super Bowls.
Ken Stabler has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning one Super Bowl.
Donovan McNabb has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning zero Super Bowls.
Let me know if I missed any quarterback who started in at least five conference championship games. In case you were curious, Steve Young threw passes in six, but only started four and Brett Favre only played in four.
And, other than Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco, the other quarterbacks in the conference championship games do have some experience. It's the third career trip for both Arizona's Kurt Warner and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger.
Steelers 35, Chargers 24
1. Both the CBS announcers and I expected a quick kick from Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in the first quarter once he backed up several more yards out of a shotgun formation. Roethlisberger managed a 29-yard punt that was downed on the 9-yard line, but don't give Steelers coach Mike Tomlin all of the credit for the call.
I would be extremely surprised if Tomlin would have made the same decision if Patriots coach Bill Belichick hadn't pulled out the rarely-used play in New England's season finale. With New England leading 13-0 in the fourth quarter of a game where wind gusts reached 55 miles per hour, quarterback Matt Cassel pulled off a 55-yard quick kick that was downed at the 2-yard line.
What an excellent, and throwback, call.
As an aside, Randall Cunningham punted 20 times for an impressive 44.7 yard average while with the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings. Perhaps most impressively, the quarterback has the fourth-longest punt in NFL history with a 91-yard bomb against the Giants in 1988.
2. Yes, you read it right. San Diego only had possession of the ball for 17 seconds in the third quarter. After an eight-minute touchdown drive to start the second half, Pittsburgh intercepted Philip Rivers on the Chargers' first play from scrimmage. The Steelers' second drive stalled, but they recovered a muffed punt, and continued the ensuing drive into the fourth quarter.
There's really nothing else to say about that. It's ridiculous.
We'll go with some quick hits for this Divisional Playoff weekend:
Baltimore 13, Tennessee 10
1. Ray Lewis's helmet-popping hit on Ahmard Hall was a good reminder why Lewis will eventually be in the Hall of Fame. Lewis didn't celebrate, perhaps because Hall still picked up an important first down in terms of field position, but his jarring shot was a poignant image for the leader of the Baltimore Ravens' defense.
Lewis is a two-time Defensive Player of the Year (2000, 2003), six-time first-team All-Pro (I trust journalists' opinions more than fans' and Pro Bowlers only represent their conference), and the 2000 Super Bowl MVP in a season when he carried the Ravens on his back (with help from Jamal Lewis).
2. One of my biggest pet peeves is quarterbacks who call timeouts at inopportune times, only to escape the ire of their misguided coaches.
Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco called a timeout to avoid a five-yard penalty for delay of game when facing a third-and-18 in the middle of the first quarter. I don't have exact numbers, but the difference in probability between converting a third-and-18 and a third-and-23 has to be negligible. Timeouts, however, are extremely valuable because they greatly increase the probability of scoring at the end of halftime. (Wow, that would be an extensive research project)
If I was a coach, I would tell my quarterback to always take the delay-of-game penalty unless it a critical juncture of the game (i.e. likely leading directly to points): Only on third or fourth down, or on the edge of field goal range or the end zone. Timeouts should be used liberally on defense, however, because one blown coverage can result in a touchdown.
You can call my complaint void because Flacco threw a 48-yard touchdown to Derrick Mason on the play following the timeout, but we should make our decisions based on probabilities, not post hoc information.
Cardinals 33, Panthers 13
1. If Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald breaks the 100-yard receiving mark in the NFC Championship game, he will join Tom Fears, Jerry Rice and Randy Moss as the only players to post three consecutive playoff games of 100 or more receiving yards.
Fitzgerald caught eight balls for 166 yards, including an impressive diving touchdown, against the Panthers. In his playoff debut against the Falcons, he caught six balls for 101 yards and a touchdown.
2. You can add Carolina's Jake Delhomme to my list of miserable quarterbacking performances in the playoffs. Sports Illustrated's Peter King suggests that considering the circumstances, Delhomme's six-turnover day may have been the worst.
Goat of the Week
Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina. Has any quarterback had a worse playoff game than Delhomme's five-interception, one-lost-fumble disaster Saturday night against Arizona? Unlikely. Brett Favre, in the 2001 playoffs, threw six picks against the Rams, but in that game, Favre was just throwing balls up throughout the second half trying to hit the lottery. Delhomme went 17 of 34 for 205 yards, with one garbage-time touchdown and the five picks, and only one of the turnovers came with the game legitimately out of hand. Here's the amazing thing: You watch all five of those interceptions, and you'll see that every one was thrown into something like double-coverage. "To put into words, I can't," Delhomme said. "I am at a loss for words. I had a hand in six turnovers ... I should get the blame. It's inexcusable."
Eagles 23, Giants 11
1. After missing only three field goals during his Pro-Bowl worthy regular season, New York kicker John Carney missed two against the Eagles in the wind tunnel known as Giants Stadium.
Carney did make three field goals on Sunday, but both of his misses could have swung the momentum of the game because they would have given the Giants the lead. His unfortunate timing following a 35-for-38 performance in the regular season (the best field goal percentage of his 21-year career) reminds me a lot of Gary Anderson's wayward kick in the 1998 playoffs.
Anderson had the first perfect regular season in NFL history, making all 35 field goal attempts and all 59 extra point attempts for the 15-1 Vikings, but missed a 38-yard field goal with two minutes remaining in the NFC Championship game against the Falcons. The Vikings failed to take a two-possession lead, and the Falcons ended up winning in overtime.
Speaking of Anderson, Eagles kicker David Akers broke his record on Sunday by converting his 17th and 18th consecutive field goal attempts in the postseason.
2. I wrote earlier about Donovan McNabb's success in the postseason. Now that he is prepared to start his fifth conference championship game (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008), where does that total rank in NFL history?
Joe Montana has seven appearances, going 4-3 and winning four Super Bowls.
Terry Bradshaw has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning four Super Bowls.
Roger Staubach has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning two Super Bowls.
John Elway has six appearances, going 5-1 and winning two Super Bowls.
Tom Brady has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning three Super Bowls.
Jim Kelly has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning zero Super Bowls.
Ken Stabler has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning one Super Bowl.
Donovan McNabb has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning zero Super Bowls.
Let me know if I missed any quarterback who started in at least five conference championship games. In case you were curious, Steve Young threw passes in six, but only started four and Brett Favre only played in four.
And, other than Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco, the other quarterbacks in the conference championship games do have some experience. It's the third career trip for both Arizona's Kurt Warner and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger.
Steelers 35, Chargers 24
1. Both the CBS announcers and I expected a quick kick from Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in the first quarter once he backed up several more yards out of a shotgun formation. Roethlisberger managed a 29-yard punt that was downed on the 9-yard line, but don't give Steelers coach Mike Tomlin all of the credit for the call.
I would be extremely surprised if Tomlin would have made the same decision if Patriots coach Bill Belichick hadn't pulled out the rarely-used play in New England's season finale. With New England leading 13-0 in the fourth quarter of a game where wind gusts reached 55 miles per hour, quarterback Matt Cassel pulled off a 55-yard quick kick that was downed at the 2-yard line.
What an excellent, and throwback, call.
As an aside, Randall Cunningham punted 20 times for an impressive 44.7 yard average while with the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings. Perhaps most impressively, the quarterback has the fourth-longest punt in NFL history with a 91-yard bomb against the Giants in 1988.
2. Yes, you read it right. San Diego only had possession of the ball for 17 seconds in the third quarter. After an eight-minute touchdown drive to start the second half, Pittsburgh intercepted Philip Rivers on the Chargers' first play from scrimmage. The Steelers' second drive stalled, but they recovered a muffed punt, and continued the ensuing drive into the fourth quarter.
There's really nothing else to say about that. It's ridiculous.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Odds and ends
A few brief observations.
1. It takes a lot longer to do statistical research than expected, so for my sanity's sake I will not attempt to do the same amount of work behind the scenes every day. That will also help in two other ways -- I will more easily be able to post something every day, and I will be able to do more substantive research without stringent deadlines. I'm also busy finding some more interesting blogs to read, that I will continue to add to the links along the right-side.
2. I am obviously an NFL geek considering that I took home the Miami Dolphins 2008 Postseason Guide that we received at work today after my bosses threw it in the recycling bin. I like the opportunity to read through the weekly game summaries and the guide also contains a lot of good statistical information that I can use in my research. Although the Internet is an undeniably great resource, it is sometimes easier to flip back and forth between pages instead of pressing Control-Tab repeatedly. Also, the book is currently selling on eBay for $17.50!
3. As for actual football news, I have none. Just enjoy the divisional playoff games this weekend, which is my second-favorite football weekend of the year after Kickoff Weekend. Eight of the best teams in the NFL play four consecutive single-elimination games. The Super Bowl is historically significant, but there is no less anticipation in the season than at the final game.
1. It takes a lot longer to do statistical research than expected, so for my sanity's sake I will not attempt to do the same amount of work behind the scenes every day. That will also help in two other ways -- I will more easily be able to post something every day, and I will be able to do more substantive research without stringent deadlines. I'm also busy finding some more interesting blogs to read, that I will continue to add to the links along the right-side.
2. I am obviously an NFL geek considering that I took home the Miami Dolphins 2008 Postseason Guide that we received at work today after my bosses threw it in the recycling bin. I like the opportunity to read through the weekly game summaries and the guide also contains a lot of good statistical information that I can use in my research. Although the Internet is an undeniably great resource, it is sometimes easier to flip back and forth between pages instead of pressing Control-Tab repeatedly. Also, the book is currently selling on eBay for $17.50!
3. As for actual football news, I have none. Just enjoy the divisional playoff games this weekend, which is my second-favorite football weekend of the year after Kickoff Weekend. Eight of the best teams in the NFL play four consecutive single-elimination games. The Super Bowl is historically significant, but there is no less anticipation in the season than at the final game.
Friday, January 9, 2009
Division among the wild-cards?
Despite having worse records than their opponents, both the San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals won wild-card games last weekend. The Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings each lost wild-card games despite having equal or better records than their opponents.
The common thread? All four teams did have home-field advantage. But according to historical numbers, that doesn't make a significant difference -- their status as a division winner does.
Division winners are 34-18 in wild-card games while home teams in wild-card games that have not involved division winners are only 23-15.
The second figure also carries an interesting caveat because home teams went 11-5 from 1978 to 1989** but only 12-10 from 1990 to 2001. The distinction is odd because in both cases, the wild-card games were held between the fourth and fifth seeds in the conference, although the introduction of free agency in 1993 could be one possible explanation for the sudden parity.
A brief historical review will help unpack the success of division winners in the wild-card round. The wild-card was introduced in 1978, but all three division winners received a bye week during wild-card weekend until 1990, when the postseason field was expanded from 10 to 12 teams.
From 1990 to 2001, four wild-card games were played but only two involved a division winner, because the conferences were aligned into three divisions. Division winners went 19-7 during those 13 seasons. In 2002, the NFL realigned both conferences into four divisions, resulting in two division winners playing in wild-card games. In the seven years since realignment, division winners are 17-11.
Perhaps, however, it's not surprising to see division winners fare well in the wild-card round. Quite simply, their regular season record is typically better than their opponent's.
When division winners have faced a wild-card team with a better regular season record, they are 4-3. When both teams have the same record, division winners are 7-3, and when division winners face a wild-card team with a worse record, they are 23-12.
**I did not include the 1982 strike season because an unusual playoff structure was utilized.
The common thread? All four teams did have home-field advantage. But according to historical numbers, that doesn't make a significant difference -- their status as a division winner does.
Division winners are 34-18 in wild-card games while home teams in wild-card games that have not involved division winners are only 23-15.
The second figure also carries an interesting caveat because home teams went 11-5 from 1978 to 1989** but only 12-10 from 1990 to 2001. The distinction is odd because in both cases, the wild-card games were held between the fourth and fifth seeds in the conference, although the introduction of free agency in 1993 could be one possible explanation for the sudden parity.
A brief historical review will help unpack the success of division winners in the wild-card round. The wild-card was introduced in 1978, but all three division winners received a bye week during wild-card weekend until 1990, when the postseason field was expanded from 10 to 12 teams.
From 1990 to 2001, four wild-card games were played but only two involved a division winner, because the conferences were aligned into three divisions. Division winners went 19-7 during those 13 seasons. In 2002, the NFL realigned both conferences into four divisions, resulting in two division winners playing in wild-card games. In the seven years since realignment, division winners are 17-11.
Perhaps, however, it's not surprising to see division winners fare well in the wild-card round. Quite simply, their regular season record is typically better than their opponent's.
When division winners have faced a wild-card team with a better regular season record, they are 4-3. When both teams have the same record, division winners are 7-3, and when division winners face a wild-card team with a worse record, they are 23-12.
**I did not include the 1982 strike season because an unusual playoff structure was utilized.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Best of final Hall of Fame nominees
Update: Bruce Smith, Rod Woodson, Randall McDaniel, Ralph Wilson, Derrick Thomas and Bob Hayes were elected to the Hall of Fame.
Update: Sports Illustrated's Peter King offered his odds of each Hall of Fame candidate being inducted. The five players he gives the best odds are Bruce Smith, Rod Woodson, Bob Hayes, Cris Carter and Shannon Sharpe.
Of the thousands of NFL players who retired before 2004, only 15 remain eligible for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2009. The Board of Selectors whittles nominations down over the course of a year -- this class began with 133 -- and will end up electing between four and seven of the candidates, announcing them the week before the Super Bowl.
Thirteen of this year's candidates are modern-day players and two were selected by the Senior Committee, which looks at players retired for at least 25 years. Two contributors, who do not have to be retired, are also up for election.
My view of the Hall of Fame is that it should be a historical representation of football, covering positions and eras in a reasonably equitable manner. If you don't watch a player's career with the thought, "He is a Hall of Famer" in the back of your mind, then he probably isn't -- except for the rare few who changed the game in subtler ways. The five modern-day players (the maximum allowed) and the one senior nominee I would select are:
Modern-day candidates
- Bruce Smith (DE; Bills, Redskins; 1985-2003): One of the most feared defensive ends in league history, Smith holds the NFL's career record with 200 sacks and will be regarded alongside Deacon Jones and Reggie White as the greatest to ever play the position.
- Rod Woodson (CB, S; Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, Raiders; 1987-2003): Was able to play three positions -- cornerback, safety and kick returner -- at the highest level and has the third-most interceptions in NFL history (71), returning an NFL-record 12 for touchdowns.
- Paul Tagliabue (Commissioner; 1989-2005): Former leader avoided work-related stoppages while presiding over the introduction of free agency and the salary cap, in addition to increasing revenue through the development of valuable television contracts and new stadiums.
- Randall McDaniel (OL; Vikings, Buccaneers; 1988-2001): Although primarily a guard, McDaniel displayed tremendous versatility by playing every position on the offensive line, and was recognized for his contributions by being named to 12 consecutive Pro Bowls.
- Cris Carter (WR; Eagles, Vikings, Dolphins; 1987-2002): Known for making impressive sideline and fingertip grabs, along with catching touchdowns almost at will, Carter finished his career second only to Jerry Rice in career receptions (1,101) and receiving touchdowns (130).
Senior class candidates
-Bob Hayes (WR; Cowboys, 49ers; 1965-1975): World-class sprinter fundamentally changed the way defense is played by stretching the field with his raw speed. The Olympic gold-medalist forced the creation of zone coverages before quickly proceeding to destroy them.
The rest of the modern-day nominees, in alphabetical order, are Dermontti Dawson (C; Steelers; 1998-2000); Richard Dent (DE; Bears, 49ers, Colts, Eagles; 1983-1997); Russ Grimm (G; Redskins; 1981-1991); Cortez Kennedy (DT; Seahawks; 1990-2000); Bob Kuechenberg (OL; Dolphins; 1970-1983); John Randle (DT; Vikings, Seahawks; 1990-2003); Andre Reed (WR; Bills, Redskins; 1985-2000); Shannon Sharpe (TE; Broncos, Ravens; 1990-2003); Derrick Thomas (LB; Chiefs; 1989-1999); Ralph Wilson (Owner; Bills; 1959-Present). The other senior class nominee is Claude Humphrey (DE; Falcons, Eagles; 1968-1981).
Update: Sports Illustrated's Peter King offered his odds of each Hall of Fame candidate being inducted. The five players he gives the best odds are Bruce Smith, Rod Woodson, Bob Hayes, Cris Carter and Shannon Sharpe.
Of the thousands of NFL players who retired before 2004, only 15 remain eligible for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2009. The Board of Selectors whittles nominations down over the course of a year -- this class began with 133 -- and will end up electing between four and seven of the candidates, announcing them the week before the Super Bowl.
Thirteen of this year's candidates are modern-day players and two were selected by the Senior Committee, which looks at players retired for at least 25 years. Two contributors, who do not have to be retired, are also up for election.
My view of the Hall of Fame is that it should be a historical representation of football, covering positions and eras in a reasonably equitable manner. If you don't watch a player's career with the thought, "He is a Hall of Famer" in the back of your mind, then he probably isn't -- except for the rare few who changed the game in subtler ways. The five modern-day players (the maximum allowed) and the one senior nominee I would select are:
Modern-day candidates
- Bruce Smith (DE; Bills, Redskins; 1985-2003): One of the most feared defensive ends in league history, Smith holds the NFL's career record with 200 sacks and will be regarded alongside Deacon Jones and Reggie White as the greatest to ever play the position.
- Rod Woodson (CB, S; Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, Raiders; 1987-2003): Was able to play three positions -- cornerback, safety and kick returner -- at the highest level and has the third-most interceptions in NFL history (71), returning an NFL-record 12 for touchdowns.
- Paul Tagliabue (Commissioner; 1989-2005): Former leader avoided work-related stoppages while presiding over the introduction of free agency and the salary cap, in addition to increasing revenue through the development of valuable television contracts and new stadiums.
- Randall McDaniel (OL; Vikings, Buccaneers; 1988-2001): Although primarily a guard, McDaniel displayed tremendous versatility by playing every position on the offensive line, and was recognized for his contributions by being named to 12 consecutive Pro Bowls.
- Cris Carter (WR; Eagles, Vikings, Dolphins; 1987-2002): Known for making impressive sideline and fingertip grabs, along with catching touchdowns almost at will, Carter finished his career second only to Jerry Rice in career receptions (1,101) and receiving touchdowns (130).
Senior class candidates
-Bob Hayes (WR; Cowboys, 49ers; 1965-1975): World-class sprinter fundamentally changed the way defense is played by stretching the field with his raw speed. The Olympic gold-medalist forced the creation of zone coverages before quickly proceeding to destroy them.
The rest of the modern-day nominees, in alphabetical order, are Dermontti Dawson (C; Steelers; 1998-2000); Richard Dent (DE; Bears, 49ers, Colts, Eagles; 1983-1997); Russ Grimm (G; Redskins; 1981-1991); Cortez Kennedy (DT; Seahawks; 1990-2000); Bob Kuechenberg (OL; Dolphins; 1970-1983); John Randle (DT; Vikings, Seahawks; 1990-2003); Andre Reed (WR; Bills, Redskins; 1985-2000); Shannon Sharpe (TE; Broncos, Ravens; 1990-2003); Derrick Thomas (LB; Chiefs; 1989-1999); Ralph Wilson (Owner; Bills; 1959-Present). The other senior class nominee is Claude Humphrey (DE; Falcons, Eagles; 1968-1981).
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Manning's MVP misery
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, who lost his first playoff game after being named the Associated Press MVP, isn't alone. Eleven of the 54 MVPs went 0-1 in the playoffs. Fourteen have won NFL championships, but none since Kurt Warner did with the St. Louis Rams in 1999.
MVPs, however, have quite an impressive postseason record overall.
If MVPs were their own franchise, they would have the third-best postseason winning percentage in league history. The second-best Packers have a .625 winning percentage (25-15) while the MVPs hold a .651 winning percentage (71-38). Carolina holds the top spot with a 6-3 record (.666), but the 1998 expansion team has a small sample size and will slip if they lose to the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday night.
Nota bene:
- Two MVPs did not reach the postseason. Johnny Unitas led the Baltimore Colts to an 11-1-2 regular season record in 1964 but did not receive an automatic bid to the playoffs because of an 0-1-1 head-to-head record against the Los Angeles Rams, who also finished 11-1-2. O.J. Simpson and the Buffalo Bills finished 9-5 in 1973, losing the AFC East crown to the 12-2 Miami Dolphins and the lone wild-card spot to the 10-4 Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Twenty-two MVPs have made it the Super Bowl in the postseason following their award, but more have lost (12) than won (10). Eight have lost in the conference championship, 10 have lost in divisional round, and three have lost in the wild-card round.
- MVP quarterbacks (.662 winning percentage, 49-25 record, eight NFL titles) fare slightly better than MVP running backs (.555, 15-12, 4 titles). Defensive and special team MVPs -- there has been a defensive tackle, kicker and linebacker selected -- have had the highest rate of success. (.875, 7-1, 2 titles).
MVPs, however, have quite an impressive postseason record overall.
If MVPs were their own franchise, they would have the third-best postseason winning percentage in league history. The second-best Packers have a .625 winning percentage (25-15) while the MVPs hold a .651 winning percentage (71-38). Carolina holds the top spot with a 6-3 record (.666), but the 1998 expansion team has a small sample size and will slip if they lose to the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday night.
Nota bene:
- Two MVPs did not reach the postseason. Johnny Unitas led the Baltimore Colts to an 11-1-2 regular season record in 1964 but did not receive an automatic bid to the playoffs because of an 0-1-1 head-to-head record against the Los Angeles Rams, who also finished 11-1-2. O.J. Simpson and the Buffalo Bills finished 9-5 in 1973, losing the AFC East crown to the 12-2 Miami Dolphins and the lone wild-card spot to the 10-4 Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Twenty-two MVPs have made it the Super Bowl in the postseason following their award, but more have lost (12) than won (10). Eight have lost in the conference championship, 10 have lost in divisional round, and three have lost in the wild-card round.
- MVP quarterbacks (.662 winning percentage, 49-25 record, eight NFL titles) fare slightly better than MVP running backs (.555, 15-12, 4 titles). Defensive and special team MVPs -- there has been a defensive tackle, kicker and linebacker selected -- have had the highest rate of success. (.875, 7-1, 2 titles).
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
History suggests Herm Edwards will be fired
Update: Herm Edwards was fired today, Jan. 23. Between my post and this update, Upon Further Review examined the records of coaches who lead teams coming off bad seasons.
Upon Further Review, a blog about Kansas City sports, has some insightful statistical analysis that causes writer Martin Manley to believe Chiefs coach Herm Edwards will certainly be fired, and that the franchise is simply waiting to hire a new general manager first.
Manley provides three comparisons to show why Edwards is a goner -- he has the worst record of active coaches with 80+ games, most non-expansion coaches with records of 2-14 or worse are fired, and so do coaches with miserable records after three seasons with a team.
My thoughts? Modern society contains so many entertainment options that owners of sports teams feel the need to ensure their product is profitable. When you're not winning, the best way to accomplish that is by promising change. Although a coach might ultimately end up being successful in a later job (future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick, who went 36-44 in Cleveland, comes to mind), it's often not a risk worth taking.
Nota bene:
If I get really ambitious, I might have to take up Manley on his implicit challenge:
Upon Further Review, a blog about Kansas City sports, has some insightful statistical analysis that causes writer Martin Manley to believe Chiefs coach Herm Edwards will certainly be fired, and that the franchise is simply waiting to hire a new general manager first.
Manley provides three comparisons to show why Edwards is a goner -- he has the worst record of active coaches with 80+ games, most non-expansion coaches with records of 2-14 or worse are fired, and so do coaches with miserable records after three seasons with a team.
My thoughts? Modern society contains so many entertainment options that owners of sports teams feel the need to ensure their product is profitable. When you're not winning, the best way to accomplish that is by promising change. Although a coach might ultimately end up being successful in a later job (future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick, who went 36-44 in Cleveland, comes to mind), it's often not a risk worth taking.
Nota bene:
If I get really ambitious, I might have to take up Manley on his implicit challenge:
I don’t have any way to measure this apart from about 1,000 hours of work, however... If I had produced this list every year, I would think the odds would be pretty darn good that the lowest active career winning percentage coach on the list would be gone most of the time
Turner put on back burner
Michael Turner's performance -- or lack thereof -- in Saturday's NFC wild-card game between the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals was quite surprising on the surface.
Turner, who rushed for 1,699 yards and a franchise-record 17 touchdowns in the regular season, finished with only 42 rushing yards on 18 carries in the Falcons' 30-24 loss. He did score a 7-yard rushing touchdown in the second quarter, but his yardage tied a season-worst total.
When compared to the other top 45 rushing seasons in NFL history -- quantified as a 1,600-yard season for the sake of argument -- Turner's struggles particularly stand out. Only five of those 45 running backs compiled fewer yards in their postseason opener.
Be wary, however, of assigning too much blame to Turner for the Falcons' loss.
The heralded statistic that Atlanta went 8-0 in the regular season when Turner ran for 100-plus yards is a common, but misleading, figure. The circular reasoning only shows that teams are likely to win when they are leading in the fourth quarter -- as a result, they run the ball to drain the clock -- and are likely to lose when they are trailing in the fourth quarter -- in an attempt to catch up quickly, they pass the ball.
Case in point: Turner carried the ball seven times in the first quarter, eight times in the second, three times in the third, and none in the fourth. Although the Falcons led 17-14 at halftime, a fumbled exchange between quarterback Matt Ryan and Turner on the second play of the second half resulted in a defensive touchdown for Arizona, who never trailed again.
Nota bene:
- Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, who picked up 1,760 rushing yards in the regular season, rushed for 83 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in Sunday's 26-14 loss to Philadelphia. He only carried the ball two times in the fourth quarter, which the Vikings entered trailing 16-14.
- The best playoff-opening performance following a season of 1,600-plus rushing yards? Terrell Davis picked up 199 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in Denver's 38-3 win over Miami after rushing for 2,008 yards in 1998. The worst? Barry Sanders finished with negative 1 yard on 13 carries in Detroit's 16-12 loss to Green Bay Packers after rushing for 1,883 yards in 1994.
- Fourteen of the 46 highest rushing seasons in league history did not even result in playoff berths. Of the remaining 32 players, 18 won their respective playoff openers. In those games, running backs who finished with 100-plus yards only went 6-7, and players who finished with sub-50 yardage totals finished 2-6.
Turner, who rushed for 1,699 yards and a franchise-record 17 touchdowns in the regular season, finished with only 42 rushing yards on 18 carries in the Falcons' 30-24 loss. He did score a 7-yard rushing touchdown in the second quarter, but his yardage tied a season-worst total.
When compared to the other top 45 rushing seasons in NFL history -- quantified as a 1,600-yard season for the sake of argument -- Turner's struggles particularly stand out. Only five of those 45 running backs compiled fewer yards in their postseason opener.
Be wary, however, of assigning too much blame to Turner for the Falcons' loss.
The heralded statistic that Atlanta went 8-0 in the regular season when Turner ran for 100-plus yards is a common, but misleading, figure. The circular reasoning only shows that teams are likely to win when they are leading in the fourth quarter -- as a result, they run the ball to drain the clock -- and are likely to lose when they are trailing in the fourth quarter -- in an attempt to catch up quickly, they pass the ball.
Case in point: Turner carried the ball seven times in the first quarter, eight times in the second, three times in the third, and none in the fourth. Although the Falcons led 17-14 at halftime, a fumbled exchange between quarterback Matt Ryan and Turner on the second play of the second half resulted in a defensive touchdown for Arizona, who never trailed again.
Nota bene:
- Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, who picked up 1,760 rushing yards in the regular season, rushed for 83 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in Sunday's 26-14 loss to Philadelphia. He only carried the ball two times in the fourth quarter, which the Vikings entered trailing 16-14.
- The best playoff-opening performance following a season of 1,600-plus rushing yards? Terrell Davis picked up 199 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in Denver's 38-3 win over Miami after rushing for 2,008 yards in 1998. The worst? Barry Sanders finished with negative 1 yard on 13 carries in Detroit's 16-12 loss to Green Bay Packers after rushing for 1,883 yards in 1994.
- Fourteen of the 46 highest rushing seasons in league history did not even result in playoff berths. Of the remaining 32 players, 18 won their respective playoff openers. In those games, running backs who finished with 100-plus yards only went 6-7, and players who finished with sub-50 yardage totals finished 2-6.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Wild-card, round two
As I continue to refine my blog, please let me know if you have any questions or suggestions. And, yes, I have been biased to examining quarterbacks in my post-game analysis because they provide a smaller sample size and arguably more interesting discussion.
Baltimore 27, Miami 9
Quick thought: Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington threw four interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown by Ed Reed, after tossing only seven in the regular season -- and never more than one in a game.
But, it could have been worse -- much, much worse. Four quarterbacks have thrown six interceptions in one playoff game, with three of those performances coming in NFL title games.
- Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre in a 45-17 loss to the St. Louis Rams in 2002 (three returned for TDs)
- Los Angeles Rams quarterback Norm Van Brocklin in a 38-14 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1955 title game (one returned for a TD)
- Detroit Lions quarterback Bobby Layne in a 56-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1954 title game
- New York Giants quarterback Frank Filchock in a 24-14 loss to the Chicago Bears in the 1946 title game
The most notable five-interception performance in playoff history was by Oakland Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon in Super Bowl XXXVII, including three that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers returned for touchdowns in Oakland's 48-21 loss.
Quick tease: Baltimore Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Flacco picked up his first postseason win despite throwing for only 135 yards. The Ravens' championship season in 2000 also contained some sparse offensive numbers, but what actually are the lowest passing yardages for a winning quarterback in a postseason game?
Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 14
Quick thought: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb, who made it to four consecutive NFC Championship games earlier this decade, now has eight playoff victories without a Super Bowl title.
McNabb (8-5 postseason record) joins Hall of Fame quarterbacks Jim Kelly (9-8) and quarterback Dan Marino (8-10) atop this unique -- and tragic -- list. With two more seasons averaging about 3,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, McNabb will have comparable career statistics to Kelly.
But does McNabb have a good chance to be voted into the Hall of Fame?
He's already in some pretty good company for career postseason wins: Joe Montana (16-7), Tom Brady (14-3), Terry Bradshaw (14-5), John Elway (14-7), Brett Favre (12-10), Roger Staubach (11-6), Troy Aikman (11-4) Bart Starr (9-1), Kelly, Jim Plunkett (8-2), Steve Young (8-6) and Marino.
For those keeping score, McNabb currently trails 10 current Hall of Famers and two shoo-ins, Brady and Favre, and can continue extending his win total this season.
Quick tease: The San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals answered a lengthy discussion about whether division champions should receive a home playoff game despite their record by winning on Saturday night. The Vikings couldn't make it three in a row, however, prompting the question of how division champions have historically performed in the first round.
Baltimore 27, Miami 9
Quick thought: Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington threw four interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown by Ed Reed, after tossing only seven in the regular season -- and never more than one in a game.
But, it could have been worse -- much, much worse. Four quarterbacks have thrown six interceptions in one playoff game, with three of those performances coming in NFL title games.
- Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre in a 45-17 loss to the St. Louis Rams in 2002 (three returned for TDs)
- Los Angeles Rams quarterback Norm Van Brocklin in a 38-14 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1955 title game (one returned for a TD)
- Detroit Lions quarterback Bobby Layne in a 56-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1954 title game
- New York Giants quarterback Frank Filchock in a 24-14 loss to the Chicago Bears in the 1946 title game
The most notable five-interception performance in playoff history was by Oakland Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon in Super Bowl XXXVII, including three that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers returned for touchdowns in Oakland's 48-21 loss.
Quick tease: Baltimore Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Flacco picked up his first postseason win despite throwing for only 135 yards. The Ravens' championship season in 2000 also contained some sparse offensive numbers, but what actually are the lowest passing yardages for a winning quarterback in a postseason game?
Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 14
Quick thought: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb, who made it to four consecutive NFC Championship games earlier this decade, now has eight playoff victories without a Super Bowl title.
McNabb (8-5 postseason record) joins Hall of Fame quarterbacks Jim Kelly (9-8) and quarterback Dan Marino (8-10) atop this unique -- and tragic -- list. With two more seasons averaging about 3,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, McNabb will have comparable career statistics to Kelly.
But does McNabb have a good chance to be voted into the Hall of Fame?
He's already in some pretty good company for career postseason wins: Joe Montana (16-7), Tom Brady (14-3), Terry Bradshaw (14-5), John Elway (14-7), Brett Favre (12-10), Roger Staubach (11-6), Troy Aikman (11-4) Bart Starr (9-1), Kelly, Jim Plunkett (8-2), Steve Young (8-6) and Marino.
For those keeping score, McNabb currently trails 10 current Hall of Famers and two shoo-ins, Brady and Favre, and can continue extending his win total this season.
Quick tease: The San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals answered a lengthy discussion about whether division champions should receive a home playoff game despite their record by winning on Saturday night. The Vikings couldn't make it three in a row, however, prompting the question of how division champions have historically performed in the first round.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Wild-card, round one
Update: Added kickoff return yardage to Ed Podolak's all-purpose total and complete breakdown for Keith Lincoln's total.
Because I am admittedly making this up as I go along, my plans for postgame analysis are to produce one quick thought -- an interesting fact I can verify quickly -- and one quick tease -- a trend or occurrence that I will blog on thoroughly later in the week after spending more time in research.
Arizona 30, Atlanta 24
Quick thought: Is nine years the longest delay of game in history? It might be for Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who joins Joe Montana as the only Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks to win a playoff game with a different franchise, a feat both accomplished at age 37.
Warner directed the Greatest Show on Turf in his first season a starter, winning the Super Bowl with the St. Louis Rams in 1999 -- almost one decade before this season's career renaissance. Montana won three Super Bowl MVPs (1981, 1984, 1989) with the San Francisco 49ers before taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the AFC Championship game in 1993.
Perhaps tellingly, 10 of the 15 other quarterbacks eligible for such an accomplishment played their entire careers with one team, although that may eventually change for Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning.
Quick tease: Atlanta running back Michael Turner rushed for 1,699 yards this season -- the 28th-highest total in NFL history -- but was held to 42 yards on 18 carries. The lack of postseason production is stark when compared to the results of the other top-50 regular seasons.
San Diego 23, Indianapolis 16 (OT)
Quick thought: If you thought San Diego running back Darren Sproles was all over the field, you were right. In addition to providing the game-winning 22-yard touchdown run in overtime, Sproles' 326 all-purpose yards (105 rushing, 45 receiving, 106 kickoff return, 72 punt return) is the third-highest total in playoff history.
No. 1? Kansas City running back Ed Podolak picked up 350 yards in a 27-24 double overtime loss to Miami in the 1971 AFC Championship. He rushed for 85 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries, recorded 110 yards and one touchdown on eight receptions, and added 155 yards on three kickoff returns.
No. 2? San Diego fullback Keith Lincoln compiled 329 yards in the 1963 AFL Championship, a 52-10 slaughter of the Boston Patriots. He rushed for 206 yards and one touchdown, adding 123 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Quick tease: Peyton Manning is now 3-3 in the playoffs following his MVP seasons (2003, 2004, 2008), making it to only one AFC Championship game. Is that typical postseason production for MVPs, or is it common for Super Bowls to accompany such recognition?
Because I am admittedly making this up as I go along, my plans for postgame analysis are to produce one quick thought -- an interesting fact I can verify quickly -- and one quick tease -- a trend or occurrence that I will blog on thoroughly later in the week after spending more time in research.
Arizona 30, Atlanta 24
Quick thought: Is nine years the longest delay of game in history? It might be for Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who joins Joe Montana as the only Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks to win a playoff game with a different franchise, a feat both accomplished at age 37.
Warner directed the Greatest Show on Turf in his first season a starter, winning the Super Bowl with the St. Louis Rams in 1999 -- almost one decade before this season's career renaissance. Montana won three Super Bowl MVPs (1981, 1984, 1989) with the San Francisco 49ers before taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the AFC Championship game in 1993.
Perhaps tellingly, 10 of the 15 other quarterbacks eligible for such an accomplishment played their entire careers with one team, although that may eventually change for Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning.
Quick tease: Atlanta running back Michael Turner rushed for 1,699 yards this season -- the 28th-highest total in NFL history -- but was held to 42 yards on 18 carries. The lack of postseason production is stark when compared to the results of the other top-50 regular seasons.
San Diego 23, Indianapolis 16 (OT)
Quick thought: If you thought San Diego running back Darren Sproles was all over the field, you were right. In addition to providing the game-winning 22-yard touchdown run in overtime, Sproles' 326 all-purpose yards (105 rushing, 45 receiving, 106 kickoff return, 72 punt return) is the third-highest total in playoff history.
No. 1? Kansas City running back Ed Podolak picked up 350 yards in a 27-24 double overtime loss to Miami in the 1971 AFC Championship. He rushed for 85 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries, recorded 110 yards and one touchdown on eight receptions, and added 155 yards on three kickoff returns.
No. 2? San Diego fullback Keith Lincoln compiled 329 yards in the 1963 AFL Championship, a 52-10 slaughter of the Boston Patriots. He rushed for 206 yards and one touchdown, adding 123 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Quick tease: Peyton Manning is now 3-3 in the playoffs following his MVP seasons (2003, 2004, 2008), making it to only one AFC Championship game. Is that typical postseason production for MVPs, or is it common for Super Bowls to accompany such recognition?
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Playoff predictions to laugh at later
Update: I am adding the actual playoff results in italics next to my predictions.
For what it's worth, here are my playoff predictions for this year. I think the Carolina Panthers will beat the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl.
After watching Carolina beat San Diego in the first week of the regular season, I had a hunch that they would go to the Super Bowl, and they haven't done anything to change my mind. They remind me a lot of the 2007 New York Giants, with a team that has several talented running backs, a strong defense and a talented quarterback that can deliver a victory when needed. I think Baltimore is the only defense that can get into Peyton Manning's head, and in the AFC, that's enough to propel them.
AFC Wild-Card
Baltimore over Miami | Baltimore 27, Miami 9
Indianapolis over San Diego | San Diego 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT)
AFC Divisional
Baltimore over Tennessee | Baltimore 13, Tennessee 10
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh 35, San Diego 24
AFC Championship
Baltimore over Indianapolis | Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 14
NFC Wild-Card
Minnesota over Philadelphia | Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 14
Atlanta over Arizona | Arizona 30, Atlanta 24
NFC Divisional
Carolina over Minnesota | Arizona 33, Carolina 13
New York over Atlanta | Philadelphia 23, New York 11
NFC Championship
Carolina over New York | Arizona 32, Philadelphia 25
Super Bowl
Carolina over Baltimore | Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23
For what it's worth, here are my playoff predictions for this year. I think the Carolina Panthers will beat the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl.
After watching Carolina beat San Diego in the first week of the regular season, I had a hunch that they would go to the Super Bowl, and they haven't done anything to change my mind. They remind me a lot of the 2007 New York Giants, with a team that has several talented running backs, a strong defense and a talented quarterback that can deliver a victory when needed. I think Baltimore is the only defense that can get into Peyton Manning's head, and in the AFC, that's enough to propel them.
AFC Wild-Card
Baltimore over Miami | Baltimore 27, Miami 9
Indianapolis over San Diego | San Diego 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT)
AFC Divisional
Baltimore over Tennessee | Baltimore 13, Tennessee 10
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh 35, San Diego 24
AFC Championship
Baltimore over Indianapolis | Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 14
NFC Wild-Card
Minnesota over Philadelphia | Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 14
Atlanta over Arizona | Arizona 30, Atlanta 24
NFC Divisional
Carolina over Minnesota | Arizona 33, Carolina 13
New York over Atlanta | Philadelphia 23, New York 11
NFC Championship
Carolina over New York | Arizona 32, Philadelphia 25
Super Bowl
Carolina over Baltimore | Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23
Friday, January 2, 2009
Manning's unknown MVP record?
Correction: Peyton Manning has played 11 NFL seasons, not 10 as previously stated.
Note: My research is only complete through 1985, but I am extremely confident no player before then qualifies because careers were much shorter. Please let me know if my data is inaccurate.
Peyton Manning was named the 2008 NFL MVP today, and now the debate can really begin. Historically, will Manning or Brett Favre be remembered as the better quarterback?
Both have one Super Bowl ring and both have won three NFL MVPs, the only players to achieve such a feat. The future Hall of Famers even share the odd distinction of being a co-MVP -- Manning shared it with Steve McNair in 2003 and Favre shared it with Barry Sanders in 1997.
The Indianapolis Colts quarterback, however, did move past Favre in one category by receiving 32 of this year's 50 votes from The Associated Press. He actually only needed one to set the mark.
Manning has now received MVP votes in seven of his 11 NFL seasons, breaking a record shared by Favre and Jerry Rice, who each had career totals of six. Steve Young and Joe Montana received MVP votes in four individual seasons.
In addition to his three first-place finishes (2008, 2004, 2003), Manning has finished second (2005), tied for second (1999), third (2006) and tied for fifth (2000). Favre won the award in three consecutive years (1997, 1996, 1995) and also has second- (2007, 2002) and third-place (2001) finishes in his 18-year career.
For the curious, Rice finished second (1995, 1987), third (1994, 1993) sixth (1986) and seventh (1990) in a 20-year career.
Receiving any MVP votes in a career can be a difficult task -- future Hall of Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson has received no votes outside of his 2006 MVP season -- and Manning's consistent greatness should not be overlooked.
Nota bene:
- Jerry Rice's feat is astounding in itself because wide receivers are not often recognized by MVP voters. Since Rice's career began in 1985, only Randy Moss (1998) and Sterling Sharpe (1993) and tight end Mark Bavaro (1986) received any MVP votes.
- Eight players received MVP votes in 2008, marking the most split ballot since 1993, when nine players received votes: Emmitt Smith (26), Steve Young (21), Jerry Rice (15), John Elway (10), Troy Aikman (3), Warren Moon (2), Marcus Allen (2), Phil Simms (1), Sterling Sharpe (1).
Note: My research is only complete through 1985, but I am extremely confident no player before then qualifies because careers were much shorter. Please let me know if my data is inaccurate.Peyton Manning was named the 2008 NFL MVP today, and now the debate can really begin. Historically, will Manning or Brett Favre be remembered as the better quarterback?
Both have one Super Bowl ring and both have won three NFL MVPs, the only players to achieve such a feat. The future Hall of Famers even share the odd distinction of being a co-MVP -- Manning shared it with Steve McNair in 2003 and Favre shared it with Barry Sanders in 1997.
The Indianapolis Colts quarterback, however, did move past Favre in one category by receiving 32 of this year's 50 votes from The Associated Press. He actually only needed one to set the mark.
Manning has now received MVP votes in seven of his 11 NFL seasons, breaking a record shared by Favre and Jerry Rice, who each had career totals of six. Steve Young and Joe Montana received MVP votes in four individual seasons.
In addition to his three first-place finishes (2008, 2004, 2003), Manning has finished second (2005), tied for second (1999), third (2006) and tied for fifth (2000). Favre won the award in three consecutive years (1997, 1996, 1995) and also has second- (2007, 2002) and third-place (2001) finishes in his 18-year career.
For the curious, Rice finished second (1995, 1987), third (1994, 1993) sixth (1986) and seventh (1990) in a 20-year career.
Receiving any MVP votes in a career can be a difficult task -- future Hall of Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson has received no votes outside of his 2006 MVP season -- and Manning's consistent greatness should not be overlooked.
Nota bene:
- Jerry Rice's feat is astounding in itself because wide receivers are not often recognized by MVP voters. Since Rice's career began in 1985, only Randy Moss (1998) and Sterling Sharpe (1993) and tight end Mark Bavaro (1986) received any MVP votes.
- Eight players received MVP votes in 2008, marking the most split ballot since 1993, when nine players received votes: Emmitt Smith (26), Steve Young (21), Jerry Rice (15), John Elway (10), Troy Aikman (3), Warren Moon (2), Marcus Allen (2), Phil Simms (1), Sterling Sharpe (1).
Winning streaks
Update: It's worth noting that although the Arizona Cardinals made a valiant effort to prove me wrong, they fell just short of a Super Bowl victory -- and their first four-game winning streak of 2008. Pittsburgh, the Super Bowl winner, recorded a five-game winning streak in the regular season.
In an NFL season, each team has 14 chances to put together a three-game winning streak. If a team can't get it done then, is there any reason to think it can make its last chance count?
In the playoffs, that is what's at stake.
To win the Super Bowl, a team has to put together a three- or four-game winning streak against the toughest competition in the league.
There is no margin of error, and that's why the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals are the most unlikely teams in this year's 16-team playoff field to win the Super Bowl.
Each of the first 42 Super Bowl winners has put together at least a four-game winning streak in the regular season, which was expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1978. The Falcons, Cardinals and Eagles each only managed to reach a three-game winning streak (Philadelphia did it twice).
It's not really surprising two of those teams make the list, because the Eagles (9-6-1) snuck into the playoffs when everything fell their way in the final week of the regular season. The Cardinals (9-7) have barely resembled an NFL franchise since clinching the horrid NFC West in Week 14. And the Cardinals host the Falcons (11-5) on Saturday, so at least one will lose.
Even so, it's worth noting how difficult it is to roll through a postseason after ups and downs in the regular season. Yes, the 2007 New York Giants and 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers each won three road playoff games and the Super Bowl as wild-card teams, but the Giants won six consecutive games in the regular season and the Steelers put together two separate four-game win streaks.
The other three wild-card teams to win Super Bowls -- the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, 1997 Denver Broncos and 1980 Oakland Raiders -- each won at least six straight games in the regular season.
A four-game winning streak is not necessary to qualify for the playoffs. A team can finish 12-4 without compiling one, and several 8-8 teams have found themselves in the posteason. And, you don't automatically win the Super Bowl if you have a successful regular season. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots, who won all 16 regular season games before losing the Super Bowl.
But to win the Super Bowl, you have to string together several victories in the playoffs. It helps to have the experience.
Nota bene:
- For clarity's sake, I didn't count the Eagles' 13-13 tie against the Cincinnatti Bengals as a win, even though ties are not a possible outcome (are you listening, Donovan McNabb?) in postseason games. It didn't factor in, anyway, as the tie was sandwiched between two losses.
- Half the Super Bowl winners had at least a seven-game winning streak, which only the Tennessee Titans (10), Indianapolis Colts (nine) and New York Giants (seven) achieved in 2008.
In an NFL season, each team has 14 chances to put together a three-game winning streak. If a team can't get it done then, is there any reason to think it can make its last chance count?
In the playoffs, that is what's at stake.
To win the Super Bowl, a team has to put together a three- or four-game winning streak against the toughest competition in the league.
There is no margin of error, and that's why the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals are the most unlikely teams in this year's 16-team playoff field to win the Super Bowl.
Each of the first 42 Super Bowl winners has put together at least a four-game winning streak in the regular season, which was expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1978. The Falcons, Cardinals and Eagles each only managed to reach a three-game winning streak (Philadelphia did it twice).
It's not really surprising two of those teams make the list, because the Eagles (9-6-1) snuck into the playoffs when everything fell their way in the final week of the regular season. The Cardinals (9-7) have barely resembled an NFL franchise since clinching the horrid NFC West in Week 14. And the Cardinals host the Falcons (11-5) on Saturday, so at least one will lose.
Even so, it's worth noting how difficult it is to roll through a postseason after ups and downs in the regular season. Yes, the 2007 New York Giants and 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers each won three road playoff games and the Super Bowl as wild-card teams, but the Giants won six consecutive games in the regular season and the Steelers put together two separate four-game win streaks.
The other three wild-card teams to win Super Bowls -- the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, 1997 Denver Broncos and 1980 Oakland Raiders -- each won at least six straight games in the regular season.
A four-game winning streak is not necessary to qualify for the playoffs. A team can finish 12-4 without compiling one, and several 8-8 teams have found themselves in the posteason. And, you don't automatically win the Super Bowl if you have a successful regular season. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots, who won all 16 regular season games before losing the Super Bowl.
But to win the Super Bowl, you have to string together several victories in the playoffs. It helps to have the experience.
Nota bene:
- For clarity's sake, I didn't count the Eagles' 13-13 tie against the Cincinnatti Bengals as a win, even though ties are not a possible outcome (are you listening, Donovan McNabb?) in postseason games. It didn't factor in, anyway, as the tie was sandwiched between two losses.
- Half the Super Bowl winners had at least a seven-game winning streak, which only the Tennessee Titans (10), Indianapolis Colts (nine) and New York Giants (seven) achieved in 2008.
The coin toss
My goal for this blog is a simple one. I want to provide sudden depth on the NFL, an incredibly exciting sports league that is often hijacked by stale and repetitive storylines. I hope to bring both original reporting and some helpful opining to the process.
Of utmost importance, however, is accuracy. Without it, any work I do can be rationally discredited. Please let me know if you see any mistakes, ranging from rogue punctuation to incomplete statistical analysis. And feel free to comment if you have something pertinent to add to the conversation.
Of utmost importance, however, is accuracy. Without it, any work I do can be rationally discredited. Please let me know if you see any mistakes, ranging from rogue punctuation to incomplete statistical analysis. And feel free to comment if you have something pertinent to add to the conversation.
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