2010 playoff watch

I attempted this last year and gave up after a few weeks. I'll try to avoid that problem this year by simplifying my job. This will be a running thread of the weekly playoff picture. It's pure chaos after Week 1 because of the vast number of tiebreakers needed. That's why teams like the Patriots and Packers aren't yet in the playoffs despite season-opening wins.

The teams are listed in order of seedings, and I'm providing the link to the relevant tiebreaker information. It should be interesting to see how fluid (or not) the postseason berths are throughout the year.
* Teams that wouldn't have made the playoffs the previous week

Week 1
AFC: Dolphins (1-0), Chiefs (1-0), Texans (1-0), Ravens (1-0), Titans (1-0), Jaguars (1-0)
NFC: Seahawks (1-0), Bears (1-0), Saints (1-0), Redskins (1-0), Cardinals (1-0), Giants (1-0)

Week 2
AFC: *Steelers (2-0), Dolphins (2-0), Chiefs (2-0), Texans (2-0), *Chargers (1-1), *Jets (1-1)
NFC: Bears (2-0), *Buccaneers (2-0), Seahawks (2-0), Redskins (2-0), *Packers (2-0), Saints (2-0)

Why your NFL picks are wrong

Ask the average NFL fan what teams will make the playoffs and they will rattle off last year's participants. Ask the average NFL analyst, and you will likely get the same response. 

Even professionals like to play it safe during preseason predictions by selecting almost exactly what happened last year. It's a way to minimize risk because the potential reward is medicore. The Steelers were a popular pick to make the Super Bowl last season after winning the title in 2008. Pittsburgh didn't even make the playoffs, but who can be faulted for assuming they would be good? Anybody that picked the Bengals to make the playoffs following a 4-11-1 season was laughed at. 

Thankfully, there are some commentators who are also "enlightened." Mike Florio of profootballtalk.com decries the trend to pick the same playoff teams and Bill Simmons of espn.com (justifiably) bucks convention and only picks six playoff teams to repeat.  

Here are two legitimate trends you should follow when making NFL predictions. 

1. There have been at least five new playoff teams and three new division winners every season since 2003, the year after the NFL split into eight divisions of four teams. And this is understating the trend -- there have been 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 5, 8 new playoff teams (6.428 average) and 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 3, 5 new division winners (3.571 average) since 2003.  

And these aren't all 8-8 teams that win two more games -- at least one team every season made the playoffs after finishing with five wins or fewer the previous year. Need the proof?  

2009: Bengals, 4-11-1 to 11-5
2008: Dolphins, 1-15 to 11-5; Ravens, 5-11 to 11-5; Falcons, 4-12 to 11-5
2007: Buccaneers, 4-12 to 9-7; Redskins, 5-11 to 9-7
2006: Jets, 4-12 to 10-6; Saints, 3-13 to 10-6
2005: Bears, 5-11 to 11-5; Buccaneers 5-11 to 11-5
2004: Chargers, 4-12 to 12-4; Falcons 5-11 to 11-5
2003: Cowboys, 5-11 to 10-6  

I plan on doing more research on common threads between these teams, but the most basic is a new quarterback (or one returning from a season lost to injury) and/or new coach. That's why I picked the 5-11 Raiders (huge upgrade from JaMarcus Russell to Jason Campbell) and 4-12 Redskins (Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb are wily veterans) to make the playoffs.  

2. During that same timeframe, at least two of the four conference championship teams -- 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4 since 2003 -- didn't make it that far the previous season.  

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the season. Playoff teams are in bold.  

AFC East: Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Bills
AFC North: Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Browns
AFC South: Colts, Texans, Titans, Jaguars
AFC West: Raiders, Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos
NFC East: Cowboys, Redskins, Giants, Eagles
NFC North: Packers, Bears, Vikings, Lions
NFC South: Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Buccaneers
NFC West: 49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams 

AFC Championship: Dolphins over Colts
NFC Championship: Packers over 49ers
Super Bowl: Packers over Dolphins