Missing the HOF cut

The Pro Football Hall of Fame announced its initial list of 2012 modern-era nominees — the ballot starts with 101 names before getting pared down to 25 semifinalists, 15 finalists and eventually five to seven inductees. (The organization previously announced the two senior nominees — Steelers defensive back James Butler and Lions guard Dick Stanfel — whom will be voted on separately.) Although most news outlets will understandably talk about the first-year nominees, I'm curious to see who wasn't named after making last year's initial list:

Quarterbacks: Ken Anderson, Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams
Running backs: Ottis Anderson
Wide receivers: Herman Moore, Stanley Morgan, Mike Quick, J.T. Smith
Tight ends: Mark Bavaro, Ben Coates, Russ Francis, Brent Jones
Offensive linemen: Bruce Armstrong (center)
Defensive linemen: Al "Bubba" Baker (defensive end), Ray Childress (defensive end/defensive tackle)
Linebackers: Darryl Talley
Defensive backs: Bill Bates (safety), Lester Hayes (cornerback), Frank Minnifield (cornerback), Louis Wright (cornerback)
Special teams: Ray Guy (punter)
Coaches: None
Administrators: Ole Haugsrud (owner), Frank "Bucko" Kilroy (administrator), Bill Nunn (administrator). Joe Robbie (owner), Art Rooney, Jr. (administrator), Carroll Rosenbloom (owner)

My basic criterion for the Hall of Fame is dominance at your position during your era, which is especially relevant as the inflation of passing statistics continues. Evaluating all-pro nominations is extremely helpful, because it's hard to argue you deserve to be recognized among the all-time best if you were rarely recognized as best among your peers. And while most of these candidates are destined for The Hall of the Very Good, a few names do stick out:

Ken Anderson: It looks like Anderson will join the list of one-time MVP quarterbacks not in the Hall of Fame because he hasn't been a finalist since 1998. But although it's difficult to evaluate quarterbacks across eras, he led the NFL in passer rating four times, joining a select group of Steve Young, Roger Staubach and Otto Graham.

Al Baker: Considered one of the NFL's greatest pass-rushers, Baker's numbers suffer because sacks didn't become an official statistic until 1983. By that time, Baker had compiled seasons of 23, 16, 18 and 10 sacks according to unofficial research — his adjusted total of 131.5 career sacks would move him into 11th place. 

Lester Hayes: It's been an interesting path for Hayes, who was a Hall of Fame finalist from 2001 to 2004 before slipping to a semifinalist from 2005 to 2010 and not even making the preliminary list in 2012. It's likely he has been devalued because of his signature contribution: The NFL banned Stickum in 1981, one year after Hayes used it to help snag 18 interceptions (13 in the 12 regular-season games he played and five in four postseason games). 

Ray Guy: I think it's unacceptable that no punters have been inducted — it clearly is a position, and someone must be the best (Reggie Roby is the only punter on the ballot) — but some argue Guy is overrated. That position is infamously held by former Sports Illustrated writer Paul Zimmerman, who touts the unheralded Tommy Davis and explains his distaste for Guy in a 2005 story about punting:

But once again, for the umpteenth time, Ray Guy appears on the Hall of Fame ballot. His lifetime gross average was an unimpressive 42.4. I got a letter on his behalf from some lobbying agency that tried to cover this number by explaining that he made up for it by pinning the enemy deep with coffin-corner kicks. This is a flat out lie written by someone who probably spells football with a pf. Guy's big weakness was that he didn't go for the edges. He was a middle of the end zone punter, although he had the livest leg in the game and when he caught one it really hung.

NFL should hit the books

Falcons cornerback Dunta Robinson, right, was fined $40,000 for his
tackle of Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. (Getty Images)

If I may channel my inner Obama, let me be clear.

Falcons cornerback Dunta Robinson did nothing illegal when he viciously tackled Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin during Sunday night's football game. The NFL doesn't agree, fining Robinson $40,000 for being "a repeat offender of player safety rules" after he was fined $50,000 (later dropped to $25,000 on appeal) for a legitimate penalty against Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson last season.

But therein lies the problem. Although the plays look similar, they're quite distinct. The NFL says you can't penalize a helmet-to-helmet hit against a runner, which is why Steelers linebacker James Harrison didn't get fined (a shock, I know) for his hit against Browns receiver Josh Cribbs last season.

It's admittedly difficult for officials to make the distinction between a defenseless receiver and a runner — at some amorphous point, the former becomes the latter — while watching live game action. But there's a problem when the NFL office doesn't acknowledge the difference after watching slow-motion replays.

When the NFL announced Robinson's most recent fine, the press release tried to clarify the league's position (emphasis theirs).

On the play, Robinson lowered his head and made forcible contact to the head and neck area of Philadelphia wide receiver JEREMY MACLIN.  Although Maclin completed the catch, he was still a defenseless player under the rule because he did not have time to protect himself and had not clearly become a runner.

Maybe they should actually read the "Clarification of Hits on Defenseless Players and Roughing the Passer Fouls" section included in the league's discipline guidelines.

If the receiver/runner is capable of avoiding or warding off the impending contact of an opponent, he is no longer a defeneseless player.

Jackson couldn't even get his second foot down before Robinson's blow, so the fine was legitimate. It's pretty clear, however, that after Maclin caught the ball, he saw Robinson and started to turn his body to avoid a bone-crushing hit. Maclin didn't succeed, of course, but the distinction is meaningless if you have to actually avoid the hit — because then helmet-to-helmet contact wouldn't have happened.

NBC color analyst Chris Collinsworth even says "there was plenty of time to react on this one" — referring to Robinson, of course — and play-by-play announcer Al Michaels adds "at least Maclin knew it was coming, for that's worth." It's worth everything! NFL players can initiate helmet-to-helmet contact against a runner as long as they don't launch off the ground (which Robinson came dangerously close to doing).

But let's look at the bright side. There was a worse perversion of justice last season when the officials penalized the Philadelphia Eagles and incorrectly called a fumble an incomplete pass simply because Colts receiver Austin Collie was visibly concussed from a legal hit.

To QBR or not to QBR?

During the NFL lockout, ESPN filled airtime by revealing Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), which the cable giant presumably hopes will overtake passer rating as the comprehensive way to quickly evaluate quarterbacks. But even in this Sabermetrics era, I don't think the metric will resonate with football fans. (That's not to say it won't make inroads with team personnel, although I'm not bullish on that either.)

QBR has too many moving parts, which makes it impossible for the average viewer to calculate. Passer rating isn't popularly understood either, but the formula is accessible and requires only four easily-obtainable statistics — completion percentage, passing yardage, touchdowns and interceptions. QBR requires analysis of every action play (i.e. non-handoff) by a quarterback, which certainly provides value but is too cumbersome for a fan to calculate.

More importantly, however, is that it's unlikely QBR ultimately provides enough of a distinction from passer rating. Take a look at the QBR and passer rating leaders after Week 1 (with two "Monday Night Football" games to play):

QBR (Max = 100)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 91.2
Aaron Rodgers, 91.1
Matthew Stafford, 87.4
Joe Flacco, 79.6
Cam Newton, 75.7
Rex Grossman, 75.0
Drew Brees, 71.6
Matt Schaub, 71.0
Michael Vick, 68.4
Alex Smith, 66.2

Passer Rating (Max = 158.3)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 133.0
Aaron Rodgers, 132.1
Kevin Kolb, 130.0
Matthew Stafford, 118.9
Joe Flacco, 117.6
Drew Brees, 112.5
Rex Grossman, 110.5
Cam Newton, 110.4
Jay Cutler, 107.8
Andy Dalton, 102.4

Seven quarterbacks made both top 10 lists, and even the order is fairly consistent, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Aaron Rodgers topping both metrics. The bottom of the lists isn't too different, either, with Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Cassel in the bottom three alongside Donovan McNabb (passer rating) and Kerry Collins (QBR). There are a few major differences — Mark Sanchez is No. 26 in QBR but No. 15 in passer rating, probably because Sanchez's fourth-quarter interception is weighted heavily by QBR's "Clutch Factor" while all interceptions are equal in passer rating.

What's most important to recognize is that it's obvious what quarterbacks are good without either rating. Anyone watching the season opener knew Rodgers and Drew Brees were having strong performances even if no statistics were available. And if you looked at the raw numbers, it's no surprise that finishing 24-of-37 for 422 yards, two touchdowns and an interception — plus a rushing touchdown — means Cam Newton had an impressive NFL debut.

(As an aside, QBR's biggest strength is that it incorporates rushing statistics — which explains why Michael Vick finished No. 17 overall in passer rating, but comes in No. 9 in QBR. But once again, that's self-evident because anyone who knows Vick rushed for 98 yards instantaneously assigns that additional value.)

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise as the sample size grows, but QBR doesn't hit the sweet spot yet.

2011 NFC predictions

NFC East
Eagles* 11-5, Cowboys* 10-6, Giants 6-10, Redskins 3-13
How can the Cowboys seriously think Super Bowl? Preseason darling Philadelphia is getting all the media attention, but Dallas has the offensive weapons — quarterback Tony Romo, running back Felix Jones, wide receivers Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, and tight end Jason Witten — to challenge. It's well documented the Cowboys rallied under coach Jason Garrett after starting 1-7 last season, and the defense has the talent to follow suit with new coordinator Rob Ryan. Linebacker DeMarcus Ware is the star pupil after leading the league with 15.5 sacks, but nose tackle Jay Ratliff, linebacker Keith Brooking and cornerback Terence Newman are underrated pieces to the puzzle.

NFC North
Packers* 12-4, Bears* 10-6, Lions 7-9, Vikings 5-11
How can the Bears return to the postseason? Most pundits are swept up by the Detroit Lions bandwagon, but Chicago wasn't just lucky last season when it won the division title. The Bears beat four playoff participants at home — the Packers, Eagles, Jets and Seahawks — while limiting teams to 17.9 points per game, fourth in the league. Defensive end Julius Peppers anchors that talented and young defense, which continues to receive key production from linebacker Brian Urlacher. Scoring more points is important, and the addition of rookie offensive tackle Gabe Carimi should help keep quarterback Jay Cutler off the ground after he was sacked a league-high 52 times. 

NFC South
Saints* 13-3, Falcons 10-6, Buccaneers 9-7, Panthers 4-12
How can the Falcons miss the playoffs? There's quite the bitter taste in Atlanta's mouth after getting routed by Green Bay in the divisional playoffs. Unfortunately, the offense isn't guaranteed to improve because running back Michael Turner and tight end Tony Gonzalez are clearly slowing down, and wide receiver Julio Jones will learn why it's an infamously difficult position for a rookie. Signing free-agent defensive end Ray Edwards will help the defense, which is productive but not flashy. The NFC South is known for annual tumult, and the Falcons aren't immune — it's possible their Week 1 matchup at the Chicago Bears could become the postseason tiebreaker.

NFC West
Cardinals* 9-7, Rams 8-8, 49ers 7-9, Seahawks 4-12
How does Arizona rise to a division title? Everything changed when the Cardinals obtained quarterback Kevin Kolb, who lost his job in Philadelphia after a concussion because Michael Vick proved dynamic. Even if Kolb isn't Pro Bowl-caliber, he's skilled enough to showcase superstar receiver Larry Fitzgerald after last season's Derek Anderson/John Skelton/Max Hall debacle. Although the Cardinals lost cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kolb trade, they drafted potential shutdown cornerback Patrick Peterson with the No. 5 overall pick. Defensive ends Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett can help cover up enough flaws to survive the league's worst division.

NFC playoffs (teams marked by *)
Wild-card round: Eagles beat Bears, Cowboys beat Cardinals
Divisional round: Cowboys beat Saints, Packers beat Eagles
Conference championship: Cowboys beat Packers
Super Bowl: Patriots beat Cowboys

2011 AFC predictions

AFC East
Patriots* (13-3), Jets (9-7), Dolphins (6-10), Bills (6-10)
How can the Jets miss the playoffs? New York played in the past two AFC Championship games but relying on 34-year-old wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who returns to the NFL after a two-year prison sentence on gun charges, and aging running back LaDainian Tomlinson will hurt its three-peat chances. The Jets also lost key role players — wide receivers Brad Smith and Jerricho Cotchery and defensive linemen Shaun Ellis and Jason Taylor — in free agency while flirting with cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha.Running back Shonn Greene still needs to show he can shoulder the load behind a capable offensive line, and critics will continue accusing quarterback Mark Sanchez of being a game manager. Cornerback Darrelle Revis remains a superstar, but the Jets' defense may be hampered by an aging linebacker corps — Bryan Thomas (32), Bart Scott (31) and Calvin Pace (30) join David Harris (27).

AFC North
Ravens* (12-4), Steelers* (10-6), Browns (6-10), Bengals (2-14)
How can the Ravens end the Steelers' reign? The Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry is smashmouth football at its finest, with eight close meetings — Pittsburgh by 7, Pittsburgh by 3, Baltimore by 3, Baltimore by 3, Pittsburgh by 3, Pittsburgh by 9, Pittsburgh by 4, Pittsburgh by 3 — in the past three seasons. The Steelers twice eliminated the Ravens in the playoffs during that timespan, but the Pittsburgh defense is aging and Baltimore aggressively added offensive pieces this offseason. Fullback Vonta Leach is a fierce blocker, wide receiver Lee Evans is a deep threat, offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie boasts rare size and running back Ricky Williams will provide important depth. Baltimore isn't a blitz-happy defense anymore,  but it's finished third in points allowed three consecutive seasons and is anchored up the middle by defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, linebacker Ray Lewis and free safety Ed Reed.

AFC South
Texans* (10-6), Colts (8-8), Titans (7-9), Jaguars (5-11)
How can the Texans make their first postseason appearance? Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning's neck injury certainly opens the window of opportunity for Houston, which has watched the Colts win seven of nine potential AFC South titles. But that's not to say the Texans haven't improved — the arrival of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips alone will bolster a defense that allowed 24 or more points in 14 games last season. Former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams is moving from defensive end to linebacker in Phillips' 3-4 scheme, and Houston welcomes rookie defensive end J.J. Watt, rookie linebacker Brooks Reed and unsung cornerback Johnathan Joseph, who left Cincinnati in free agency. And there's no reason to think the deadly quartet of quarterback Matt Schaub, running back Arian Foster, wide receiver Andre Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels will stop pouring on the points.

AFC West 
Chargers* (11-5), Broncos* (10-6), Raiders (7-9), Chiefs (6-10)
How can Denver go from 4-12 to the playoffs? At the risk of beating a dead Bronco, it's not a rare journey. Denver had the league's worst defense last season (in points and yards allowed), but that won't happen again with the return of defensive end Elvis Dumervil, who missed 2010 with a torn pectoral muscle but has 43 career sacks in four seasons, and the addition of rookie linebacker Von Miller, the No. 2 overall draft pick who shined in the preseason. New coach Jon Fox finished at least 7-9 in his first eight seasons with Carolina, including three playoff appearances and a Super Bowl. Quarterback Kyle Orton was on pace to finish fourth in passing yards — behind Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees — if Denver didn't test drive 2010 first-round draft pick Tim Tebow for three games. And don't forget Denver has one of the NFL's best offensive tackles (Ryan Clady) and cornerbacks (Champ Bailey).

AFC playoffs (teams marked by *)
Wild-card round: Chargers beat Broncos, Texans beat Steelers
Divisional round: Patriots beat Texans, Ravens beat Chargers
Conference championship: Patriots beat Ravens

Hope for the NFL's downtrodden

Fred Jackson and the Buffalo Bills were 4-12 last season, but aren't out of the playoff race.

I'm not making my season predictions yet, but it's worth following up on last year's post about three legitimate trends prognosticators need to begin recognizing. Although my specific picks were bad, was I vindicated?

At least five new playoff teams and three new division winners

True. The Steelers, Chiefs, Bears, Falcons and Seahawks were new division winners.

I respect Sports Illustrated's Peter King, and he had the foresight to predict the Packers and Steelers to make Super Bowl XLV last preseason. But he only picked three new playoff teams this year — Chargers, Lions and Rams — and there certainly will be more turnover. For what it's worth, King foresees a Falcons-Chargers title game this year.

A team makes the playoffs after finishing with five wins or fewer the previous year

True. I picked the two wrong teams — Redskins and Raiders, although Oakland did finish 8-8 — but the Chiefs improved from 4-12 to 10-6 and the Seahawks improved from 5-11 to 7-9. Additionally, the Buccaneers went from 3-13 to 10-6 without making the playoffs and the Rams went from 1-15 to 7-9.

I postulated the simplest reasons a team improves is because of a new quarterback and/or coach, which doesn't explain Kansas City's rise (although Matt Cassel played better in his second year with the team). But Seattle had a new coach (Pete Carroll) and Tampa Bay (Josh Freeman) and St. Louis (Sam Bradford) had new quarterbacks. 

So who are this year's candidates?

Arizona (5-11)
Cleveland (5-11)
Buffalo (4-12)
Cincinnati (4-12)
Denver (4-12)
Carolina (2-14)

I admit it's hard to stomach that one of these teams will make the playoffs, but it's quite simply always the case — the Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV after finishing 4-12 and the Dolphins made the 2009 playoffs after finishing 1-15. The NFL is a parity-driven league and rewards teams with miserable records by giving them an easier schedule.

For what it's worth, Arizona, Cincinnati and Carolina have new quarterbacks and Denver and Cleveland have a new coach this season. Unsurprisingly, King doesn't predict any of these teams will make the postseason.

Two of the four conference championship teams weren't there the year before

True. Although my predictions were wrong again — the Dolphins and 49ers didn't even make the playoffs — the Steelers, Bears and Packers were fresh participants in last season's conference championship games.

At least King doesn't shy away here, picking four new teams — the Chargers, Ravens, Falcons and Saints.

Performance-enhancing offseason?

Editor's note: I never published this in May 2010 because I was waiting for more response from AP voters, but I regret that decision because I think the piece added to the conversation. Because I don't want it to go completely to waste, here's a post completely irrelevant to the current newscycle. I didn't change anything other than updating a dead link.

Something has been lost amid the hubbub over Brian Cushing's steroid suspension — the Houston Texans linebacker will miss four games after testing positive for hCG, a fertility drug used during steroid cycles — and The Associated Press' unprecedented decision to revote for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.

It's not surprising that almost half of the AP voters (24 of 50) switched their votes. Several commentators are arguing nobody should have voted a second time for Cushing, who won the award again. I'll leave that for others to decide, although I don't fault holding a revote (Cushing tested positive in September, at the beginning of his rookie season) or voting for Cushing twice (in an attempt to avoid revising history).

What's surprising is the breakdown of the revote reveals four voters who changed their minds originally voted for someone other than Cushing. Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was brazen enough to change his vote to Cushing after originally selecting Buffalo Bills safety Jairus Byrd.

David Elfin, formerly of the Washington Times, changed his vote from Byrd to Washington Redskins linebacker Bryan Orapko. Len Shapiro of the Miami Herald changed his vote from Orapko to Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews. Howard Balzer of Fox Sports Net changed his vote from Orapko to St. Louis linebacker James Laurinaitis, who didn't receive any votes in the original tally.

It seems likely Cushing took steroids to improve his on-field performance. But what did these players do during the offseason — there were four months between the votes — to boost their predetermined statistics? I reached out to the aforementioned voters to get some insight into their thought process.

Elfin said he gave his decision more thought, and considered how Orakpo — who played defensive end at Texas — had changed positions since college.

"It was razor-close each time," Elfin wrote in an e-mail. "I just decided that Orakpo had a slightly better season on a good defense."

I don't fault any of the voters for changing their mind. It's a sign of intelligence when people are comfortable enough to form a new opinion after receiving additional information (most blatantly in Cushing's case).

The Pro Football Hall of Fame even embraces the power of persuasion, for better or worse. Each of the semifinalists receives a presentation (often from a voter who covers their former team) arguing for their induction before the 50 voters

Perhaps the moral of the story is that the AP should give voters more time before collecting their ballots for postseason awards. I don't know exactly how the process works, but Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin was named Offensive Rookie of the Year only three days after the regular season ended.

The voters likely have an idea of who they will select by that point, but there's no reason to expedite the process. With two weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, why not give the voters some extra time and announce all the award winners during that dead time?