Wednesday Morning Quarterback

I'm working on a post about the Hall of Fame chances of now-retired coach Tony Dungy, but this will have to do in the meantime.

For the most part, I agree with Gregg Easterbrook, who writes a weekly column at ESPN.com during the football season called "Tuesday Morning Quarterback." I do want to point out a portion from his most recent column, however, with which I vehemently disagree.

Sour Play of the Week: The atmosphere was electric at Long Playing Field, the crowd raucous as it expected to watch the AFC first seed notch the first victory of its Super Bowl run. The Titans staged a solid early drive and scored to take a 6-0 lead, just as Tennessee had scored first in 2001, when Baltimore came to Nashville and upset the favored home team in the divisional round. Tennessee lined up for the extra point, and Baltimore jumped offsides. Half the distance moved the ball to the 1, whence the PAT was kicked. But wait -- now the ball is on the 1-yard line, go for two! Tennessee rushed well on the day. There's only 1 yard to cover, go for two! Had Jeff Fisher gone for two and taken an 8-0 lead, it would have communicated the message that Tennessee would play all-out to win. Even a missed deuce try would have communicated this message. Instead the Titans played cautious, and that would become the theme of the team's loss -- see below.

I'm all for breaking trends because it's one way to gain a competitive advantage in football, and because I think the status quo is not always the correct strategy. Easterbrook makes these points often, and well. In this case, however, I think his analysis of the Titans' decision is shortsighted.

In the regular season, the Tennessee Titans (14.6 points per game) and Baltimore Ravens (15.2) finished second and third, respectively, for average defensive points allowed. Both teams were also among the lowest-scoring offenses -- Titans, 23.4; Ravens, 24.1 -- that qualified for the playoffs.

All this to say that the divisional playoff game between the Titans and Ravens was expected to be a low-scoring affair. Tennessee beat Baltimore 13-10 in a regular-season meeting, and the Ravens only allowed nine points in their wild-card victory over the Dolphins. That the playoff game, which was won by Baltimore 13-10, was also low-scoring is convenient but ultimately irrelevant.

If the Titans attempted a two-point conversion once a penalty moved the ball to the 1-yard-line (and the odds don't increase in their favor that much, anyway), they would be taking an unnecessary amount of risk.

Making it, to go up 8-0, would be nice but wouldn't catch Baltimore off guard for more than the initial play. Missing it, however, would potentially be disastrous in such a low-scoring game. It would be entirely foolish to lead 6-0 only to lose 7-6, 10-9 or 14-13 -- three highly potential outcomes considering an expected dearth in scoring opportunities for both teams.

Unless a coach has made the decision to go for two-point conversions after every touchdown (which I think is a tenable position), it makes no sense to attempt two-point conversions until at least midway through the third quarter. By doing so earlier, you are providing your opponent extra information despite having a miniscule amount of information regarding the final score. In this case, the risk is exacerbated by the likelihood that the game would end up with a low final score.