2010 playoff watch

I attempted this last year and gave up after a few weeks. I'll try to avoid that problem this year by simplifying my job. This will be a running thread of the weekly playoff picture. It's pure chaos after Week 1 because of the vast number of tiebreakers needed. That's why teams like the Patriots and Packers aren't yet in the playoffs despite season-opening wins.

The teams are listed in order of seedings, and I'm providing the link to the relevant tiebreaker information. It should be interesting to see how fluid (or not) the postseason berths are throughout the year.
* Teams that wouldn't have made the playoffs the previous week

Week 1
AFC: Dolphins (1-0), Chiefs (1-0), Texans (1-0), Ravens (1-0), Titans (1-0), Jaguars (1-0)
NFC: Seahawks (1-0), Bears (1-0), Saints (1-0), Redskins (1-0), Cardinals (1-0), Giants (1-0)

Week 2
AFC: *Steelers (2-0), Dolphins (2-0), Chiefs (2-0), Texans (2-0), *Chargers (1-1), *Jets (1-1)
NFC: Bears (2-0), *Buccaneers (2-0), Seahawks (2-0), Redskins (2-0), *Packers (2-0), Saints (2-0)

Sudden death's slow death?

My blog's name took a minor blow today when the NFL voted 28-4 to tweak the overtime rules for postseason games. ProFootballTalk.com has a good synopsis of the change, but basically, the team that receives the opening kickoff in overtime cannot win with a field goal on its first drive.

I think the change is unnecessary for many reasons, and I expect the new rule to create mostly unforeseen consequences. That's because the probability of a playoff game ending on a first-possession field goal is already extremely low.

Let's take a look at the numbers. There have been 460 NFL postseason games. Twenty-seven ended in overtime since the league introduced sudden death in 1941. Five ended on the first possession of overtime. Three ended on first-possession field goals. The first two were 23- and 26-yard kicks attempted after driving the length of the field. In almost 70 years, the NFL's new rule would have strongly affected one game (!) -- there is little coincidence it was last year's NFC Championship, when New Orleans won on a 40-yard field goal.

Three out of 460 postseason games (0.65 percent) were won on a first-possession field goal. And for all we know, even these games might have ended with the same score under the new rule -- if the losing team failed to score on its ensuing possession. Overreaction because of the recency effect, anyone?

Too be fair, all three of the postseason games retroactively "affected" by this new rule happened within the last decade. There were three overtime playoff games in the first 25 years, eight in the next 25 years, and 16 in the most recent 19 years. It's pretty easy to explain that trend, though, because the number of playoff games per year has increased from one to three to five to nine to 11.

NFL owners will likely vote in May about extending the new rule to the regular season (which is not expected to pass), and I hope they are not waiting to observe how it tangibly works in the postseason -- that could be a while.

An annual exercise in futility

At the beginning of last postseason, I picked the Carolina Panthers to beat the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl. Neither made it that far, and I only correctly predicted one of the four teams (Ravens) that faced off in the conference championship games.

So who should you gamble against this year?

It's been a tougher exercise than I imagined. It's fairly common knowledge that it's unlikely for the Super Bowl to be composed of Nos. 1 and 2 seeds. In the last four seasons, at least two teams with bye weeks lost their first game. But, this year's top seeds have been all but dismissed by the national media by fading down the stretch in the regular season.

Like last year, I'll update this post with the actual results from the games as they happen.

AFC Wild-Card

Cincinnati over New York New York 24, Cincinnati 14

New England over Baltimore Baltimore 33, New England 14

AFC Divisional

San Diego over New England New York 17, San Diego 14

Indianapolis over Cincinnati Indianapolis 20, Baltimore 3

AFC Championship

Indianapolis over San Diego Indianapolis 30, New York 17

NFC Wild-Card

Philadelphia over Dallas Dallas 34, Philadelphia 14

Green Bay over Arizona Arizona 51, Green Bay 45 (OT)

NFC Divisional

Green Bay over Minnesota Minnesota 34, Dallas 3

New Orleans over Philadelphia New Orleans 45, Arizona 14

NFC Championship

Green Bay over New Orleans New Orleans 31, Minnesota 28

Super Bowl

Indianapolis over Green Bay New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17

Playoff predictors?

I haven't done the research yet to see if these records might provide any insight into what will happen in the playoffs, but it's still worth looking at how each playoff team did against other playoff teams throughout the regular season.

Every team has at least one loss to a playoff team, and only Philadelphia doesn't have at least one win. Baltimore has by far had the most interesting season -- it's only 1-6 against playoff teams, but those six losses were by an average of only six points each.

New Orleans Saints, 3-1

Beat Philadelphia 48-22

Beat New York Jets 24-10

Beat New England 38-17

Lost to Dallas 24-17

Minnesota Vikings, 4-1

Beat Green Bay 30-23

Beat Baltimore 33-31

Beat Green Bay 38-26

Lost to Arizona 30-17

Beat Cincinnati 30-10

Dallas Cowboys, 3-2

Beat Philadelphia 20-16

Lost to Green Bay 17-7

Lost to San Diego 20-17

Beat New Orleans 24-17

Beat Philadelphia 24-0

Arizona Cardinals, 1-2

Lost to Indianapolis 31-10

Beat Minnesota 30-17

Lost to Green Bay 33-7

Green Bay Packers, 3-3

Lost to Cincinnati 31-24

Lost to Minnesota 30-23

Lost to Minnesota 38-26

Beat Dallas 17-7

Beat Baltimore 27-14

Beat Arizona 33-7

Philadelphia Eagles, 0-4

Lost to New Orleans 48-22

Lost to Dallas 20-16

Lost to San Diego 31-23

Lost to Dallas 24-0

Indianapolis Colts, 3-1

Beat Arizona 31-10

Beat New England 35-34

Beat Baltimore 17-15

Lost to New York Jets 29-15

San Diego Chargers, 3-1

Lost to Baltimore 31-26

Beat Philadelphia 31-23

Beat Dallas 20-17

Beat Cincinnati 27-24

New England Patriots, 2-3

Lost to New York Jets 16-9

Beat Baltimore 27-21

Lost to Indianapolis 35-34

Beat New York Jets 31-14

Lost to New Orleans 38-17

Cincinnati Bengals, 3-3

Beat Green Bay 31-24

Beat Baltimore 17-14

Beat Baltimore 17-7

Lost to Minnesota 30-10

Lost to San Diego 27-24

Lost to New York Jets 37-0

New York Jets, 3-2

Beat New England 16-9

Lost to New Orleans 24-10

Lost to New England 31-14

Beat Indianapolis 29-15

Beat Cincinnati 37-0

Baltimore Ravens, 1-6

Beat San Diego 31-26

Lost to New England 27-21

Lost to Cincinnati 17-14

Lost to Minnesota 33-31

Lost to Cincinnati 17-7

Lost to Indianapolis 17-15

Lost to Green Bay 27-14

Winning it all requires winning streak

Update: The New Orleans Saints, owners of a 13-game winning streak in the regular season, won the Super Bowl, and kept this simple predictor a perfect 44-for-44. The Indianapolis Colts, who lost the Super Bowl, had a 14-game winning streak in the regular season.

My first substantive post when I began this blog was about how playoff teams that didn't compile at least a four-game winning streak during the regular season would find it difficult -- historically it's never happened -- to do so during the postseason.


To make a long story short, every Super Bowl winner has had at least a four-game winning streak during the regular season. Yes, five wild-card teams have won the Super Bowl -- but four of them had winning streaks of six or more games, and the other had two four-game streaks.


That means we can safely assume the Lombardi Trophy won't be given to New England, New York Jets, Baltimore or Arizona. Each would have to win four consecutive playoff games against top contenders, something they weren't able to do against run-of-the-mill competition.


Let's take a quick look at the longest winning streaks of the playoff teams:


AFC
Indianapolis: 14
San Diego: 11*
New England: 3 (twice)
Cincinnati: 4
New York Jets: 3 (twice)
Baltimore: 3


NFC
New Orleans: 13
Minnesota: 6 (also won 4 straight)
Philadelphia: 6
Arizona: 3 (twice)
Green Bay: 5
Dallas: 4
*Active streak

Week Three Playoff Picture

The Week Three playoff picture is much easier to figure out now that more teams have losses, and fewer tiebreakers are needed. In the AFC, the Steelers fall out of the playoffs and the Patriots slide in. It's the same six teams in the NFC as last week.

AFC Seedings

1. Jets (3-0)

2. Broncos (3-0)

3. Colts (3-0)

4. Ravens (3-0)

5. Chargers (2-1)

6. Patriots (2-1)

AFC Projections

Wild card

Colts 23, Patriots 13

It might not be fair, but a healthy Manning beats a rusty Brady

Ravens 27, Chargers 21

Putting trust in Norv Turner is a dangerous, risky proposition

Division

Ravens 17, Jets 16

Rex Ryan's old defense is fired up enough to fluster his new team

Colts 23, Broncos 10

Past playoff losses hurt Denver mentally in this one-sided "rivalry"

Conference

Colts 27, Ravens 20

Quiet home crowd helps Manning spread ball around for 300+ yards

NFC Seedings

1. Giants (3-0)

2. Vikings (3-0)

3. Saints (3-0)

4. 49ers (2-1)

5. Packers (2-1)

6. Falcons (2-1)

NFC Projections

Wild card

Falcons 28, Saints 27

Turner helps Atlanta control ball, provides two 1-yard touchdowns

Packers 16, 49ers 10

Absence of Gore too much for overwhelmed 49ers to overcome

Division

Giants 19, Falcons 14

Fast-rising receiving duo of Smith, Manningham provides boost

Vikings 20, Packers 13

Minnesota will pound the ball, and help Favre avoid key mistakes

Conference

Vikings 31, Giants 10

Harvin returns kickoff for TD, Minnesota avenges past playoff defeats

Super Bowl

Colts 17, Vikings 12

With six MVPs on the field, Division III's Garcon makes the big play

(Belated) Week Two Playoff Seedings

Although I figured out the playoff seedings almost immediately after Week Two ended, I completely failed in posting them. Better late than never, right? I didn't do my playoff projections until now, however, so I'll try to erase Week Three from my mind. For the curious, here are Week Two tiebreakers.

AFC Seedings

1. Jets (2-0)

2. Broncos (2-0)

3. Ravens (2-0)

4. Colts (2-0)

5. Steelers (1-1)

6. Chargers (1-1)

AFC Projections

Wild card

Ravens 23, Chargers 14

LT still sidelined, but Baltimore has three-headed rushing attack

Colts 19, Steelers 13

Vinatieri's leg gets another postseason workout with four FGs

Division

Colts 27, Jets 10

Manning has seen every defense in the book; Sanchez hasn't

Ravens 20, Broncos 7

Crowd doesn't appreciate Orton's three-INT performance

Championship

Ravens 21, Colts 18

Flacco spreads his postseason wings with 300 yards passing

NFC Seedings

1. Giants (2-0)

2. 49ers (2-0)

3. Vikings (2-0)

4. Falcons (2-0)

5. Saints (2-0)

6. Packers (1-1)

NFC Projections

Wild card

Saints 41, Falcons 28

Shockey, Gonzalez each score TD as defensive focus is elsewhere

Vikings 27, Packers 17

Peterson could have chance to break 300-yard rushing mark

Division

Saints 27, Giants 20

Manning doesn't have firepower to overcome crucial turnover

Vikings 20, 49ers 10

If Crabtree was playing instead of whining, 49ers would have shot

Conference

Saints 31, Vikings 17

Despite road game, dome is home-sweet-home for Brees

Super Bowl

Saints 31, Ravens 20

New Orleans has too many weapons for Lewis and Co. to cover

Playoffs?!? Are you talking about playoffs?!?

Some publications are already producing MVP watch lists, which I think is kind of silly, but whatever. The real problem is that the MVP doesn't ultimately matter! The Super Bowl does, and that's why I will publish the playoff seedings every week as if the regular season had just ended. Just for fun, I'll predict the playoff results using those brackets and the team's current injury situation.

The first few weeks (especially this one) will be somewhat skewed because of tiebreakers (e.g. teams that win division games have a huge advantage). The league's tiebreaking procedures are here. I am including a link to the relevant tiebreakers, but let me know if you wonder why Team X qualified instead of Team Y. As a caveat, I certainly could make mistakes because many of the tiebreakers needed this early in the season are never actually used by the NFL.

AFC Seedings

1. Baltimore Ravens, 1-0 (AFC North champions)
2. San Diego Chargers, 1-0 (AFC West champions)
3. New England Patriots, 1-0 (AFC East champions)
4. Indianapolis Colts, 1-0 (AFC South champions)
5. New York Jets, 1-0 (Wild card)
6. Denver Broncos, 1-0 (Wild card)

AFC Projections

Wild card
Patriots 27, Broncos 10
Denver's fluke Week One win won't be repeated against Brady & Co.
Colts 20, Jets 16
Manning (three NFL MVPs) edges Sanchez (one NFL win) in experience

Division
Ravens 21, Colts 15
Bye week will give revamped Baltimore defense time to settle down
Chargers 34, Patriots 24
Sproles, healthy Tomlinson give New England linebackers trouble

Conference
Ravens 19, Chargers 17
Lewis tackles Rivers for safety with Super Bowl berth on the line

NFC Seedings

1. Seahawks, 1-0 (NFC West champions)
2. Packers, 1-0 (NFC North champions)
3. Giants, 1-0 (NFC East champions)
4. Saints, 1-0 (NFC South champions)
5. Eagles, 1-0 (Wild card)
6. Vikings, 1-0 (Wild card)

NFC Projections

Wild card
Vikings 31, Giants 20
Stout Minnesota defense doesn't let Jacobs, Bradshaw get rolling
Saints 35, Eagles 17
An injured McNabb would play, but not well, as Brees throws four TDs

Division
Vikings 23, Seahawks 14
Peterson runs for 150 yards, 2 TDs as Favre remains a game manager
Packers 31, Saints 30
Crosby exorcises demons with long field goal to win expected shootout

Conference
Packers 21, Vikings 18
Favre rattled in return to Lambeau Field, throws three INTs

Super Bowl
Ravens 23, Packers 14
Dangerous RB trio wears down Packers defense with 200 yards on ground

Top 20 playoffs for wide receivers

Update: Larry Fitzgerald caught seven passes for 127 yards and two touchdowns in the Cardinals 27-23 loss to the Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII, becoming the only player to record 100-plus receiving yards in four consecutive playoff games. His postseason totals -- 30 receptions, 546 yards and seven touchdowns -- are all NFL records, and enough for me to propel him into first place on this list. If Arizona would have won the Super Bowl, Fitzgerald would likely have been MVP (quarterback Kurt Warner certainly would have been considered) after an incredible fourth-quarter performance in which he gave Arizona its first lead of the game.

Update (4/16/11): I decided to see if any performances from the last two playoffs qualified for my list. Green Bay's Greg Jennings had pretty strong 2010 postseason numbers -- 21 catches, 302 yards, two touchdowns (both in the Super Bowl victory) -- but he had the luxury of four games and I never got the sense his performance was dominant. Minnesota's Sidney Rice (10 catches, 186 yards and four touchdowns in two games) and Indianapolis' Pierre Garcon (21 catches, 251 yards and two touchdowns in three games) both made legitimate arguments in 2009. I may reconsider in the future or expand the list to 25, but I'm not convinced yet. That said, I am going to move Fitzgerald to the top (he was originally No. 2) and I have to actually put Tom Fears (16 catches, 334 yards and three touchdowns in two games in 1950) on the list.

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is having an outstanding postseason -- he has 23 catches for a playoff-record 419 yards and five touchdowns -- with the Super Bowl still to play. He is one of four players (Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Tom Fears) to have three consecutive playoff games with 100-plus receiving yards, and a blog post on NFL.com documents exactly how strong Fitzgerald's start to his playoff career has been.

I thought it would be interesting to compile the other great wide receiver performances in NFL postseason history, so I compiled a completely unscientific top 20 list. I assessed no direct penalty for losing (because wide receivers don't play defense, etc.) although not winning prohibited a deeper postseason run. I rewarded consistency throughout the playoffs, but also weighted any performances in the Super Bowl and conference championships.

21. Wes Welker, New England Patriots, 2007
27 catches, 213 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Welker tied the record for most receptions in a postseason, and became the first to accomplish the feat in three games.

20. Ricky Sanders, Washington Redskins, 1987
15 catches, 285 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Sanders set a Super Bowl record (since passed by Jerry Rice) with 193 receiving yards, scoring twice on nine receptions.

19. Sterling Sharpe, Green Bay Packers, 1993
11 catches, 229 yards, four touchdowns
Two games, lost divisional round
In his only two career playoff games, Sharpe recorded 100-plus yards in each game and scored four of Green Bay's five offensive touchdowns.

18. Michael Irvin, Dallas Cowboys, 1992
18 catches, 288 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Irvin was consistent -- recording six catches for 80-plus yards in each game -- but saved his best performance for last, scoring twice in the Super Bowl.

17. John Stallworth, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1979
12 catches, 259 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Stallworth caught one touchdown in each game, including a 73-yard score in the Steelers' fourth Super Bowl victory of the 1970s.

16. Antonio Freeman, Green Bay Packers, 1997
17 catches, 307 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Freeman picked up steam in each game, culminating in a nine-catch, 126-yard, two-touchdown performance in the Super Bowl.

15. James Lofton, Buffalo Bills, 1990
13 catches, 323 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Lofton caught 12 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns in the two games before the Super Bowl, where he was limited to one 61-yard reception.

14. Isaac Bruce, St. Louis Rams, 1999
13 catches, 316 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Both of Bruce's touchdowns were 70-plus yards, including the game winner with less than three minutes remaining in the Super Bowl.

13. Randy Moss, Minnesota Vikings, 1998
14 catches, 315 yards, three touchdowns
Two games, lost divisional game
Fitzgerald was still a ballboy for the Vikings when Moss caught two touchdowns of 40-plus yards and picked up 188 yards in the divisional loss.

12. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2003
18 catches, 404 yards, three touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl
Smith picked up 298 yards in two games and his 69-yard touchdown catch on the first play of double overtime sent the Panthers to the NFC Championship.

11. Lynn Swann, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1978
13 catches, 274 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
In addition to his seven-reception, 124-yard, one-touchdown performance, Swann made one of the most acrobatic catches in Super Bowl history.

10. Tom Fears, Los Angeles Rams, 1950
16 catches, 334 yards, three touchdowns
Two games, lost NFL championship
Fears scored three consecutive touchdowns (43, 68 and 27 yards) and compiled 198 yards to lift the Rams to the title game.



9. John Stallworth, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1978
14 catches, 278 yards, four touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Stallworth scored in every game, including twice in the Super Bowl, and had a 10-catch, 158-yard performance in the divisional round.

8. Charlie Brown, Washington Redskins, 1983
14 catches, 401 yards, one touchdown
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Brown set the record for most receiving yards in one postseason (he is now fourth all-time), and averaged 28.6 yards per reception.

7. Andre Reed, Buffalo Bills, 1993
19 catches, 313 yards, three touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl
Reed caught three second-half touchdowns in the NFL's best comeback, and his 151 receiving yards in the Super Bowl are the most for any losing player.

6. Anthony Carter, Dallas Cowboys, 1987
23 catches, 391 yards, two touchdowns (1 catch, 1 return)
Three games, lost conference championship
Carter's 227-yard performance in the divisional round set a playoff mark that stood for 11 years, and he added an 87-yard punt return in the wild-card game.

5. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2005
27 catches, 335 yards, five touchdowns (3 catch, 1 rush, 1 return)
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Smith set a playoff record for most catches, recorded a 12-catch, 218-yard receiving performance and became the only player with a receiving, rushing and punt return touchdown in the same postseason.

4. Fred Biletnikoff, Oakland Raiders, 1968
14 catches, 370 yards, four touchdowns
Two games, lost conference championship
Biletnikoff's seven catches for 190 yards and a touchdown in the conference championship was his worst performance of the postseason. He had seven for 180 yards and three touchdowns -- of 24, 44 and 54 yards -- one week prior.

3. Jerry Rice, San Francisco 49ers, 1989
19 catches, 318 yards, five touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Rice is the only player to catch three touchdowns in a Super Bowl (he tied his mark in the 1994 playoffs), catching seven passes for 148 yards. He previously scored twice, including a 73-yard touchdown in the divisional round.

2. Jerry Rice, San Francisco 49ers, 1988
21 catches, 409 yards, six touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Although Fitzgerald broke his postseason yardage record, Rice still has the most receiving touchdowns in a postseason, most receiving yards (215) in a Super Bowl, and is tied for most receptions (11) in a Super Bowl.

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals, 2008 
30 catches, 546 yards, seven touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl

Fitzgerald has set the postseason record for most receiving yards, recorded two games of 150-plus receiving yards and caught three touchdowns in the first half of the NFC Championship to send Arizona to its first Super Bowl.

Nota bene:
- Jerry Rice (Nos. 2 and 3), Steve Smith (Nos. 5 and 11) and John Stallworth (Nos. 9 and 16) are the only wide receivers to make my top 20 list twice.
- NFC teams have a 13 to 7 edge over AFC teams in the number of representatives. The Pittsburgh Steelers are represented three times, while the Green Bay Packers, Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers are all represented twice.
- Sixteen of the 20 players advanced to the Super Bowl -- 8 won, 7 lost and Fitzgerald's Arizona Cardinals face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Feb. 1.

Divisional round, all at once

Update: Posted Donovan McNabb's career record in conference championship games.

We'll go with some quick hits for this Divisional Playoff weekend:

Baltimore 13, Tennessee 10

1. Ray Lewis's helmet-popping hit on Ahmard Hall was a good reminder why Lewis will eventually be in the Hall of Fame. Lewis didn't celebrate, perhaps because Hall still picked up an important first down in terms of field position, but his jarring shot was a poignant image for the leader of the Baltimore Ravens' defense.

Lewis is a two-time Defensive Player of the Year (2000, 2003), six-time first-team All-Pro (I trust journalists' opinions more than fans' and Pro Bowlers only represent their conference), and the 2000 Super Bowl MVP in a season when he carried the Ravens on his back (with help from Jamal Lewis).

2. One of my biggest pet peeves is quarterbacks who call timeouts at inopportune times, only to escape the ire of their misguided coaches.

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco called a timeout to avoid a five-yard penalty for delay of game when facing a third-and-18 in the middle of the first quarter. I don't have exact numbers, but the difference in probability between converting a third-and-18 and a third-and-23 has to be negligible. Timeouts, however, are extremely valuable because they greatly increase the probability of scoring at the end of halftime. (Wow, that would be an extensive research project)

If I was a coach, I would tell my quarterback to always take the delay-of-game penalty unless it a critical juncture of the game (i.e. likely leading directly to points): Only on third or fourth down, or on the edge of field goal range or the end zone. Timeouts should be used liberally on defense, however, because one blown coverage can result in a touchdown.

You can call my complaint void because Flacco threw a 48-yard touchdown to Derrick Mason on the play following the timeout, but we should make our decisions based on probabilities, not post hoc information.

Cardinals 33, Panthers 13

1. If Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald breaks the 100-yard receiving mark in the NFC Championship game, he will join Tom Fears, Jerry Rice and Randy Moss as the only players to post three consecutive playoff games of 100 or more receiving yards.

Fitzgerald caught eight balls for 166 yards, including an impressive diving touchdown, against the Panthers. In his playoff debut against the Falcons, he caught six balls for 101 yards and a touchdown.

2. You can add Carolina's Jake Delhomme to my list of miserable quarterbacking performances in the playoffs. Sports Illustrated's Peter King suggests that considering the circumstances, Delhomme's six-turnover day may have been the worst.

Goat of the Week
Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina. Has any quarterback had a worse playoff game than Delhomme's five-interception, one-lost-fumble disaster Saturday night against Arizona? Unlikely. Brett Favre, in the 2001 playoffs, threw six picks against the Rams, but in that game, Favre was just throwing balls up throughout the second half trying to hit the lottery. Delhomme went 17 of 34 for 205 yards, with one garbage-time touchdown and the five picks, and only one of the turnovers came with the game legitimately out of hand. Here's the amazing thing: You watch all five of those interceptions, and you'll see that every one was thrown into something like double-coverage. "To put into words, I can't," Delhomme said. "I am at a loss for words. I had a hand in six turnovers ... I should get the blame. It's inexcusable."

Eagles 23, Giants 11

1. After missing only three field goals during his Pro-Bowl worthy regular season, New York kicker John Carney missed two against the Eagles in the wind tunnel known as Giants Stadium.

Carney did make three field goals on Sunday, but both of his misses could have swung the momentum of the game because they would have given the Giants the lead. His unfortunate timing following a 35-for-38 performance in the regular season (the best field goal percentage of his 21-year career) reminds me a lot of Gary Anderson's wayward kick in the 1998 playoffs.

Anderson had the first perfect regular season in NFL history, making all 35 field goal attempts and all 59 extra point attempts for the 15-1 Vikings, but missed a 38-yard field goal with two minutes remaining in the NFC Championship game against the Falcons. The Vikings failed to take a two-possession lead, and the Falcons ended up winning in overtime.

Speaking of Anderson, Eagles kicker David Akers broke his record on Sunday by converting his 17th and 18th consecutive field goal attempts in the postseason.

2. I wrote earlier about Donovan McNabb's success in the postseason. Now that he is prepared to start his fifth conference championship game (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008), where does that total rank in NFL history?

Joe Montana has seven appearances, going 4-3 and winning four Super Bowls.
Terry Bradshaw has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning four Super Bowls.
Roger Staubach has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning two Super Bowls.
John Elway has six appearances, going 5-1 and winning two Super Bowls.
Tom Brady has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning three Super Bowls.
Jim Kelly has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning zero Super Bowls.
Ken Stabler has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning one Super Bowl.
Donovan McNabb has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning zero Super Bowls.

Let me know if I missed any quarterback who started in at least five conference championship games. In case you were curious, Steve Young threw passes in six, but only started four and Brett Favre only played in four.

And, other than Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco, the other quarterbacks in the conference championship games do have some experience. It's the third career trip for both Arizona's Kurt Warner and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger.

Steelers 35, Chargers 24

1. Both the CBS announcers and I expected a quick kick from Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in the first quarter once he backed up several more yards out of a shotgun formation. Roethlisberger managed a 29-yard punt that was downed on the 9-yard line, but don't give Steelers coach Mike Tomlin all of the credit for the call.

I would be extremely surprised if Tomlin would have made the same decision if Patriots coach Bill Belichick hadn't pulled out the rarely-used play in New England's season finale. With New England leading 13-0 in the fourth quarter of a game where wind gusts reached 55 miles per hour, quarterback Matt Cassel pulled off a 55-yard quick kick that was downed at the 2-yard line.

What an excellent, and throwback, call.

As an aside, Randall Cunningham punted 20 times for an impressive 44.7 yard average while with the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings. Perhaps most impressively, the quarterback has the fourth-longest punt in NFL history with a 91-yard bomb against the Giants in 1988.

2. Yes, you read it right. San Diego only had possession of the ball for 17 seconds in the third quarter. After an eight-minute touchdown drive to start the second half, Pittsburgh intercepted Philip Rivers on the Chargers' first play from scrimmage. The Steelers' second drive stalled, but they recovered a muffed punt, and continued the ensuing drive into the fourth quarter.

There's really nothing else to say about that. It's ridiculous.

Division among the wild-cards?

Despite having worse records than their opponents, both the San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals won wild-card games last weekend. The Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings each lost wild-card games despite having equal or better records than their opponents.

The common thread? All four teams did have home-field advantage. But according to historical numbers, that doesn't make a significant difference -- their status as a division winner does.

Division winners are 34-18 in wild-card games while home teams in wild-card games that have not involved division winners are only 23-15.

The second figure also carries an interesting caveat because home teams went 11-5 from 1978 to 1989** but only 12-10 from 1990 to 2001. The distinction is odd because in both cases, the wild-card games were held between the fourth and fifth seeds in the conference, although the introduction of free agency in 1993 could be one possible explanation for the sudden parity.

A brief historical review will help unpack the success of division winners in the wild-card round. The wild-card was introduced in 1978, but all three division winners received a bye week during wild-card weekend until 1990, when the postseason field was expanded from 10 to 12 teams.

From 1990 to 2001, four wild-card games were played but only two involved a division winner, because the conferences were aligned into three divisions. Division winners went 19-7 during those 13 seasons. In 2002, the NFL realigned both conferences into four divisions, resulting in two division winners playing in wild-card games. In the seven years since realignment, division winners are 17-11.

Perhaps, however, it's not surprising to see division winners fare well in the wild-card round. Quite simply, their regular season record is typically better than their opponent's.

When division winners have faced a wild-card team with a better regular season record, they are 4-3. When both teams have the same record, division winners are 7-3, and when division winners face a wild-card team with a worse record, they are 23-12.

**I did not include the 1982 strike season because an unusual playoff structure was utilized.

Manning's MVP misery

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, who lost his first playoff game after being named the Associated Press MVP, isn't alone. Eleven of the 54 MVPs went 0-1 in the playoffs. Fourteen have won NFL championships, but none since Kurt Warner did with the St. Louis Rams in 1999.

MVPs, however, have quite an impressive postseason record overall.

If MVPs were their own franchise, they would have the third-best postseason winning percentage in league history. The second-best Packers have a .625 winning percentage (25-15) while the MVPs hold a .651 winning percentage (71-38). Carolina holds the top spot with a 6-3 record (.666), but the 1998 expansion team has a small sample size and will slip if they lose to the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday night.

Nota bene:

- Two MVPs did not reach the postseason. Johnny Unitas led the Baltimore Colts to an 11-1-2 regular season record in 1964 but did not receive an automatic bid to the playoffs because of an 0-1-1 head-to-head record against the Los Angeles Rams, who also finished 11-1-2. O.J. Simpson and the Buffalo Bills finished 9-5 in 1973, losing the AFC East crown to the 12-2 Miami Dolphins and the lone wild-card spot to the 10-4 Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Twenty-two MVPs have made it the Super Bowl in the postseason following their award, but more have lost (12) than won (10). Eight have lost in the conference championship, 10 have lost in divisional round, and three have lost in the wild-card round.
- MVP quarterbacks (.662 winning percentage, 49-25 record, eight NFL titles) fare slightly better than MVP running backs (.555, 15-12, 4 titles). Defensive and special team MVPs -- there has been a defensive tackle, kicker and linebacker selected -- have had the highest rate of success. (.875, 7-1, 2 titles).

Wild-card, round two

As I continue to refine my blog, please let me know if you have any questions or suggestions. And, yes, I have been biased to examining quarterbacks in my post-game analysis because they provide a smaller sample size and arguably more interesting discussion.

Baltimore 27, Miami 9

Quick thought: Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington threw four interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown by Ed Reed, after tossing only seven in the regular season -- and never more than one in a game.

But, it could have been worse -- much, much worse. Four quarterbacks have thrown six interceptions in one playoff game, with three of those performances coming in NFL title games.

- Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre in a 45-17 loss to the St. Louis Rams in 2002 (three returned for TDs)
- Los Angeles Rams quarterback Norm Van Brocklin in a 38-14 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1955 title game (one returned for a TD)
- Detroit Lions quarterback Bobby Layne in a 56-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1954 title game
- New York Giants quarterback Frank Filchock in a 24-14 loss to the Chicago Bears in the 1946 title game

The most notable five-interception performance in playoff history was by Oakland Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon in Super Bowl XXXVII, including three that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers returned for touchdowns in Oakland's 48-21 loss.

Quick tease: Baltimore Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Flacco picked up his first postseason win despite throwing for only 135 yards. The Ravens' championship season in 2000 also contained some sparse offensive numbers, but what actually are the lowest passing yardages for a winning quarterback in a postseason game?

Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 14

Quick thought: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb, who made it to four consecutive NFC Championship games earlier this decade, now has eight playoff victories without a Super Bowl title.

McNabb (8-5 postseason record) joins Hall of Fame quarterbacks Jim Kelly (9-8) and quarterback Dan Marino (8-10) atop this unique -- and tragic -- list. With two more seasons averaging about 3,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, McNabb will have comparable career statistics to Kelly.

But does McNabb have a good chance to be voted into the Hall of Fame?

He's already in some pretty good company for career postseason wins: Joe Montana (16-7), Tom Brady (14-3), Terry Bradshaw (14-5), John Elway (14-7), Brett Favre (12-10), Roger Staubach (11-6), Troy Aikman (11-4) Bart Starr (9-1), Kelly, Jim Plunkett (8-2), Steve Young (8-6) and Marino.

For those keeping score, McNabb currently trails 10 current Hall of Famers and two shoo-ins, Brady and Favre, and can continue extending his win total this season.

Quick tease: The San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals answered a lengthy discussion about whether division champions should receive a home playoff game despite their record by winning on Saturday night. The Vikings couldn't make it three in a row, however, prompting the question of how division champions have historically performed in the first round.

Wild-card, round one

Update: Added kickoff return yardage to Ed Podolak's all-purpose total and complete breakdown for Keith Lincoln's total.

Because I am admittedly making this up as I go along, my plans for postgame analysis are to produce one quick thought -- an interesting fact I can verify quickly -- and one quick tease -- a trend or occurrence that I will blog on thoroughly later in the week after spending more time in research.

Arizona 30, Atlanta 24

Quick thought: Is nine years the longest delay of game in history? It might be for Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who joins Joe Montana as the only Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks to win a playoff game with a different franchise, a feat both accomplished at age 37.

Warner directed the Greatest Show on Turf in his first season a starter, winning the Super Bowl with the St. Louis Rams in 1999 -- almost one decade before this season's career renaissance. Montana won three Super Bowl MVPs (1981, 1984, 1989) with the San Francisco 49ers before taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the AFC Championship game in 1993.

Perhaps tellingly, 10 of the 15 other quarterbacks eligible for such an accomplishment played their entire careers with one team, although that may eventually change for Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning.

Quick tease: Atlanta running back Michael Turner rushed for 1,699 yards this season -- the 28th-highest total in NFL history -- but was held to 42 yards on 18 carries. The lack of postseason production is stark when compared to the results of the other top-50 regular seasons.

San Diego 23, Indianapolis 16 (OT)

Quick thought: If you thought San Diego running back Darren Sproles was all over the field, you were right. In addition to providing the game-winning 22-yard touchdown run in overtime, Sproles' 326 all-purpose yards (105 rushing, 45 receiving, 106 kickoff return, 72 punt return) is the third-highest total in playoff history.

No. 1? Kansas City running back Ed Podolak picked up 350 yards in a 27-24 double overtime loss to Miami in the 1971 AFC Championship. He rushed for 85 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries, recorded 110 yards and one touchdown on eight receptions, and added 155 yards on three kickoff returns.

No. 2? San Diego fullback Keith Lincoln compiled 329 yards in the 1963 AFL Championship, a 52-10 slaughter of the Boston Patriots. He rushed for 206 yards and one touchdown, adding 123 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Quick tease: Peyton Manning is now 3-3 in the playoffs following his MVP seasons (2003, 2004, 2008), making it to only one AFC Championship game. Is that typical postseason production for MVPs, or is it common for Super Bowls to accompany such recognition?

Playoff predictions to laugh at later

Update: I am adding the actual playoff results in italics next to my predictions.

For what it's worth, here are my playoff predictions for this year. I think the Carolina Panthers will beat the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl.

After watching Carolina beat San Diego in the first week of the regular season, I had a hunch that they would go to the Super Bowl, and they haven't done anything to change my mind. They remind me a lot of the 2007 New York Giants, with a team that has several talented running backs, a strong defense and a talented quarterback that can deliver a victory when needed. I think Baltimore is the only defense that can get into Peyton Manning's head, and in the AFC, that's enough to propel them.

AFC Wild-Card
Baltimore over Miami | Baltimore 27, Miami 9
Indianapolis over San Diego | San Diego 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT)

AFC Divisional
Baltimore over Tennessee | Baltimore 13, Tennessee 10
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh 35, San Diego 24

AFC Championship
Baltimore over Indianapolis | Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 14

NFC Wild-Card
Minnesota over Philadelphia | Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 14
Atlanta over Arizona | Arizona 30, Atlanta 24

NFC Divisional
Carolina over Minnesota | Arizona 33, Carolina 13
New York over Atlanta | Philadelphia 23, New York 11

NFC Championship
Carolina over New York | Arizona 32, Philadelphia 25

Super Bowl
Carolina over Baltimore | Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23

Winning streaks

Update: It's worth noting that although the Arizona Cardinals made a valiant effort to prove me wrong, they fell just short of a Super Bowl victory -- and their first four-game winning streak of 2008. Pittsburgh, the Super Bowl winner, recorded a five-game winning streak in the regular season.

In an NFL season, each team has 14 chances to put together a three-game winning streak. If a team can't get it done then, is there any reason to think it can make its last chance count?

In the playoffs, that is what's at stake.

To win the Super Bowl, a team has to put together a three- or four-game winning streak against the toughest competition in the league.

There is no margin of error, and that's why the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals are the most unlikely teams in this year's 16-team playoff field to win the Super Bowl.

Each of the first 42 Super Bowl winners has put together at least a four-game winning streak in the regular season, which was expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1978. The Falcons, Cardinals and Eagles each only managed to reach a three-game winning streak (Philadelphia did it twice).

It's not really surprising two of those teams make the list, because the Eagles (9-6-1) snuck into the playoffs when everything fell their way in the final week of the regular season. The Cardinals (9-7) have barely resembled an NFL franchise since clinching the horrid NFC West in Week 14. And the Cardinals host the Falcons (11-5) on Saturday, so at least one will lose.

Even so, it's worth noting how difficult it is to roll through a postseason after ups and downs in the regular season. Yes, the 2007 New York Giants and 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers each won three road playoff games and the Super Bowl as wild-card teams, but the Giants won six consecutive games in the regular season and the Steelers put together two separate four-game win streaks.

The other three wild-card teams to win Super Bowls -- the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, 1997 Denver Broncos and 1980 Oakland Raiders -- each won at least six straight games in the regular season.

A four-game winning streak is not necessary to qualify for the playoffs. A team can finish 12-4 without compiling one, and several 8-8 teams have found themselves in the posteason. And, you don't automatically win the Super Bowl if you have a successful regular season. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots, who won all 16 regular season games before losing the Super Bowl.

But to win the Super Bowl, you have to string together several victories in the playoffs. It helps to have the experience.

Nota bene:

- For clarity's sake, I didn't count the Eagles' 13-13 tie against the Cincinnatti Bengals as a win, even though ties are not a possible outcome (are you listening, Donovan McNabb?) in postseason games. It didn't factor in, anyway, as the tie was sandwiched between two losses.

- Half the Super Bowl winners had at least a seven-game winning streak, which only the Tennessee Titans (10), Indianapolis Colts (nine) and New York Giants (seven) achieved in 2008.