Correction: Kurt Warner has actually had three games with perfect regular season passer ratings -- I missed his 2000 performance on first glance. Peyton Manning holds the record with four, and Ben Roethlisberger also has three.
Hello to the rare RSS feeds out there that get this blog's posts. I'll be updating throughout the day as I watch the NFC and AFC conference championships, two of the few games I will get to watch all season because of my work schedule. The Cardinals host the Eagles, with kickoff imminent, and the Steelers host the Ravens.
NFC Championship: Cardinals vs. Eagles
Cardinals 0, Eagles 0
First quarter, 10:00
Arizona's first third-down scenario sets the tone, and says everything about the Cardinals offense. Facing a third-and-1, Kurt Warner lines up in a shotgun formation with three wide receivers. Eschewing the run, Larry Fitzgerald catches a short pass on a crossing pattern and picks up 19 yards. Arizona will live, and die, by the pass.
From a similar formation a few plays later, Edgerrin James picks up a first down on a 16-yard draw. That's the plan for the Cardinals, using the pass to set up the run.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 0
First quarter, 9:30
Picture perfect. Fitzgerald scored on another drag route, a similar play from his earlier first down and last week's diving touchdown against the Carolina Panthers. The Cardinals clearly couldn't have asked for a better opening drive: Warner went 4 for 4 and James picked up 33 yards on the ground on four carries.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
First quarter, 4:45
Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb, who showed some agility with a 21-yard run on the Eagles' opening drive, has one 100-yard rushing game in 14 postseason starts. Arizona's James, a running back, only has two in 11 postseason games.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
First quarter, 2:00
McNabb = bad pass. Aaron Francisco = good tip drill. Francisco = good return. DeSean Jackson = good hustle. Francisco = bad fumble. Jon Runyan = good recovery. Jackson did an excellent job of not giving up after the interception, even running around defenders-turned-blockers in order to sneak back into the play, forcing the fumble.
Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
Second quarter, 13:30
Philadelphia is content picking up one first down at a time, and it's not a bad strategy to run (or short pass) down the clock when you are facing a potentially explosive offense. Arizona was fourth in the NFL in scoring offense in the regular season, averaging 26.7 points per game. Philadelphia, however, wasn't much worse, finishing sixth with an average of 26.0 points per game.
Cardinals 14, Eagles 3
Second quarter, 13:20
Yikes. Arizona obviously didn't want to have Philadelphia stick around, pulling out a trick play that worked to perfection. Unlike Fox announcer Troy Aikman, I agree on the roughing the passer call -- Warner had released the ball several seconds before getting hit. Larry Fitzgerald is definitely making the case that he is the best wide receiver in the league (I would also throw Houston's Andre Johnson into the discussion). Fitzgerald now has nine career games with two touchdown receptions, but the five-year veteran has never had three in one game.
Cardinals 14, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 9:00
Don't completely discount Philadelphia's field goals. They would obviously rather score touchdowns, but putting points of any type on the board keeps their heads in the game, and maintains pressure on Arizona to continue scoring.
Cardinals 21, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 3:00
And there is Fitzgerald's first three-touchdown performance, in one half no less. It is not exaggeration to say that we are witnessing one of the greatest postseasons by a wide receiver in NFL history, and I am anxious to investigate that after the game. The fade to Fitzgerald on first down is a great call because if Warner sees that there isn't anything there, he will just throw the ball too high knowing that he has two (if not three) more downs to work with.
Warner is showing off that quick release that infatuated the nation during his Cinderella rookie season in 1998. Honed within the small confines of the Arena Football League's playing field, his ability to get rid of the ball quickly is a wonderful asset used to expose the holes left by blitzing defenders.
Cardinals 21, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 2:00
That's a tough, tough call for Arizona because it certainly seems like they should have possession of the ball. It's interesting to me that the officials stuck to what they felt was the correct call instead of erring on the side of caution. They ruled that the ball touched a Philadelphia player and then went out of bounds, ending the play and making the apparent recovery nonreviewable. If they had ruled that the ball stayed in bounds, it would have kept the play reviewable, but would force Philadelphia to challenge the call.
The Fox announcers just said that Warner has a perfect passer rating (158.3) in the first half. His career best in the postseason is a 143.0 passer rating in a 49-37 divisional win over the Minnesota Vikings in 2000, a game in which he threw for 391 yards and five touchdowns. Warner had 'perfect" regular-season games in 1999, 2000 and earlier this season. He is ranked fourth in career passer rating, but note that the statistic has been hijacked by the differences in the modern passing game -- 19 of the top 24 players on the list are active.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 6
Halftime
Some quick tidbits: Nobody has ever recorded four receiving touchdowns in a playoff game, and Larry Fitzgerald joins a list of 10 other players who have caught three -- Jerry Rice accomplished the feat three separate times, including twice in the Super Bowl. As previewed in an earlier post, Fitzgerald has also become the fourth receiver with consecutive 100-plus receiving yards in three consecutive playoff games.
The Eagles have not played terribly in the fist half, but it appears the Cardinals have once again been inspired by a raucous crowd not accustomed to the playoffs. Arizona only had nine wins in the regular season, but six of them were at home.
Also, the Eagles score at halftime in McNabb's five conference championship games? 17-10 lead in 2002, 17-10 deficit in 2003, 7-3 deficit in 2004, 14-10 lead in 2005 and 24-6 deficit in 2008. Their only win (so far) came in 2005.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 6
Third quarter, 12:00
Things are spiraling out of control for the Eagles, who wasted a couple of nice receptions and first downs with a fumble by McNabb on a nice cornerback blitz. It's hard to even find something good to say about Philadelphia at this point. Arizona has been utterly dominant with no real mistakes, making anything positive that Philadelphia manages seem drab in comparison.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 13
Third quarter, 4:00
A nice catch by Eagles tight end Brent Celek for Philadelphia's first touchdown. After 26 catches in a 16-game regular season, Celek has 17 catches in three playoff games (he has a team-high eight so far today). Most tight ends serve as security blankets in the passing game, so it says a lot that Celek has almost half of McNabb's completions today.
That being said, this game is now a lot close on the scoreboard than it feels. The Eagles are still very much alive, and the Cardinals would bode well to reinstitute their running game and put together a time-consuming drive in response.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 13
Third quarter, 3:45
That was the worst nightmare for the Cardinals. They went three-and-out, took no time off the clock and provided the Eagles some energy by allowing Warner to get pressured into two incompletions before being sacked on third down. Arizona has negative four yards in the second half, and needs to focus on picking up first downs.
Cardinals 24, Eagles 19
Fourth quarter, 15:00
When was the last time you saw the best offensive player on your team -- Celek, now with nine receptions, 78 yards and two touchdowns -- line up to block for the extra point? It didn't seem to matter, as Akers missed his first extra point of the season. As anyone who has seen Ace Ventura: Pet Detective knows, the fact that the laces were in on the hold certainly didn't help as Akers pulled the ball right.
I support the decision not to go for the two-point conversion because there is still a full quarter to play, and it's only a one-possession game. And let's not ignore the humorous block by Hank Baskett on the Celek touchdown -- he took out two defenders with one push near the goal line.
And, no, that was not Warner's first reception of his career. He caught a pass, presumably from himself, for zero yards in a 2005 game with the Cardinals.
Eagles 25, Cardinals 24
Fourth quarter, 11:00
Wow. Philadelphia has done everything right in the second half, mixing the pass and the run while still taking the occasional shot downfield. It worked that time -- McNabb had so much time after rolling out that the entire offensive line was literally standing still on the opposite side of the field when he threw the ball. Nice concentration by Jackson, a rookie, on the touchdown catch.
It might sound hypocritical, but I do support the decision to go for the two-point conversion after this touchdown because the difference between a two- and three-point lead at this stage is much "greater" than a five- and four-point deficit earlier.
Cardinals 32, Eagles 25
Fourth quarter, 3:00
What a game this has turned out to be, and I'm sure Fox is breathing a sigh of relief after thinking they would be televising a blowout. The Cardinals were content running down the clock and taking the field goal if necessary, but ended up getting a touchdown on a safe screen pass. The two-point conversion is definitely the correct call at this stage in the game -- up by five with less than three minutes remaining.
And, I don't think Arizona should have attempted the fourth-and-1 near midfield earlier in the drive. At the time, there was more than seven minutes remaining in the game, plenty of time for one -- if not two -- defensive stops.
As the Fox graphic showed, Fitzgerald also passed Rice for the most receiving yards in a single postseason on this drive. Without him, it's hard to believe Arizona would be in this position. They would probably still be in the playoffs, because they played in weak division, but he is a legitimate game-changer.
Cardinals 32, Eagles 25
Final
McNabb did a good job trying to pick up a few yards on third down, knowing that they would go for it on fourth, but defensive pressure caused him to throw the ball behind Baskett. On fourth down, Curtis spent more effort trying to get a pass interference flag thrown than actually catching the ball, one of my biggest pet peeves. I am kind of surprised that pass interference wasn't called -- I don't think it necessarily was, but I think officials tend to call it, especially in these situations.
It was a terrible decision on the part of Darnell Dockett, the Cardinal who recovered the fumble on Philadelphia's last-gasp lateral-fest, to not go directly to the ground. I understand that he was excited but it's rude to try to score a last-second touchdown, and most importantly, incredibly stupid. A fumble by him recovered by Philadelphia for a touchdown would go down as possibly the most foolish play in sports history.
But that's nitpicking. Arizona played a better game than Philadelphia (barely) and Warner, not McNabb, drastically increased his Hall of Fame chances. Many more, coherent, thoughts on the NFC Championship at a later date.
Showing posts with label Eagles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eagles. Show all posts
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Divisional round, all at once
Update: Posted Donovan McNabb's career record in conference championship games.
We'll go with some quick hits for this Divisional Playoff weekend:
Baltimore 13, Tennessee 10
1. Ray Lewis's helmet-popping hit on Ahmard Hall was a good reminder why Lewis will eventually be in the Hall of Fame. Lewis didn't celebrate, perhaps because Hall still picked up an important first down in terms of field position, but his jarring shot was a poignant image for the leader of the Baltimore Ravens' defense.
Lewis is a two-time Defensive Player of the Year (2000, 2003), six-time first-team All-Pro (I trust journalists' opinions more than fans' and Pro Bowlers only represent their conference), and the 2000 Super Bowl MVP in a season when he carried the Ravens on his back (with help from Jamal Lewis).
2. One of my biggest pet peeves is quarterbacks who call timeouts at inopportune times, only to escape the ire of their misguided coaches.
Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco called a timeout to avoid a five-yard penalty for delay of game when facing a third-and-18 in the middle of the first quarter. I don't have exact numbers, but the difference in probability between converting a third-and-18 and a third-and-23 has to be negligible. Timeouts, however, are extremely valuable because they greatly increase the probability of scoring at the end of halftime. (Wow, that would be an extensive research project)
If I was a coach, I would tell my quarterback to always take the delay-of-game penalty unless it a critical juncture of the game (i.e. likely leading directly to points): Only on third or fourth down, or on the edge of field goal range or the end zone. Timeouts should be used liberally on defense, however, because one blown coverage can result in a touchdown.
You can call my complaint void because Flacco threw a 48-yard touchdown to Derrick Mason on the play following the timeout, but we should make our decisions based on probabilities, not post hoc information.
Cardinals 33, Panthers 13
1. If Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald breaks the 100-yard receiving mark in the NFC Championship game, he will join Tom Fears, Jerry Rice and Randy Moss as the only players to post three consecutive playoff games of 100 or more receiving yards.
Fitzgerald caught eight balls for 166 yards, including an impressive diving touchdown, against the Panthers. In his playoff debut against the Falcons, he caught six balls for 101 yards and a touchdown.
2. You can add Carolina's Jake Delhomme to my list of miserable quarterbacking performances in the playoffs. Sports Illustrated's Peter King suggests that considering the circumstances, Delhomme's six-turnover day may have been the worst.
Eagles 23, Giants 11
1. After missing only three field goals during his Pro-Bowl worthy regular season, New York kicker John Carney missed two against the Eagles in the wind tunnel known as Giants Stadium.
Carney did make three field goals on Sunday, but both of his misses could have swung the momentum of the game because they would have given the Giants the lead. His unfortunate timing following a 35-for-38 performance in the regular season (the best field goal percentage of his 21-year career) reminds me a lot of Gary Anderson's wayward kick in the 1998 playoffs.
Anderson had the first perfect regular season in NFL history, making all 35 field goal attempts and all 59 extra point attempts for the 15-1 Vikings, but missed a 38-yard field goal with two minutes remaining in the NFC Championship game against the Falcons. The Vikings failed to take a two-possession lead, and the Falcons ended up winning in overtime.
Speaking of Anderson, Eagles kicker David Akers broke his record on Sunday by converting his 17th and 18th consecutive field goal attempts in the postseason.
2. I wrote earlier about Donovan McNabb's success in the postseason. Now that he is prepared to start his fifth conference championship game (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008), where does that total rank in NFL history?
Joe Montana has seven appearances, going 4-3 and winning four Super Bowls.
Terry Bradshaw has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning four Super Bowls.
Roger Staubach has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning two Super Bowls.
John Elway has six appearances, going 5-1 and winning two Super Bowls.
Tom Brady has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning three Super Bowls.
Jim Kelly has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning zero Super Bowls.
Ken Stabler has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning one Super Bowl.
Donovan McNabb has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning zero Super Bowls.
Let me know if I missed any quarterback who started in at least five conference championship games. In case you were curious, Steve Young threw passes in six, but only started four and Brett Favre only played in four.
And, other than Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco, the other quarterbacks in the conference championship games do have some experience. It's the third career trip for both Arizona's Kurt Warner and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger.
Steelers 35, Chargers 24
1. Both the CBS announcers and I expected a quick kick from Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in the first quarter once he backed up several more yards out of a shotgun formation. Roethlisberger managed a 29-yard punt that was downed on the 9-yard line, but don't give Steelers coach Mike Tomlin all of the credit for the call.
I would be extremely surprised if Tomlin would have made the same decision if Patriots coach Bill Belichick hadn't pulled out the rarely-used play in New England's season finale. With New England leading 13-0 in the fourth quarter of a game where wind gusts reached 55 miles per hour, quarterback Matt Cassel pulled off a 55-yard quick kick that was downed at the 2-yard line.
What an excellent, and throwback, call.
As an aside, Randall Cunningham punted 20 times for an impressive 44.7 yard average while with the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings. Perhaps most impressively, the quarterback has the fourth-longest punt in NFL history with a 91-yard bomb against the Giants in 1988.
2. Yes, you read it right. San Diego only had possession of the ball for 17 seconds in the third quarter. After an eight-minute touchdown drive to start the second half, Pittsburgh intercepted Philip Rivers on the Chargers' first play from scrimmage. The Steelers' second drive stalled, but they recovered a muffed punt, and continued the ensuing drive into the fourth quarter.
There's really nothing else to say about that. It's ridiculous.
We'll go with some quick hits for this Divisional Playoff weekend:
Baltimore 13, Tennessee 10
1. Ray Lewis's helmet-popping hit on Ahmard Hall was a good reminder why Lewis will eventually be in the Hall of Fame. Lewis didn't celebrate, perhaps because Hall still picked up an important first down in terms of field position, but his jarring shot was a poignant image for the leader of the Baltimore Ravens' defense.
Lewis is a two-time Defensive Player of the Year (2000, 2003), six-time first-team All-Pro (I trust journalists' opinions more than fans' and Pro Bowlers only represent their conference), and the 2000 Super Bowl MVP in a season when he carried the Ravens on his back (with help from Jamal Lewis).
2. One of my biggest pet peeves is quarterbacks who call timeouts at inopportune times, only to escape the ire of their misguided coaches.
Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco called a timeout to avoid a five-yard penalty for delay of game when facing a third-and-18 in the middle of the first quarter. I don't have exact numbers, but the difference in probability between converting a third-and-18 and a third-and-23 has to be negligible. Timeouts, however, are extremely valuable because they greatly increase the probability of scoring at the end of halftime. (Wow, that would be an extensive research project)
If I was a coach, I would tell my quarterback to always take the delay-of-game penalty unless it a critical juncture of the game (i.e. likely leading directly to points): Only on third or fourth down, or on the edge of field goal range or the end zone. Timeouts should be used liberally on defense, however, because one blown coverage can result in a touchdown.
You can call my complaint void because Flacco threw a 48-yard touchdown to Derrick Mason on the play following the timeout, but we should make our decisions based on probabilities, not post hoc information.
Cardinals 33, Panthers 13
1. If Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald breaks the 100-yard receiving mark in the NFC Championship game, he will join Tom Fears, Jerry Rice and Randy Moss as the only players to post three consecutive playoff games of 100 or more receiving yards.
Fitzgerald caught eight balls for 166 yards, including an impressive diving touchdown, against the Panthers. In his playoff debut against the Falcons, he caught six balls for 101 yards and a touchdown.
2. You can add Carolina's Jake Delhomme to my list of miserable quarterbacking performances in the playoffs. Sports Illustrated's Peter King suggests that considering the circumstances, Delhomme's six-turnover day may have been the worst.
Goat of the Week
Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina. Has any quarterback had a worse playoff game than Delhomme's five-interception, one-lost-fumble disaster Saturday night against Arizona? Unlikely. Brett Favre, in the 2001 playoffs, threw six picks against the Rams, but in that game, Favre was just throwing balls up throughout the second half trying to hit the lottery. Delhomme went 17 of 34 for 205 yards, with one garbage-time touchdown and the five picks, and only one of the turnovers came with the game legitimately out of hand. Here's the amazing thing: You watch all five of those interceptions, and you'll see that every one was thrown into something like double-coverage. "To put into words, I can't," Delhomme said. "I am at a loss for words. I had a hand in six turnovers ... I should get the blame. It's inexcusable."
Eagles 23, Giants 11
1. After missing only three field goals during his Pro-Bowl worthy regular season, New York kicker John Carney missed two against the Eagles in the wind tunnel known as Giants Stadium.
Carney did make three field goals on Sunday, but both of his misses could have swung the momentum of the game because they would have given the Giants the lead. His unfortunate timing following a 35-for-38 performance in the regular season (the best field goal percentage of his 21-year career) reminds me a lot of Gary Anderson's wayward kick in the 1998 playoffs.
Anderson had the first perfect regular season in NFL history, making all 35 field goal attempts and all 59 extra point attempts for the 15-1 Vikings, but missed a 38-yard field goal with two minutes remaining in the NFC Championship game against the Falcons. The Vikings failed to take a two-possession lead, and the Falcons ended up winning in overtime.
Speaking of Anderson, Eagles kicker David Akers broke his record on Sunday by converting his 17th and 18th consecutive field goal attempts in the postseason.
2. I wrote earlier about Donovan McNabb's success in the postseason. Now that he is prepared to start his fifth conference championship game (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008), where does that total rank in NFL history?
Joe Montana has seven appearances, going 4-3 and winning four Super Bowls.
Terry Bradshaw has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning four Super Bowls.
Roger Staubach has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning two Super Bowls.
John Elway has six appearances, going 5-1 and winning two Super Bowls.
Tom Brady has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning three Super Bowls.
Jim Kelly has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning zero Super Bowls.
Ken Stabler has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning one Super Bowl.
Donovan McNabb has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning zero Super Bowls.
Let me know if I missed any quarterback who started in at least five conference championship games. In case you were curious, Steve Young threw passes in six, but only started four and Brett Favre only played in four.
And, other than Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco, the other quarterbacks in the conference championship games do have some experience. It's the third career trip for both Arizona's Kurt Warner and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger.
Steelers 35, Chargers 24
1. Both the CBS announcers and I expected a quick kick from Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in the first quarter once he backed up several more yards out of a shotgun formation. Roethlisberger managed a 29-yard punt that was downed on the 9-yard line, but don't give Steelers coach Mike Tomlin all of the credit for the call.
I would be extremely surprised if Tomlin would have made the same decision if Patriots coach Bill Belichick hadn't pulled out the rarely-used play in New England's season finale. With New England leading 13-0 in the fourth quarter of a game where wind gusts reached 55 miles per hour, quarterback Matt Cassel pulled off a 55-yard quick kick that was downed at the 2-yard line.
What an excellent, and throwback, call.
As an aside, Randall Cunningham punted 20 times for an impressive 44.7 yard average while with the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings. Perhaps most impressively, the quarterback has the fourth-longest punt in NFL history with a 91-yard bomb against the Giants in 1988.
2. Yes, you read it right. San Diego only had possession of the ball for 17 seconds in the third quarter. After an eight-minute touchdown drive to start the second half, Pittsburgh intercepted Philip Rivers on the Chargers' first play from scrimmage. The Steelers' second drive stalled, but they recovered a muffed punt, and continued the ensuing drive into the fourth quarter.
There's really nothing else to say about that. It's ridiculous.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Wild-card, round two
As I continue to refine my blog, please let me know if you have any questions or suggestions. And, yes, I have been biased to examining quarterbacks in my post-game analysis because they provide a smaller sample size and arguably more interesting discussion.
Baltimore 27, Miami 9
Quick thought: Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington threw four interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown by Ed Reed, after tossing only seven in the regular season -- and never more than one in a game.
But, it could have been worse -- much, much worse. Four quarterbacks have thrown six interceptions in one playoff game, with three of those performances coming in NFL title games.
- Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre in a 45-17 loss to the St. Louis Rams in 2002 (three returned for TDs)
- Los Angeles Rams quarterback Norm Van Brocklin in a 38-14 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1955 title game (one returned for a TD)
- Detroit Lions quarterback Bobby Layne in a 56-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1954 title game
- New York Giants quarterback Frank Filchock in a 24-14 loss to the Chicago Bears in the 1946 title game
The most notable five-interception performance in playoff history was by Oakland Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon in Super Bowl XXXVII, including three that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers returned for touchdowns in Oakland's 48-21 loss.
Quick tease: Baltimore Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Flacco picked up his first postseason win despite throwing for only 135 yards. The Ravens' championship season in 2000 also contained some sparse offensive numbers, but what actually are the lowest passing yardages for a winning quarterback in a postseason game?
Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 14
Quick thought: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb, who made it to four consecutive NFC Championship games earlier this decade, now has eight playoff victories without a Super Bowl title.
McNabb (8-5 postseason record) joins Hall of Fame quarterbacks Jim Kelly (9-8) and quarterback Dan Marino (8-10) atop this unique -- and tragic -- list. With two more seasons averaging about 3,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, McNabb will have comparable career statistics to Kelly.
But does McNabb have a good chance to be voted into the Hall of Fame?
He's already in some pretty good company for career postseason wins: Joe Montana (16-7), Tom Brady (14-3), Terry Bradshaw (14-5), John Elway (14-7), Brett Favre (12-10), Roger Staubach (11-6), Troy Aikman (11-4) Bart Starr (9-1), Kelly, Jim Plunkett (8-2), Steve Young (8-6) and Marino.
For those keeping score, McNabb currently trails 10 current Hall of Famers and two shoo-ins, Brady and Favre, and can continue extending his win total this season.
Quick tease: The San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals answered a lengthy discussion about whether division champions should receive a home playoff game despite their record by winning on Saturday night. The Vikings couldn't make it three in a row, however, prompting the question of how division champions have historically performed in the first round.
Baltimore 27, Miami 9
Quick thought: Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington threw four interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown by Ed Reed, after tossing only seven in the regular season -- and never more than one in a game.
But, it could have been worse -- much, much worse. Four quarterbacks have thrown six interceptions in one playoff game, with three of those performances coming in NFL title games.
- Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre in a 45-17 loss to the St. Louis Rams in 2002 (three returned for TDs)
- Los Angeles Rams quarterback Norm Van Brocklin in a 38-14 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1955 title game (one returned for a TD)
- Detroit Lions quarterback Bobby Layne in a 56-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1954 title game
- New York Giants quarterback Frank Filchock in a 24-14 loss to the Chicago Bears in the 1946 title game
The most notable five-interception performance in playoff history was by Oakland Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon in Super Bowl XXXVII, including three that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers returned for touchdowns in Oakland's 48-21 loss.
Quick tease: Baltimore Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Flacco picked up his first postseason win despite throwing for only 135 yards. The Ravens' championship season in 2000 also contained some sparse offensive numbers, but what actually are the lowest passing yardages for a winning quarterback in a postseason game?
Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 14
Quick thought: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb, who made it to four consecutive NFC Championship games earlier this decade, now has eight playoff victories without a Super Bowl title.
McNabb (8-5 postseason record) joins Hall of Fame quarterbacks Jim Kelly (9-8) and quarterback Dan Marino (8-10) atop this unique -- and tragic -- list. With two more seasons averaging about 3,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, McNabb will have comparable career statistics to Kelly.
But does McNabb have a good chance to be voted into the Hall of Fame?
He's already in some pretty good company for career postseason wins: Joe Montana (16-7), Tom Brady (14-3), Terry Bradshaw (14-5), John Elway (14-7), Brett Favre (12-10), Roger Staubach (11-6), Troy Aikman (11-4) Bart Starr (9-1), Kelly, Jim Plunkett (8-2), Steve Young (8-6) and Marino.
For those keeping score, McNabb currently trails 10 current Hall of Famers and two shoo-ins, Brady and Favre, and can continue extending his win total this season.
Quick tease: The San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals answered a lengthy discussion about whether division champions should receive a home playoff game despite their record by winning on Saturday night. The Vikings couldn't make it three in a row, however, prompting the question of how division champions have historically performed in the first round.
Friday, January 2, 2009
Winning streaks
Update: It's worth noting that although the Arizona Cardinals made a valiant effort to prove me wrong, they fell just short of a Super Bowl victory -- and their first four-game winning streak of 2008. Pittsburgh, the Super Bowl winner, recorded a five-game winning streak in the regular season.
In an NFL season, each team has 14 chances to put together a three-game winning streak. If a team can't get it done then, is there any reason to think it can make its last chance count?
In the playoffs, that is what's at stake.
To win the Super Bowl, a team has to put together a three- or four-game winning streak against the toughest competition in the league.
There is no margin of error, and that's why the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals are the most unlikely teams in this year's 16-team playoff field to win the Super Bowl.
Each of the first 42 Super Bowl winners has put together at least a four-game winning streak in the regular season, which was expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1978. The Falcons, Cardinals and Eagles each only managed to reach a three-game winning streak (Philadelphia did it twice).
It's not really surprising two of those teams make the list, because the Eagles (9-6-1) snuck into the playoffs when everything fell their way in the final week of the regular season. The Cardinals (9-7) have barely resembled an NFL franchise since clinching the horrid NFC West in Week 14. And the Cardinals host the Falcons (11-5) on Saturday, so at least one will lose.
Even so, it's worth noting how difficult it is to roll through a postseason after ups and downs in the regular season. Yes, the 2007 New York Giants and 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers each won three road playoff games and the Super Bowl as wild-card teams, but the Giants won six consecutive games in the regular season and the Steelers put together two separate four-game win streaks.
The other three wild-card teams to win Super Bowls -- the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, 1997 Denver Broncos and 1980 Oakland Raiders -- each won at least six straight games in the regular season.
A four-game winning streak is not necessary to qualify for the playoffs. A team can finish 12-4 without compiling one, and several 8-8 teams have found themselves in the posteason. And, you don't automatically win the Super Bowl if you have a successful regular season. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots, who won all 16 regular season games before losing the Super Bowl.
But to win the Super Bowl, you have to string together several victories in the playoffs. It helps to have the experience.
Nota bene:
- For clarity's sake, I didn't count the Eagles' 13-13 tie against the Cincinnatti Bengals as a win, even though ties are not a possible outcome (are you listening, Donovan McNabb?) in postseason games. It didn't factor in, anyway, as the tie was sandwiched between two losses.
- Half the Super Bowl winners had at least a seven-game winning streak, which only the Tennessee Titans (10), Indianapolis Colts (nine) and New York Giants (seven) achieved in 2008.
In an NFL season, each team has 14 chances to put together a three-game winning streak. If a team can't get it done then, is there any reason to think it can make its last chance count?
In the playoffs, that is what's at stake.
To win the Super Bowl, a team has to put together a three- or four-game winning streak against the toughest competition in the league.
There is no margin of error, and that's why the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals are the most unlikely teams in this year's 16-team playoff field to win the Super Bowl.
Each of the first 42 Super Bowl winners has put together at least a four-game winning streak in the regular season, which was expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1978. The Falcons, Cardinals and Eagles each only managed to reach a three-game winning streak (Philadelphia did it twice).
It's not really surprising two of those teams make the list, because the Eagles (9-6-1) snuck into the playoffs when everything fell their way in the final week of the regular season. The Cardinals (9-7) have barely resembled an NFL franchise since clinching the horrid NFC West in Week 14. And the Cardinals host the Falcons (11-5) on Saturday, so at least one will lose.
Even so, it's worth noting how difficult it is to roll through a postseason after ups and downs in the regular season. Yes, the 2007 New York Giants and 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers each won three road playoff games and the Super Bowl as wild-card teams, but the Giants won six consecutive games in the regular season and the Steelers put together two separate four-game win streaks.
The other three wild-card teams to win Super Bowls -- the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, 1997 Denver Broncos and 1980 Oakland Raiders -- each won at least six straight games in the regular season.
A four-game winning streak is not necessary to qualify for the playoffs. A team can finish 12-4 without compiling one, and several 8-8 teams have found themselves in the posteason. And, you don't automatically win the Super Bowl if you have a successful regular season. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots, who won all 16 regular season games before losing the Super Bowl.
But to win the Super Bowl, you have to string together several victories in the playoffs. It helps to have the experience.
Nota bene:
- For clarity's sake, I didn't count the Eagles' 13-13 tie against the Cincinnatti Bengals as a win, even though ties are not a possible outcome (are you listening, Donovan McNabb?) in postseason games. It didn't factor in, anyway, as the tie was sandwiched between two losses.
- Half the Super Bowl winners had at least a seven-game winning streak, which only the Tennessee Titans (10), Indianapolis Colts (nine) and New York Giants (seven) achieved in 2008.
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