2010 playoff watch

I attempted this last year and gave up after a few weeks. I'll try to avoid that problem this year by simplifying my job. This will be a running thread of the weekly playoff picture. It's pure chaos after Week 1 because of the vast number of tiebreakers needed. That's why teams like the Patriots and Packers aren't yet in the playoffs despite season-opening wins.

The teams are listed in order of seedings, and I'm providing the link to the relevant tiebreaker information. It should be interesting to see how fluid (or not) the postseason berths are throughout the year.
* Teams that wouldn't have made the playoffs the previous week

Week 1
AFC: Dolphins (1-0), Chiefs (1-0), Texans (1-0), Ravens (1-0), Titans (1-0), Jaguars (1-0)
NFC: Seahawks (1-0), Bears (1-0), Saints (1-0), Redskins (1-0), Cardinals (1-0), Giants (1-0)

Week 2
AFC: *Steelers (2-0), Dolphins (2-0), Chiefs (2-0), Texans (2-0), *Chargers (1-1), *Jets (1-1)
NFC: Bears (2-0), *Buccaneers (2-0), Seahawks (2-0), Redskins (2-0), *Packers (2-0), Saints (2-0)

Why your NFL picks are wrong

Ask the average NFL fan what teams will make the playoffs and they will rattle off last year's participants. Ask the average NFL analyst, and you will likely get the same response. 

Even professionals like to play it safe during preseason predictions by selecting almost exactly what happened last year. It's a way to minimize risk because the potential reward is medicore. The Steelers were a popular pick to make the Super Bowl last season after winning the title in 2008. Pittsburgh didn't even make the playoffs, but who can be faulted for assuming they would be good? Anybody that picked the Bengals to make the playoffs following a 4-11-1 season was laughed at. 

Thankfully, there are some commentators who are also "enlightened." Mike Florio of profootballtalk.com decries the trend to pick the same playoff teams and Bill Simmons of espn.com (justifiably) bucks convention and only picks six playoff teams to repeat.  

Here are two legitimate trends you should follow when making NFL predictions. 

1. There have been at least five new playoff teams and three new division winners every season since 2003, the year after the NFL split into eight divisions of four teams. And this is understating the trend -- there have been 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 5, 8 new playoff teams (6.428 average) and 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 3, 5 new division winners (3.571 average) since 2003.  

And these aren't all 8-8 teams that win two more games -- at least one team every season made the playoffs after finishing with five wins or fewer the previous year. Need the proof?  

2009: Bengals, 4-11-1 to 11-5
2008: Dolphins, 1-15 to 11-5; Ravens, 5-11 to 11-5; Falcons, 4-12 to 11-5
2007: Buccaneers, 4-12 to 9-7; Redskins, 5-11 to 9-7
2006: Jets, 4-12 to 10-6; Saints, 3-13 to 10-6
2005: Bears, 5-11 to 11-5; Buccaneers 5-11 to 11-5
2004: Chargers, 4-12 to 12-4; Falcons 5-11 to 11-5
2003: Cowboys, 5-11 to 10-6  

I plan on doing more research on common threads between these teams, but the most basic is a new quarterback (or one returning from a season lost to injury) and/or new coach. That's why I picked the 5-11 Raiders (huge upgrade from JaMarcus Russell to Jason Campbell) and 4-12 Redskins (Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb are wily veterans) to make the playoffs.  

2. During that same timeframe, at least two of the four conference championship teams -- 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4 since 2003 -- didn't make it that far the previous season.  

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the season. Playoff teams are in bold.  

AFC East: Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Bills
AFC North: Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Browns
AFC South: Colts, Texans, Titans, Jaguars
AFC West: Raiders, Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos
NFC East: Cowboys, Redskins, Giants, Eagles
NFC North: Packers, Bears, Vikings, Lions
NFC South: Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Buccaneers
NFC West: 49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams 

AFC Championship: Dolphins over Colts
NFC Championship: Packers over 49ers
Super Bowl: Packers over Dolphins

Sudden death's slow death?

My blog's name took a minor blow today when the NFL voted 28-4 to tweak the overtime rules for postseason games. ProFootballTalk.com has a good synopsis of the change, but basically, the team that receives the opening kickoff in overtime cannot win with a field goal on its first drive.

I think the change is unnecessary for many reasons, and I expect the new rule to create mostly unforeseen consequences. That's because the probability of a playoff game ending on a first-possession field goal is already extremely low.

Let's take a look at the numbers. There have been 460 NFL postseason games. Twenty-seven ended in overtime since the league introduced sudden death in 1941. Five ended on the first possession of overtime. Three ended on first-possession field goals. The first two were 23- and 26-yard kicks attempted after driving the length of the field. In almost 70 years, the NFL's new rule would have strongly affected one game (!) -- there is little coincidence it was last year's NFC Championship, when New Orleans won on a 40-yard field goal.

Three out of 460 postseason games (0.65 percent) were won on a first-possession field goal. And for all we know, even these games might have ended with the same score under the new rule -- if the losing team failed to score on its ensuing possession. Overreaction because of the recency effect, anyone?

Too be fair, all three of the postseason games retroactively "affected" by this new rule happened within the last decade. There were three overtime playoff games in the first 25 years, eight in the next 25 years, and 16 in the most recent 19 years. It's pretty easy to explain that trend, though, because the number of playoff games per year has increased from one to three to five to nine to 11.

NFL owners will likely vote in May about extending the new rule to the regular season (which is not expected to pass), and I hope they are not waiting to observe how it tangibly works in the postseason -- that could be a while.

An annual exercise in futility

At the beginning of last postseason, I picked the Carolina Panthers to beat the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl. Neither made it that far, and I only correctly predicted one of the four teams (Ravens) that faced off in the conference championship games.

So who should you gamble against this year?

It's been a tougher exercise than I imagined. It's fairly common knowledge that it's unlikely for the Super Bowl to be composed of Nos. 1 and 2 seeds. In the last four seasons, at least two teams with bye weeks lost their first game. But, this year's top seeds have been all but dismissed by the national media by fading down the stretch in the regular season.

Like last year, I'll update this post with the actual results from the games as they happen.

AFC Wild-Card

Cincinnati over New York New York 24, Cincinnati 14

New England over Baltimore Baltimore 33, New England 14

AFC Divisional

San Diego over New England New York 17, San Diego 14

Indianapolis over Cincinnati Indianapolis 20, Baltimore 3

AFC Championship

Indianapolis over San Diego Indianapolis 30, New York 17

NFC Wild-Card

Philadelphia over Dallas Dallas 34, Philadelphia 14

Green Bay over Arizona Arizona 51, Green Bay 45 (OT)

NFC Divisional

Green Bay over Minnesota Minnesota 34, Dallas 3

New Orleans over Philadelphia New Orleans 45, Arizona 14

NFC Championship

Green Bay over New Orleans New Orleans 31, Minnesota 28

Super Bowl

Indianapolis over Green Bay New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17

Playoff predictors?

I haven't done the research yet to see if these records might provide any insight into what will happen in the playoffs, but it's still worth looking at how each playoff team did against other playoff teams throughout the regular season.

Every team has at least one loss to a playoff team, and only Philadelphia doesn't have at least one win. Baltimore has by far had the most interesting season -- it's only 1-6 against playoff teams, but those six losses were by an average of only six points each.

New Orleans Saints, 3-1

Beat Philadelphia 48-22

Beat New York Jets 24-10

Beat New England 38-17

Lost to Dallas 24-17

Minnesota Vikings, 4-1

Beat Green Bay 30-23

Beat Baltimore 33-31

Beat Green Bay 38-26

Lost to Arizona 30-17

Beat Cincinnati 30-10

Dallas Cowboys, 3-2

Beat Philadelphia 20-16

Lost to Green Bay 17-7

Lost to San Diego 20-17

Beat New Orleans 24-17

Beat Philadelphia 24-0

Arizona Cardinals, 1-2

Lost to Indianapolis 31-10

Beat Minnesota 30-17

Lost to Green Bay 33-7

Green Bay Packers, 3-3

Lost to Cincinnati 31-24

Lost to Minnesota 30-23

Lost to Minnesota 38-26

Beat Dallas 17-7

Beat Baltimore 27-14

Beat Arizona 33-7

Philadelphia Eagles, 0-4

Lost to New Orleans 48-22

Lost to Dallas 20-16

Lost to San Diego 31-23

Lost to Dallas 24-0

Indianapolis Colts, 3-1

Beat Arizona 31-10

Beat New England 35-34

Beat Baltimore 17-15

Lost to New York Jets 29-15

San Diego Chargers, 3-1

Lost to Baltimore 31-26

Beat Philadelphia 31-23

Beat Dallas 20-17

Beat Cincinnati 27-24

New England Patriots, 2-3

Lost to New York Jets 16-9

Beat Baltimore 27-21

Lost to Indianapolis 35-34

Beat New York Jets 31-14

Lost to New Orleans 38-17

Cincinnati Bengals, 3-3

Beat Green Bay 31-24

Beat Baltimore 17-14

Beat Baltimore 17-7

Lost to Minnesota 30-10

Lost to San Diego 27-24

Lost to New York Jets 37-0

New York Jets, 3-2

Beat New England 16-9

Lost to New Orleans 24-10

Lost to New England 31-14

Beat Indianapolis 29-15

Beat Cincinnati 37-0

Baltimore Ravens, 1-6

Beat San Diego 31-26

Lost to New England 27-21

Lost to Cincinnati 17-14

Lost to Minnesota 33-31

Lost to Cincinnati 17-7

Lost to Indianapolis 17-15

Lost to Green Bay 27-14

Winning it all requires winning streak

Update: The New Orleans Saints, owners of a 13-game winning streak in the regular season, won the Super Bowl, and kept this simple predictor a perfect 44-for-44. The Indianapolis Colts, who lost the Super Bowl, had a 14-game winning streak in the regular season.

My first substantive post when I began this blog was about how playoff teams that didn't compile at least a four-game winning streak during the regular season would find it difficult -- historically it's never happened -- to do so during the postseason.


To make a long story short, every Super Bowl winner has had at least a four-game winning streak during the regular season. Yes, five wild-card teams have won the Super Bowl -- but four of them had winning streaks of six or more games, and the other had two four-game streaks.


That means we can safely assume the Lombardi Trophy won't be given to New England, New York Jets, Baltimore or Arizona. Each would have to win four consecutive playoff games against top contenders, something they weren't able to do against run-of-the-mill competition.


Let's take a quick look at the longest winning streaks of the playoff teams:


AFC
Indianapolis: 14
San Diego: 11*
New England: 3 (twice)
Cincinnati: 4
New York Jets: 3 (twice)
Baltimore: 3


NFC
New Orleans: 13
Minnesota: 6 (also won 4 straight)
Philadelphia: 6
Arizona: 3 (twice)
Green Bay: 5
Dallas: 4
*Active streak