Snow in Buffalo? T.O. still a go

Amid all the hubbub about Terrell Owens being signed by the Buffalo Bills (as a transplanted western New Yorker, I was among those completely blindsided by the news), I found most interesting one online comment -- essentially, "Have fun dropping all those passes in the cold."

Owens, although a Hall-of-Fame caliber talent, is notorious for dropping passes -- according to the Washington Post, he led the NFL with 17 in 2006, tied for third with 10 in 2007 and finished fourth with 10 in 2008.

Because he's nearing the end of his career, nobody expects Owens to put up monster statistics in Buffalo. The assertion got me thinking, however, if it is harder for wide receivers to find success in cold, outdoor environments. And, yes, Buffalo certainly qualifies. It would be possible to do an in-depth study of this phenomenon (or lack thereof), but here's a quick one for simplicity's sake:

Approximately one-third of the 32 NFL franchises could be described as playing their eight home games in cold, outdoor environments. Those 14 unlucky teams? (Minnesota, Detroit, Indianapolis and St. Louis play in domes)

AFC East
Buffalo
New England
New York
AFC North
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Baltimore
AFC West
Denver
Kansas City
NFC East
Philadelphia
New York
Washington
NFC North
Green Bay
Chicago

Granted, only about three or four home games played in November and December should be affected by sub-freezing temperatures and the possibility of snow. But based on my best recollections, significantly less than one-third of the top NFL receivers have played with those franchises.

Of the 60 seasons in which a player has caught 100-plus passes, exactly one-third (20) came in cold-weather environments. None of the top 10 did, however, and eight of those top 10 came with teams that play in domes.

Of the 58 seasons in which a player has recorded 1,400-plus receiving yards, slightly less than one-quarter (14) came with cold-weather teams. None of the top 10 did, and seven of the top 10 came in domes.

Of the 45 seasons in which a player caught 14-plus touchdowns, slightly less than one-third (11) were from cold-weather teams. In this case, though, four of the top 12 came with cold-weather teams, including Randy Moss's record-setting 23-touchdown performance with the New England Patriots.

It looks like T.O. doesn't have too much to worry about, after all. Well, about the weather, at least. For the curious, Owens has one season of 100-plus catches (2002 with San Francisco), two of 1,400-plus yards (2000, 2001 with San Francisco) and four with 14-plus touchdown catches (1998, 2001 with San Francisco; 2004 in cold-weather Philadelphia; 2005 with Dallas).

Houshmandzadeh's svelte in ... number

I was surprised to find out that new Seattle Seahawks wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who signed with the team this week, will wear No. 18, as ESPN.com's Mike Sando reported in a recent blog post.

My curiosity was piqued because Sando revealed that the decision leaves No. 84 available for free agent Bobby Engram, if he chooses to return to the Seahawks. I was under the impression that wide receivers could only wear Nos. 10-19 if Nos. 80-89 were already taken. When only Nos. 80-89 were designated for wide receivers and tight ends, it became possible to run out if you carried more than six wide receivers and three tight ends on the roster.

But apparently I missed the memo. Prior to the 2004 season, the NFL changed the rules so wide receivers can use the No. 10-19 if they are rookies or on a new team. Numbers matter to many athletes as superstition, identity or homage (Chad Ocho Cinco, nee Johnson, wears No. 84), and ESPN.com exquisitely documented that several rookies jumped at the change.

Reggie Bush of the New Orleans Saints, wore No. 5 in college and tried to get the NFL to change their rules in 2006. The league considered a proposal to allow position players to wear Nos. 1-49, but it was never approved.

For a brief overview of why the NFL assigns numbers based on positions, and what the classifications are, read this Wikipedia post.

And, down the rabbit hole
I'm a big Randy Moss fan, and knew he wore No. 18 as a rookie with the Minnesota Vikings during the preseason before switching to No. 84. He went back to No. 18 during his Oakland years to channel some of his youth:

"I saw 18 on the list and I just went with it. I just thought about me leaving Minnesota, coming here to Oakland to make a new start, and going back to the number that really brought me into this league. Dangerous -- and I want to get back to being a dangerous football player."

When Boston Globe's Mike Reiss reported last year that Moss would wear No. 81 (the inverse of No. 18) with New England, he revealed "[Moss] had actually warmed to the idea of wearing No. 6 -- the amount of points awarded for a touchdown -- but was required to make the switch."

Still deeper in Wonderland
The comments on this 2008 post on Uni Watch, an excellent blog about everything associated with sports uniforms, answered some of my other questions (and raised some others).

At least two tight ends -- Washington's Chris Cooley and Indianapolis' Dallas Clark -- currently wear numbers in the 40s (44 and 41 respectively), presumably because they can be considered H-backs (an uncommon hybrid position of a fullback, halfback and tight end).

And, yes, Keyshawn Johnson wore No. 19 as the No. 1 overall pick for the New York Jets in 1998 well before it was allowed. As the aforementioned ESPN.com article explains:

This trend toward teen numbers can be traced directly to the Dallas Cowboys' No. 19.

"Follow me," Keyshawn Johnson said in the Cowboys' locker room. "It's nothing new. Seems like I always set a standard."

According to the Jets, all of their jerseys in the 80s were taken when Johnson was the No. 1 draft choice in 1996. He was given No. 19, standard procedure for a new player. But after the final cuts were made and some 80s became available, Johnson fought hard to hang onto No. 19. For reasons even the NFL can't quite explain, Johnson was allowed to keep the number.

That same year, some veteran receivers petitioned the league for numbers in the teens, but were denied.

"Keyshawn found a loophole," explained Gene Washington, the NFL's director of operations. "He was very persistent. The next year, we closed the loophole."

"I always wanted to be different," Johnson said. "I didn't want to be like everybody else. And the one thing I could do to identify myself to the fans and the world was by wearing a different number as an outsider."

Harrison's waning career

Update: Now, only two players among the top 15 reception leaders have played for one team -- Rod Smith, retired, and Marvin Harrison, who remains unsigned. In the offseason, Torry Holt was released by the St. Louis Rams and signed by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tony Gonzalez was traded from the Kansas City Chiefs to the Atlanta Falcons.

The Indianapolis Colts released Marvin Harrison, who had played for the franchise for his entire 13-year career, last week and the future Hall of Fame wide receiver has yet to sign with another team. Can we expect to see Harrison wearing new colors next year, or is his career finished?

Bear with me for a moment, while I set up the background.

Harrison wasn't released solely because he is incapable of playing football anymore. The Colts couldn't afford to pay him so much -- Harrison was scheduled to make $13.4 million in 2009, the highest amount of any receiver, and the Colts saved $6 million in salary by releasing him -- and already have bonafide star Reggie Wayne and up-and-comer Anthony Gonzalez.

At the age of 36, Harrison clearly is nearing the end of his career. But even though he wasn't the No. 1 receiver in Indianapolis the past few seasons, he was a capable No. 2 or No. 3 option -- and there are plenty of teams out there that could use his presence, as ESPN.com's Bill Williamson attested.

In his most recent column, Sports Illustrated's Peter King said he thinks Harrison is done:

I would be surprised if Marvin Harrison plays again. Here's the thing about Harrison: He's made more than $80 million in his 13-year career, including $23 million over the last three seasons. He was due to make $9 million this year. His knees are hurt and he doesn't love football enough at this point to play for something like $2 million plus incentives. In fact, I don't think he loves football much at all right now, feeling the way he feels. And he's not going to fake it. Might he go to someone's camp this summer? Only if the gets real money to do so.

King's colleague, Arash Markazi, however, wrote shortly after Harrison's release that the wide receiver was almost done, but not quite.

Harrison's career isn't over. He'll likely play another season or two, but chances are it won't be for a team outside of Indianapolis. That is unless some team is more enamored with Harrison's name and legacy rather than what he can still do on the field. The best case scenario for him would be re-signing with the Colts and finishing his career where he started it 13 years ago, which in today's league is almost as impressive as any receiving record Harrison has.

Let's look at how other top NFL wide receivers have ended their careers. Harrison is second on the all-time receptions list, so let's look at the top 15:

Rank Player Catches Years
1. Jerry Rice 1,549 1985-2004
2. Marvin Harrison 1,102 1996-2008
3. Cris Carter 1,101 1987-2002
4. Tim Brown 1,094 1988-2004
5. Isaac Bruce 1,003 1994-2008
6. Terrell Owens 951 1996-2008
7. Andre Reed 951 1985-2000
8. Art Monk 940 1980-1995
9. Tony Gonzalez 916 1997-2008
10. Keenan McCardell 883 1992-2007
11. Torry Holt 869 1999-2008
12. Jimmy Smith 862 1992-2005
13. Irving Fryar 851 1984-2000
14. Rod Smith 849 1995-2006
15. Randy Moss 843 1998-2008
Active players are in bold

It's worth noting that only four have played their entire career with one team -- Smith, who is retired, and Harrison, Holt and Gonzalez, who are all active. Of the top 50 reception leaders (including ties, the number is slightly higher), only 13 have played their entire career with one team.

My point? How did these greats finish their careers? Of the nine who aren't still active, seven signed with their final team while in their late 30s. Only one (Jerry Rice) posted significant success, and one (Irving Fryar) was moderately successful. Simply put, Harrison is historically likely to sign with another team this year and catch fewer than 30 passes before retiring.

Jerry Rice, as usual, is a statistical anomaly. After leaving San Francisco at the age of 38, he had three productive years with Oakland, making one Pro Bowl, before his swansong season with Seattle.

Cris Carter left Minnesota at the age of 36, and caught eight passes for Miami.

Tim Brown left Oakland at the age of 38, and caught 24 passes for Tampa Bay.

Andre Reed left Buffalo at the age of 35, and caught 10 passes for Washington.

Art Monk left Washington at the age of 36, and caught 46 passes in a full season with the New York Jets before a six-catch affair with Philadelphia.

Keenan McCardell was traded several times at the end of his career, but after San Diego didn't want him anymore at the age of 36, he had a 22-catch last gasp with Washington.

Jimmy Smith retired with Jacksonville, the only team for which he ever caught a pass.

Irving Fryar played well for three teams, and after leaving Philadelphia at the age of 36, he caught 67 passes in two seasons for Washington.

Rod Smith played for the Broncos his entire career.