Playoffs?!? Are you talking about playoffs?!?

Some publications are already producing MVP watch lists, which I think is kind of silly, but whatever. The real problem is that the MVP doesn't ultimately matter! The Super Bowl does, and that's why I will publish the playoff seedings every week as if the regular season had just ended. Just for fun, I'll predict the playoff results using those brackets and the team's current injury situation.

The first few weeks (especially this one) will be somewhat skewed because of tiebreakers (e.g. teams that win division games have a huge advantage). The league's tiebreaking procedures are here. I am including a link to the relevant tiebreakers, but let me know if you wonder why Team X qualified instead of Team Y. As a caveat, I certainly could make mistakes because many of the tiebreakers needed this early in the season are never actually used by the NFL.

AFC Seedings

1. Baltimore Ravens, 1-0 (AFC North champions)
2. San Diego Chargers, 1-0 (AFC West champions)
3. New England Patriots, 1-0 (AFC East champions)
4. Indianapolis Colts, 1-0 (AFC South champions)
5. New York Jets, 1-0 (Wild card)
6. Denver Broncos, 1-0 (Wild card)

AFC Projections

Wild card
Patriots 27, Broncos 10
Denver's fluke Week One win won't be repeated against Brady & Co.
Colts 20, Jets 16
Manning (three NFL MVPs) edges Sanchez (one NFL win) in experience

Division
Ravens 21, Colts 15
Bye week will give revamped Baltimore defense time to settle down
Chargers 34, Patriots 24
Sproles, healthy Tomlinson give New England linebackers trouble

Conference
Ravens 19, Chargers 17
Lewis tackles Rivers for safety with Super Bowl berth on the line

NFC Seedings

1. Seahawks, 1-0 (NFC West champions)
2. Packers, 1-0 (NFC North champions)
3. Giants, 1-0 (NFC East champions)
4. Saints, 1-0 (NFC South champions)
5. Eagles, 1-0 (Wild card)
6. Vikings, 1-0 (Wild card)

NFC Projections

Wild card
Vikings 31, Giants 20
Stout Minnesota defense doesn't let Jacobs, Bradshaw get rolling
Saints 35, Eagles 17
An injured McNabb would play, but not well, as Brees throws four TDs

Division
Vikings 23, Seahawks 14
Peterson runs for 150 yards, 2 TDs as Favre remains a game manager
Packers 31, Saints 30
Crosby exorcises demons with long field goal to win expected shootout

Conference
Packers 21, Vikings 18
Favre rattled in return to Lambeau Field, throws three INTs

Super Bowl
Ravens 23, Packers 14
Dangerous RB trio wears down Packers defense with 200 yards on ground

Week One Observations

The NFL regular season has finally returned, and so have I. Because I work almost every Sunday, I'm not able to watch nearly enough football. This year, I bought NFL Game Rewind from NFL.com, which allows me to watch any game after the fact. And if I watch more football, I'll do more blogging (which isn't hard to do when I've set the standard at none during the past five months).

This week, I was able to watch the Colts-Jaguars and Packers-Bears live, and the Steelers-Titans and Patriots-Bills on delay. I also watched the NFL.com highlights for each of the other games. Here's some of my thoughts (I'm heavily biased toward the Patriots-Bills because I watched that game most recently):

1. Adrian Peterson (the Vikings version, of course) is the best offensive player in the league today. He had five runs of 10+ yards, including this jaw-dropping 64-yard TD. Running backs wear down quickly, especially when they have a lot of carries, so appreciate now what Peterson is doing in his third NFL season.

2. I'm shocked, and extremely thankful, that I haven't heard people clamoring for changes to overtime after the Steelers beat the Titans on an opening-drive field goal in the extra session. I'll assume people are still actually stupid, and simply felt Pittsburgh deserved to win after Hines Ward' heat-of-the-moment fumble in the final minute of regulation.

3. Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio made the wrong decision going for a two-point conversion at the end of the game. Not because the Jaguars missed, and lost 14-12, but because there was too much time remaining. Failing to convert with 5:30 left meant an Indianapolis touchdown would make it a two-score game. And only New England can overcome that deficit so quickly, right?

4. Three of the most athletic plays of the week came from defensive players in the Packers-Bears tilt. Green Bay defensive tackle Johnny Jolly sniffed out a screen pass and made a great diving interception that would make any cornerback jealous. Chicago safety Danieal Manning broke through the line to sack Aaron Rodgers in the end zone, using his strength to prevent a desperation heave. And Green Bay linebacker Brandon Chillar's hurdle of a running back to sack Jay Cutler was a thing of beauty.

5a. For all the furor over tennis players -- yes, tennis players -- swearing on television, I am surprised nobody noted that Wes Welker audibly dropped the f-bomb after dropping the first pass thrown his way. How can he get attention like Serena Williams and Roger Federer when saying naughty things? Lose?

5b. Randy Moss uses his lengthy arms to block with his hands, never putting his body into a defender a la Hines Ward. He also tries to block quickly and get to the next line of defense on running plays. Moss had three first-half catches on six targets and nine second-half catches on 10 targets, tying a career high with 12 receptions. Maybe Tom Brady, who only threw deep once (incomplete to Joey Galloway), just needed to get warmed up in his return from knee surgery.

5c. On Buffalo's second play from scrimmage, Terrell Owens was utterly confused. The Bills are implementing a no-huddle offense this season, and when Trent Edwards changed the play at the line, Owens threw his hands up in what-am-I-supposed-to-do fashion. After the snap, he jogged while watching the play develop, thankful it was a run.

5d. There were two things I never heard in all the coverage of Leodis McKelvin, who became the unwelcome center of attention after fumbling away a fourth-quarter kickoff return and allowing the Patriots to take the late lead. McKelvin fumbled on his previous kickoff return (although the Bills recovered), and actually took a touchback in a similar situation in the first half.

Is the NFL's landscape static or dynamic?

Ten years ago, Peter King of Sports Illustrated moderated a roundtable of seven NFL personnel to discuss the state of the game -- and its future. Would a re-read of the piece provide any insight after a decade's worth of changes? I have included some interesting portions of the 1999 discussion, and some quick thoughts about their current status.

The roundtable, with current position in parentheses, consisted of:
Bill Ford Jr., Detroit Lions vice chairman (same)
Ron Wolf, Green Bay Packers general manager (retired)
Mike Shanahan, Denver Broncos head coach (retired)
David Hill, Fox Sports TV president (same)
Gene Upshaw, NFL Players Association executive director (deceased)
Paul Tagliabue, NFL commissioner (retired)
Cris Carter, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver (retired, TV broadcaster)

Broadcasting

King: Is that on the horizon, Paul?

Tagliabue: Switching from broadcast television to some subscriber kind of television as the primary way of reaching the public? Certainly not. The Super Bowl becomes a national holiday because we have most of the nation interested and ready to watch it. Now does that mean you have to be static with respect to television? Absolutely not.

The NFL Network, which was launched in 2003, has given some fans 24-hour access to the league. There are some unequivocal positives -- like nationally televising the college all-star games, scouting combine and many preseason games -- but being a cable network has raised its share of problems. Eight of the league's games are now shown only on NFL Network, and some cable companies have refused to pay for the channel because it has marginal appeal to their subscribers.

Competitive balance

King: Ron, after seven years, is the salary cap working?

Wolf: If the idea of the salary cap was to bring about that six-letter word that everyone kind of chokes on, parity, yeah, then it's working. Because what has happened with the cap is, if you become good, you can't stay that way. I don't think, though, there is anything wrong with having a dominant team.

In back-to-back seasons we have seen the league's first 16-0 and 0-16 teams. The New England Patriots have won three Super Bowls in four seasons, and the Miami Dolphins have gone from 1-15 to 10-6 in one season. We know it is possible to have long-term success in the salary-cap era (e.g. Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles), but that certain components -- namely, a top quarterback, coach, and player evaluation system -- are key. The league continues to promote parity by rewarding bad teams with prime draft positions and easy schedules, making it much easier to turn things around quickly.

Player behavior

King: Player behavior. Several teams showed interest in Lawrence Phillips, who has been in a lot of trouble. Three Jets get arrested after a bar fight. The Dolphins sign a convicted cocaine trafficker. Anybody concerned?

Tagliabue: [All the reporting about bad behavior] is sort of a media phenomenon that happens when there's not much else to write about. As Cris said earlier, we could do a better job, but we have 2,500 players coming through the NFL every year. Compared to society at large, especially young people, we've got good young men.

Tagliabue may still be right -- that the vast majority of NFL players are law-abiding citizens -- but the high-profile nature of the Michael Vick and Pacman Jones cases has kept current commissioner Roger Goodell busy handing out punishment. The introduction of a personal-conduct policy has been effective in handling situations across the league more equitably. Also, teams may be growing wary of giving large signing bonuses to players whose bad behavior may make them expendable from the locker room (e.g. Plaxico Burress and the New York Giants).

Expanding schedule

King: Finally, what one thing would you do if you were commissioner for a day?

Carter: I would cancel the fifth preseason game. I'd also like to see the regular season have 14 games instead of 16 games.

King: Why?

Carter: Wear and tear on the body. The product would be better in the playoffs. Especially when you get in situations like we're in in Minnesota and Green Bay where we're practicing on artificial turf three days a week, maybe eight, 10 weeks out of the season.

King: Would you be willing to take less money to play 14 games than to play 16?

Carter: Yes, but I know they're not going to reduce the schedule.

Carter's response is interesting in light of the recent discussions about expanding the regular-season schedule from 16 to 17 or 18 games while at the same time reducing the preseason from four to two games. Several players have said they would need to be paid more in order to accept an extra workload (mostly applicable to starters who don't see much preseason action) because of the increased risk of injuries, particularly career-ending ones.

Conclusion

As with all companies, it's important for the NFL not to relax within a competitive marketplace because there are no guarantees that past success will continue. Nothing hurts worse than labor stoppages (with a 1987 NFL strike, 1994 MLB strike, 1998 NBA lockout and 2004 NHL lockout, it's football's turn again) because fans come back slowly. That's what makes the league's current negotiations regarding the collective-bargaining agreement very important.