2011 AFC predictions

AFC East
Patriots* (13-3), Jets (9-7), Dolphins (6-10), Bills (6-10)
How can the Jets miss the playoffs? New York played in the past two AFC Championship games but relying on 34-year-old wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who returns to the NFL after a two-year prison sentence on gun charges, and aging running back LaDainian Tomlinson will hurt its three-peat chances. The Jets also lost key role players — wide receivers Brad Smith and Jerricho Cotchery and defensive linemen Shaun Ellis and Jason Taylor — in free agency while flirting with cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha.Running back Shonn Greene still needs to show he can shoulder the load behind a capable offensive line, and critics will continue accusing quarterback Mark Sanchez of being a game manager. Cornerback Darrelle Revis remains a superstar, but the Jets' defense may be hampered by an aging linebacker corps — Bryan Thomas (32), Bart Scott (31) and Calvin Pace (30) join David Harris (27).

AFC North
Ravens* (12-4), Steelers* (10-6), Browns (6-10), Bengals (2-14)
How can the Ravens end the Steelers' reign? The Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry is smashmouth football at its finest, with eight close meetings — Pittsburgh by 7, Pittsburgh by 3, Baltimore by 3, Baltimore by 3, Pittsburgh by 3, Pittsburgh by 9, Pittsburgh by 4, Pittsburgh by 3 — in the past three seasons. The Steelers twice eliminated the Ravens in the playoffs during that timespan, but the Pittsburgh defense is aging and Baltimore aggressively added offensive pieces this offseason. Fullback Vonta Leach is a fierce blocker, wide receiver Lee Evans is a deep threat, offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie boasts rare size and running back Ricky Williams will provide important depth. Baltimore isn't a blitz-happy defense anymore,  but it's finished third in points allowed three consecutive seasons and is anchored up the middle by defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, linebacker Ray Lewis and free safety Ed Reed.

AFC South
Texans* (10-6), Colts (8-8), Titans (7-9), Jaguars (5-11)
How can the Texans make their first postseason appearance? Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning's neck injury certainly opens the window of opportunity for Houston, which has watched the Colts win seven of nine potential AFC South titles. But that's not to say the Texans haven't improved — the arrival of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips alone will bolster a defense that allowed 24 or more points in 14 games last season. Former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams is moving from defensive end to linebacker in Phillips' 3-4 scheme, and Houston welcomes rookie defensive end J.J. Watt, rookie linebacker Brooks Reed and unsung cornerback Johnathan Joseph, who left Cincinnati in free agency. And there's no reason to think the deadly quartet of quarterback Matt Schaub, running back Arian Foster, wide receiver Andre Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels will stop pouring on the points.

AFC West 
Chargers* (11-5), Broncos* (10-6), Raiders (7-9), Chiefs (6-10)
How can Denver go from 4-12 to the playoffs? At the risk of beating a dead Bronco, it's not a rare journey. Denver had the league's worst defense last season (in points and yards allowed), but that won't happen again with the return of defensive end Elvis Dumervil, who missed 2010 with a torn pectoral muscle but has 43 career sacks in four seasons, and the addition of rookie linebacker Von Miller, the No. 2 overall draft pick who shined in the preseason. New coach Jon Fox finished at least 7-9 in his first eight seasons with Carolina, including three playoff appearances and a Super Bowl. Quarterback Kyle Orton was on pace to finish fourth in passing yards — behind Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees — if Denver didn't test drive 2010 first-round draft pick Tim Tebow for three games. And don't forget Denver has one of the NFL's best offensive tackles (Ryan Clady) and cornerbacks (Champ Bailey).

AFC playoffs (teams marked by *)
Wild-card round: Chargers beat Broncos, Texans beat Steelers
Divisional round: Patriots beat Texans, Ravens beat Chargers
Conference championship: Patriots beat Ravens