Michael Turner's performance -- or lack thereof -- in Saturday's NFC wild-card game between the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals was quite surprising on the surface.
Turner, who rushed for 1,699 yards and a franchise-record 17 touchdowns in the regular season, finished with only 42 rushing yards on 18 carries in the Falcons' 30-24 loss. He did score a 7-yard rushing touchdown in the second quarter, but his yardage tied a season-worst total.
When compared to the other top 45 rushing seasons in NFL history -- quantified as a 1,600-yard season for the sake of argument -- Turner's struggles particularly stand out. Only five of those 45 running backs compiled fewer yards in their postseason opener.
Be wary, however, of assigning too much blame to Turner for the Falcons' loss.
The heralded statistic that Atlanta went 8-0 in the regular season when Turner ran for 100-plus yards is a common, but misleading, figure. The circular reasoning only shows that teams are likely to win when they are leading in the fourth quarter -- as a result, they run the ball to drain the clock -- and are likely to lose when they are trailing in the fourth quarter -- in an attempt to catch up quickly, they pass the ball.
Case in point: Turner carried the ball seven times in the first quarter, eight times in the second, three times in the third, and none in the fourth. Although the Falcons led 17-14 at halftime, a fumbled exchange between quarterback Matt Ryan and Turner on the second play of the second half resulted in a defensive touchdown for Arizona, who never trailed again.
Nota bene:
- Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, who picked up 1,760 rushing yards in the regular season, rushed for 83 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in Sunday's 26-14 loss to Philadelphia. He only carried the ball two times in the fourth quarter, which the Vikings entered trailing 16-14.
- The best playoff-opening performance following a season of 1,600-plus rushing yards? Terrell Davis picked up 199 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in Denver's 38-3 win over Miami after rushing for 2,008 yards in 1998. The worst? Barry Sanders finished with negative 1 yard on 13 carries in Detroit's 16-12 loss to Green Bay Packers after rushing for 1,883 yards in 1994.
- Fourteen of the 46 highest rushing seasons in league history did not even result in playoff berths. Of the remaining 32 players, 18 won their respective playoff openers. In those games, running backs who finished with 100-plus yards only went 6-7, and players who finished with sub-50 yardage totals finished 2-6.
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