Hope for the NFL's downtrodden

Fred Jackson and the Buffalo Bills were 4-12 last season, but aren't out of the playoff race.

I'm not making my season predictions yet, but it's worth following up on last year's post about three legitimate trends prognosticators need to begin recognizing. Although my specific picks were bad, was I vindicated?

At least five new playoff teams and three new division winners

True. The Steelers, Chiefs, Bears, Falcons and Seahawks were new division winners.

I respect Sports Illustrated's Peter King, and he had the foresight to predict the Packers and Steelers to make Super Bowl XLV last preseason. But he only picked three new playoff teams this year — Chargers, Lions and Rams — and there certainly will be more turnover. For what it's worth, King foresees a Falcons-Chargers title game this year.

A team makes the playoffs after finishing with five wins or fewer the previous year

True. I picked the two wrong teams — Redskins and Raiders, although Oakland did finish 8-8 — but the Chiefs improved from 4-12 to 10-6 and the Seahawks improved from 5-11 to 7-9. Additionally, the Buccaneers went from 3-13 to 10-6 without making the playoffs and the Rams went from 1-15 to 7-9.

I postulated the simplest reasons a team improves is because of a new quarterback and/or coach, which doesn't explain Kansas City's rise (although Matt Cassel played better in his second year with the team). But Seattle had a new coach (Pete Carroll) and Tampa Bay (Josh Freeman) and St. Louis (Sam Bradford) had new quarterbacks. 

So who are this year's candidates?

Arizona (5-11)
Cleveland (5-11)
Buffalo (4-12)
Cincinnati (4-12)
Denver (4-12)
Carolina (2-14)

I admit it's hard to stomach that one of these teams will make the playoffs, but it's quite simply always the case — the Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV after finishing 4-12 and the Dolphins made the 2009 playoffs after finishing 1-15. The NFL is a parity-driven league and rewards teams with miserable records by giving them an easier schedule.

For what it's worth, Arizona, Cincinnati and Carolina have new quarterbacks and Denver and Cleveland have a new coach this season. Unsurprisingly, King doesn't predict any of these teams will make the postseason.

Two of the four conference championship teams weren't there the year before

True. Although my predictions were wrong again — the Dolphins and 49ers didn't even make the playoffs — the Steelers, Bears and Packers were fresh participants in last season's conference championship games.

At least King doesn't shy away here, picking four new teams — the Chargers, Ravens, Falcons and Saints.