Sunday, January 18, 2009

Live-blogging the NFC Championship

Correction: Kurt Warner has actually had three games with perfect regular season passer ratings -- I missed his 2000 performance on first glance. Peyton Manning holds the record with four, and Ben Roethlisberger also has three.

Hello to the rare RSS feeds out there that get this blog's posts. I'll be updating throughout the day as I watch the NFC and AFC conference championships, two of the few games I will get to watch all season because of my work schedule. The Cardinals host the Eagles, with kickoff imminent, and the Steelers host the Ravens.

NFC Championship: Cardinals vs. Eagles
Cardinals 0, Eagles 0
First quarter, 10:00

Arizona's first third-down scenario sets the tone, and says everything about the Cardinals offense. Facing a third-and-1, Kurt Warner lines up in a shotgun formation with three wide receivers. Eschewing the run, Larry Fitzgerald catches a short pass on a crossing pattern and picks up 19 yards. Arizona will live, and die, by the pass.

From a similar formation a few plays later, Edgerrin James picks up a first down on a 16-yard draw. That's the plan for the Cardinals, using the pass to set up the run.

Cardinals 7, Eagles 0
First quarter, 9:30

Picture perfect. Fitzgerald scored on another drag route, a similar play from his earlier first down and last week's diving touchdown against the Carolina Panthers. The Cardinals clearly couldn't have asked for a better opening drive: Warner went 4 for 4 and James picked up 33 yards on the ground on four carries.

Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
First quarter, 4:45

Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb, who showed some agility with a 21-yard run on the Eagles' opening drive, has one 100-yard rushing game in 14 postseason starts. Arizona's James, a running back, only has two in 11 postseason games.

Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
First quarter, 2:00

McNabb = bad pass. Aaron Francisco = good tip drill. Francisco = good return. DeSean Jackson = good hustle. Francisco = bad fumble. Jon Runyan = good recovery. Jackson did an excellent job of not giving up after the interception, even running around defenders-turned-blockers in order to sneak back into the play, forcing the fumble.

Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
Second quarter, 13:30

Philadelphia is content picking up one first down at a time, and it's not a bad strategy to run (or short pass) down the clock when you are facing a potentially explosive offense. Arizona was fourth in the NFL in scoring offense in the regular season, averaging 26.7 points per game. Philadelphia, however, wasn't much worse, finishing sixth with an average of 26.0 points per game.

Cardinals 14, Eagles 3
Second quarter, 13:20

Yikes. Arizona obviously didn't want to have Philadelphia stick around, pulling out a trick play that worked to perfection. Unlike Fox announcer Troy Aikman, I agree on the roughing the passer call -- Warner had released the ball several seconds before getting hit. Larry Fitzgerald is definitely making the case that he is the best wide receiver in the league (I would also throw Houston's Andre Johnson into the discussion). Fitzgerald now has nine career games with two touchdown receptions, but the five-year veteran has never had three in one game.

Cardinals 14, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 9:00

Don't completely discount Philadelphia's field goals. They would obviously rather score touchdowns, but putting points of any type on the board keeps their heads in the game, and maintains pressure on Arizona to continue scoring.

Cardinals 21, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 3:00

And there is Fitzgerald's first three-touchdown performance, in one half no less. It is not exaggeration to say that we are witnessing one of the greatest postseasons by a wide receiver in NFL history, and I am anxious to investigate that after the game. The fade to Fitzgerald on first down is a great call because if Warner sees that there isn't anything there, he will just throw the ball too high knowing that he has two (if not three) more downs to work with.

Warner is showing off that quick release that infatuated the nation during his Cinderella rookie season in 1998. Honed within the small confines of the Arena Football League's playing field, his ability to get rid of the ball quickly is a wonderful asset used to expose the holes left by blitzing defenders.

Cardinals 21, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 2:00

That's a tough, tough call for Arizona because it certainly seems like they should have possession of the ball. It's interesting to me that the officials stuck to what they felt was the correct call instead of erring on the side of caution. They ruled that the ball touched a Philadelphia player and then went out of bounds, ending the play and making the apparent recovery nonreviewable. If they had ruled that the ball stayed in bounds, it would have kept the play reviewable, but would force Philadelphia to challenge the call.

The Fox announcers just said that Warner has a perfect passer rating (158.3) in the first half. His career best in the postseason is a 143.0 passer rating in a 49-37 divisional win over the Minnesota Vikings in 2000, a game in which he threw for 391 yards and five touchdowns. Warner had 'perfect" regular-season games in 1999, 2000 and earlier this season. He is ranked fourth in career passer rating, but note that the statistic has been hijacked by the differences in the modern passing game -- 19 of the top 24 players on the list are active.

Cardinals 24, Eagles 6
Halftime

Some quick tidbits: Nobody has ever recorded four receiving touchdowns in a playoff game, and Larry Fitzgerald joins a list of 10 other players who have caught three -- Jerry Rice accomplished the feat three separate times, including twice in the Super Bowl. As previewed in an earlier post, Fitzgerald has also become the fourth receiver with consecutive 100-plus receiving yards in three consecutive playoff games.

The Eagles have not played terribly in the fist half, but it appears the Cardinals have once again been inspired by a raucous crowd not accustomed to the playoffs. Arizona only had nine wins in the regular season, but six of them were at home.

Also, the Eagles score at halftime in McNabb's five conference championship games? 17-10 lead in 2002, 17-10 deficit in 2003, 7-3 deficit in 2004, 14-10 lead in 2005 and 24-6 deficit in 2008. Their only win (so far) came in 2005.

Cardinals 24, Eagles 6
Third quarter, 12:00

Things are spiraling out of control for the Eagles, who wasted a couple of nice receptions and first downs with a fumble by McNabb on a nice cornerback blitz. It's hard to even find something good to say about Philadelphia at this point. Arizona has been utterly dominant with no real mistakes, making anything positive that Philadelphia manages seem drab in comparison.

Cardinals 24, Eagles 13
Third quarter, 4:00

A nice catch by Eagles tight end Brent Celek for Philadelphia's first touchdown. After 26 catches in a 16-game regular season, Celek has 17 catches in three playoff games (he has a team-high eight so far today). Most tight ends serve as security blankets in the passing game, so it says a lot that Celek has almost half of McNabb's completions today.

That being said, this game is now a lot close on the scoreboard than it feels. The Eagles are still very much alive, and the Cardinals would bode well to reinstitute their running game and put together a time-consuming drive in response.

Cardinals 24, Eagles 13
Third quarter, 3:45

That was the worst nightmare for the Cardinals. They went three-and-out, took no time off the clock and provided the Eagles some energy by allowing Warner to get pressured into two incompletions before being sacked on third down. Arizona has negative four yards in the second half, and needs to focus on picking up first downs.

Cardinals 24, Eagles 19
Fourth quarter, 15:00

When was the last time you saw the best offensive player on your team -- Celek, now with nine receptions, 78 yards and two touchdowns -- line up to block for the extra point? It didn't seem to matter, as Akers missed his first extra point of the season. As anyone who has seen Ace Ventura: Pet Detective knows, the fact that the laces were in on the hold certainly didn't help as Akers pulled the ball right.

I support the decision not to go for the two-point conversion because there is still a full quarter to play, and it's only a one-possession game. And let's not ignore the humorous block by Hank Baskett on the Celek touchdown -- he took out two defenders with one push near the goal line.

And, no, that was not Warner's first reception of his career. He caught a pass, presumably from himself, for zero yards in a 2005 game with the Cardinals.

Eagles 25, Cardinals 24
Fourth quarter, 11:00

Wow. Philadelphia has done everything right in the second half, mixing the pass and the run while still taking the occasional shot downfield. It worked that time -- McNabb had so much time after rolling out that the entire offensive line was literally standing still on the opposite side of the field when he threw the ball. Nice concentration by Jackson, a rookie, on the touchdown catch.

It might sound hypocritical, but I do support the decision to go for the two-point conversion after this touchdown because the difference between a two- and three-point lead at this stage is much "greater" than a five- and four-point deficit earlier.

Cardinals 32, Eagles 25
Fourth quarter, 3:00

What a game this has turned out to be, and I'm sure Fox is breathing a sigh of relief after thinking they would be televising a blowout. The Cardinals were content running down the clock and taking the field goal if necessary, but ended up getting a touchdown on a safe screen pass. The two-point conversion is definitely the correct call at this stage in the game -- up by five with less than three minutes remaining.

And, I don't think Arizona should have attempted the fourth-and-1 near midfield earlier in the drive. At the time, there was more than seven minutes remaining in the game, plenty of time for one -- if not two -- defensive stops.

As the Fox graphic showed, Fitzgerald also passed Rice for the most receiving yards in a single postseason on this drive. Without him, it's hard to believe Arizona would be in this position. They would probably still be in the playoffs, because they played in weak division, but he is a legitimate game-changer.

Cardinals 32, Eagles 25
Final

McNabb did a good job trying to pick up a few yards on third down, knowing that they would go for it on fourth, but defensive pressure caused him to throw the ball behind Baskett. On fourth down, Curtis spent more effort trying to get a pass interference flag thrown than actually catching the ball, one of my biggest pet peeves. I am kind of surprised that pass interference wasn't called -- I don't think it necessarily was, but I think officials tend to call it, especially in these situations.

It was a terrible decision on the part of Darnell Dockett, the Cardinal who recovered the fumble on Philadelphia's last-gasp lateral-fest, to not go directly to the ground. I understand that he was excited but it's rude to try to score a last-second touchdown, and most importantly, incredibly stupid. A fumble by him recovered by Philadelphia for a touchdown would go down as possibly the most foolish play in sports history.

But that's nitpicking. Arizona played a better game than Philadelphia (barely) and Warner, not McNabb, drastically increased his Hall of Fame chances. Many more, coherent, thoughts on the NFC Championship at a later date.

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