Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Snow in Buffalo? T.O. still a go

Amid all the hubbub about Terrell Owens being signed by the Buffalo Bills (as a transplanted western New Yorker, I was among those completely blindsided by the news), I found most interesting one online comment -- essentially, "Have fun dropping all those passes in the cold."

Owens, although a Hall-of-Fame caliber talent, is notorious for dropping passes -- according to the Washington Post, he led the NFL with 17 in 2006, tied for third with 10 in 2007 and finished fourth with 10 in 2008.

Because he's nearing the end of his career, nobody expects Owens to put up monster statistics in Buffalo. The assertion got me thinking, however, if it is harder for wide receivers to find success in cold, outdoor environments. And, yes, Buffalo certainly qualifies. It would be possible to do an in-depth study of this phenomenon (or lack thereof), but here's a quick one for simplicity's sake:

Approximately one-third of the 32 NFL franchises could be described as playing their eight home games in cold, outdoor environments. Those 14 unlucky teams? (Minnesota, Detroit, Indianapolis and St. Louis play in domes)

AFC East
Buffalo
New England
New York
AFC North
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Baltimore
AFC West
Denver
Kansas City
NFC East
Philadelphia
New York
Washington
NFC North
Green Bay
Chicago

Granted, only about three or four home games played in November and December should be affected by sub-freezing temperatures and the possibility of snow. But based on my best recollections, significantly less than one-third of the top NFL receivers have played with those franchises.

Of the 60 seasons in which a player has caught 100-plus passes, exactly one-third (20) came in cold-weather environments. None of the top 10 did, however, and eight of those top 10 came with teams that play in domes.

Of the 58 seasons in which a player has recorded 1,400-plus receiving yards, slightly less than one-quarter (14) came with cold-weather teams. None of the top 10 did, and seven of the top 10 came in domes.

Of the 45 seasons in which a player caught 14-plus touchdowns, slightly less than one-third (11) were from cold-weather teams. In this case, though, four of the top 12 came with cold-weather teams, including Randy Moss's record-setting 23-touchdown performance with the New England Patriots.

It looks like T.O. doesn't have too much to worry about, after all. Well, about the weather, at least. For the curious, Owens has one season of 100-plus catches (2002 with San Francisco), two of 1,400-plus yards (2000, 2001 with San Francisco) and four with 14-plus touchdown catches (1998, 2001 with San Francisco; 2004 in cold-weather Philadelphia; 2005 with Dallas).

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