To QBR or not to QBR?

During the NFL lockout, ESPN filled airtime by revealing Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), which the cable giant presumably hopes will overtake passer rating as the comprehensive way to quickly evaluate quarterbacks. But even in this Sabermetrics era, I don't think the metric will resonate with football fans. (That's not to say it won't make inroads with team personnel, although I'm not bullish on that either.)

QBR has too many moving parts, which makes it impossible for the average viewer to calculate. Passer rating isn't popularly understood either, but the formula is accessible and requires only four easily-obtainable statistics — completion percentage, passing yardage, touchdowns and interceptions. QBR requires analysis of every action play (i.e. non-handoff) by a quarterback, which certainly provides value but is too cumbersome for a fan to calculate.

More importantly, however, is that it's unlikely QBR ultimately provides enough of a distinction from passer rating. Take a look at the QBR and passer rating leaders after Week 1 (with two "Monday Night Football" games to play):

QBR (Max = 100)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 91.2
Aaron Rodgers, 91.1
Matthew Stafford, 87.4
Joe Flacco, 79.6
Cam Newton, 75.7
Rex Grossman, 75.0
Drew Brees, 71.6
Matt Schaub, 71.0
Michael Vick, 68.4
Alex Smith, 66.2

Passer Rating (Max = 158.3)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 133.0
Aaron Rodgers, 132.1
Kevin Kolb, 130.0
Matthew Stafford, 118.9
Joe Flacco, 117.6
Drew Brees, 112.5
Rex Grossman, 110.5
Cam Newton, 110.4
Jay Cutler, 107.8
Andy Dalton, 102.4

Seven quarterbacks made both top 10 lists, and even the order is fairly consistent, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Aaron Rodgers topping both metrics. The bottom of the lists isn't too different, either, with Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Cassel in the bottom three alongside Donovan McNabb (passer rating) and Kerry Collins (QBR). There are a few major differences — Mark Sanchez is No. 26 in QBR but No. 15 in passer rating, probably because Sanchez's fourth-quarter interception is weighted heavily by QBR's "Clutch Factor" while all interceptions are equal in passer rating.

What's most important to recognize is that it's obvious what quarterbacks are good without either rating. Anyone watching the season opener knew Rodgers and Drew Brees were having strong performances even if no statistics were available. And if you looked at the raw numbers, it's no surprise that finishing 24-of-37 for 422 yards, two touchdowns and an interception — plus a rushing touchdown — means Cam Newton had an impressive NFL debut.

(As an aside, QBR's biggest strength is that it incorporates rushing statistics — which explains why Michael Vick finished No. 17 overall in passer rating, but comes in No. 9 in QBR. But once again, that's self-evident because anyone who knows Vick rushed for 98 yards instantaneously assigns that additional value.)

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise as the sample size grows, but QBR doesn't hit the sweet spot yet.