Tuesday, January 6, 2009

History suggests Herm Edwards will be fired

Update: Herm Edwards was fired today, Jan. 23. Between my post and this update, Upon Further Review examined the records of coaches who lead teams coming off bad seasons.

Upon Further Review, a blog about Kansas City sports, has some insightful statistical analysis that causes writer Martin Manley to believe Chiefs coach Herm Edwards will certainly be fired, and that the franchise is simply waiting to hire a new general manager first.

Manley provides three comparisons to show why Edwards is a goner -- he has the worst record of active coaches with 80+ games, most non-expansion coaches with records of 2-14 or worse are fired, and so do coaches with miserable records after three seasons with a team.

My thoughts? Modern society contains so many entertainment options that owners of sports teams feel the need to ensure their product is profitable. When you're not winning, the best way to accomplish that is by promising change. Although a coach might ultimately end up being successful in a later job (future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick, who went 36-44 in Cleveland, comes to mind), it's often not a risk worth taking.

Nota bene:

If I get really ambitious, I might have to take up Manley on his implicit challenge:

I don’t have any way to measure this apart from about 1,000 hours of work, however... If I had produced this list every year, I would think the odds would be pretty darn good that the lowest active career winning percentage coach on the list would be gone most of the time

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