Saturday, January 2, 2010

Winning it all requires winning streak

Update: The New Orleans Saints, owners of a 13-game winning streak in the regular season, won the Super Bowl, and kept this simple predictor a perfect 44-for-44. The Indianapolis Colts, who lost the Super Bowl, had a 14-game winning streak in the regular season.

My first substantive post when I began this blog was about how playoff teams that didn't compile at least a four-game winning streak during the regular season would find it difficult -- historically it's never happened -- to do so during the postseason.


To make a long story short, every Super Bowl winner has had at least a four-game winning streak during the regular season. Yes, five wild-card teams have won the Super Bowl -- but four of them had winning streaks of six or more games, and the other had two four-game streaks.


That means we can safely assume the Lombardi Trophy won't be given to New England, New York Jets, Baltimore or Arizona. Each would have to win four consecutive playoff games against top contenders, something they weren't able to do against run-of-the-mill competition.


Let's take a quick look at the longest winning streaks of the playoff teams:


AFC
Indianapolis: 14
San Diego: 11*
New England: 3 (twice)
Cincinnati: 4
New York Jets: 3 (twice)
Baltimore: 3


NFC
New Orleans: 13
Minnesota: 6 (also won 4 straight)
Philadelphia: 6
Arizona: 3 (twice)
Green Bay: 5
Dallas: 4
*Active streak

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