Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Is the NFL's landscape static or dynamic?

Ten years ago, Peter King of Sports Illustrated moderated a roundtable of seven NFL personnel to discuss the state of the game -- and its future. Would a re-read of the piece provide any insight after a decade's worth of changes? I have included some interesting portions of the 1999 discussion, and some quick thoughts about their current status.

The roundtable, with current position in parentheses, consisted of:
Bill Ford Jr., Detroit Lions vice chairman (same)
Ron Wolf, Green Bay Packers general manager (retired)
Mike Shanahan, Denver Broncos head coach (retired)
David Hill, Fox Sports TV president (same)
Gene Upshaw, NFL Players Association executive director (deceased)
Paul Tagliabue, NFL commissioner (retired)
Cris Carter, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver (retired, TV broadcaster)

Broadcasting

King: Is that on the horizon, Paul?

Tagliabue: Switching from broadcast television to some subscriber kind of television as the primary way of reaching the public? Certainly not. The Super Bowl becomes a national holiday because we have most of the nation interested and ready to watch it. Now does that mean you have to be static with respect to television? Absolutely not.


The NFL Network, which was launched in 2003, has given some fans 24-hour access to the league. There are some unequivocal positives -- like nationally televising the college all-star games, scouting combine and many preseason games -- but being a cable network has raised its share of problems. Eight of the league's games are now shown only on NFL Network, and some cable companies have refused to pay for the channel because it has marginal appeal to their subscribers.

Competitive balance

King: Ron, after seven years, is the salary cap working?

Wolf: If the idea of the salary cap was to bring about that six-letter word that everyone kind of chokes on, parity, yeah, then it's working. Because what has happened with the cap is, if you become good, you can't stay that way. I don't think, though, there is anything wrong with having a dominant team.


In back-to-back seasons we have seen the league's first 16-0 and 0-16 teams. The New England Patriots have won three Super Bowls in four seasons, and the Miami Dolphins have gone from 1-15 to 10-6 in one season. We know it is possible to have long-term success in the salary-cap era (e.g. Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles), but that certain components -- namely, a top quarterback, coach, and player evaluation system -- are key. The league continues to promote parity by rewarding bad teams with prime draft positions and easy schedules, making it much easier to turn things around quickly.

Player behavior

King: Player behavior. Several teams showed interest in Lawrence Phillips, who has been in a lot of trouble. Three Jets get arrested after a bar fight. The Dolphins sign a convicted cocaine trafficker. Anybody concerned?

Tagliabue: [All the reporting about bad behavior] is sort of a media phenomenon that happens when there's not much else to write about. As Cris said earlier, we could do a better job, but we have 2,500 players coming through the NFL every year. Compared to society at large, especially young people, we've got good young men.


Tagliabue may still be right -- that the vast majority of NFL players are law-abiding citizens -- but the high-profile nature of the Michael Vick and Pacman Jones cases has kept current commissioner Roger Goodell busy handing out punishment. The introduction of a personal-conduct policy has been effective in handling situations across the league more equitably. Also, teams may be growing wary of giving large signing bonuses to players whose bad behavior may make them expendable from the locker room (e.g. Plaxico Burress and the New York Giants).

Expanding schedule

King: Finally, what one thing would you do if you were commissioner for a day?

Carter: I would cancel the fifth preseason game. I'd also like to see the regular season have 14 games instead of 16 games.

King: Why?

Carter: Wear and tear on the body. The product would be better in the playoffs. Especially when you get in situations like we're in in Minnesota and Green Bay where we're practicing on artificial turf three days a week, maybe eight, 10 weeks out of the season.

King: Would you be willing to take less money to play 14 games than to play 16?

Carter: Yes, but I know they're not going to reduce the schedule.


Carter's response is interesting in light of the recent discussions about expanding the regular-season schedule from 16 to 17 or 18 games while at the same time reducing the preseason from four to two games. Several players have said they would need to be paid more in order to accept an extra workload (mostly applicable to starters who don't see much preseason action) because of the increased risk of injuries, particularly career-ending ones.

Conclusion

As with all companies, it's important for the NFL not to relax within a competitive marketplace because there are no guarantees that past success will continue. Nothing hurts worse than labor stoppages (with a 1987 NFL strike, 1994 MLB strike, 1998 NBA lockout and 2004 NHL lockout, it's football's turn again) because fans come back slowly. That's what makes the league's current negotiations regarding the collective-bargaining agreement very important.