Michael Turner's performance -- or lack thereof -- in Saturday's NFC wild-card game between the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals was quite surprising on the surface.
Turner, who rushed for 1,699 yards and a franchise-record 17 touchdowns in the regular season, finished with only 42 rushing yards on 18 carries in the Falcons' 30-24 loss. He did score a 7-yard rushing touchdown in the second quarter, but his yardage tied a season-worst total.
When compared to the other top 45 rushing seasons in NFL history -- quantified as a 1,600-yard season for the sake of argument -- Turner's struggles particularly stand out. Only five of those 45 running backs compiled fewer yards in their postseason opener.
Be wary, however, of assigning too much blame to Turner for the Falcons' loss.
The heralded statistic that Atlanta went 8-0 in the regular season when Turner ran for 100-plus yards is a common, but misleading, figure. The circular reasoning only shows that teams are likely to win when they are leading in the fourth quarter -- as a result, they run the ball to drain the clock -- and are likely to lose when they are trailing in the fourth quarter -- in an attempt to catch up quickly, they pass the ball.
Case in point: Turner carried the ball seven times in the first quarter, eight times in the second, three times in the third, and none in the fourth. Although the Falcons led 17-14 at halftime, a fumbled exchange between quarterback Matt Ryan and Turner on the second play of the second half resulted in a defensive touchdown for Arizona, who never trailed again.
Nota bene:
- Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, who picked up 1,760 rushing yards in the regular season, rushed for 83 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in Sunday's 26-14 loss to Philadelphia. He only carried the ball two times in the fourth quarter, which the Vikings entered trailing 16-14.
- The best playoff-opening performance following a season of 1,600-plus rushing yards? Terrell Davis picked up 199 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in Denver's 38-3 win over Miami after rushing for 2,008 yards in 1998. The worst? Barry Sanders finished with negative 1 yard on 13 carries in Detroit's 16-12 loss to Green Bay Packers after rushing for 1,883 yards in 1994.
- Fourteen of the 46 highest rushing seasons in league history did not even result in playoff berths. Of the remaining 32 players, 18 won their respective playoff openers. In those games, running backs who finished with 100-plus yards only went 6-7, and players who finished with sub-50 yardage totals finished 2-6.
Showing posts with label Falcons. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Falcons. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Wild-card, round one
Update: Added kickoff return yardage to Ed Podolak's all-purpose total and complete breakdown for Keith Lincoln's total.
Because I am admittedly making this up as I go along, my plans for postgame analysis are to produce one quick thought -- an interesting fact I can verify quickly -- and one quick tease -- a trend or occurrence that I will blog on thoroughly later in the week after spending more time in research.
Arizona 30, Atlanta 24
Quick thought: Is nine years the longest delay of game in history? It might be for Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who joins Joe Montana as the only Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks to win a playoff game with a different franchise, a feat both accomplished at age 37.
Warner directed the Greatest Show on Turf in his first season a starter, winning the Super Bowl with the St. Louis Rams in 1999 -- almost one decade before this season's career renaissance. Montana won three Super Bowl MVPs (1981, 1984, 1989) with the San Francisco 49ers before taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the AFC Championship game in 1993.
Perhaps tellingly, 10 of the 15 other quarterbacks eligible for such an accomplishment played their entire careers with one team, although that may eventually change for Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning.
Quick tease: Atlanta running back Michael Turner rushed for 1,699 yards this season -- the 28th-highest total in NFL history -- but was held to 42 yards on 18 carries. The lack of postseason production is stark when compared to the results of the other top-50 regular seasons.
San Diego 23, Indianapolis 16 (OT)
Quick thought: If you thought San Diego running back Darren Sproles was all over the field, you were right. In addition to providing the game-winning 22-yard touchdown run in overtime, Sproles' 326 all-purpose yards (105 rushing, 45 receiving, 106 kickoff return, 72 punt return) is the third-highest total in playoff history.
No. 1? Kansas City running back Ed Podolak picked up 350 yards in a 27-24 double overtime loss to Miami in the 1971 AFC Championship. He rushed for 85 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries, recorded 110 yards and one touchdown on eight receptions, and added 155 yards on three kickoff returns.
No. 2? San Diego fullback Keith Lincoln compiled 329 yards in the 1963 AFL Championship, a 52-10 slaughter of the Boston Patriots. He rushed for 206 yards and one touchdown, adding 123 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Quick tease: Peyton Manning is now 3-3 in the playoffs following his MVP seasons (2003, 2004, 2008), making it to only one AFC Championship game. Is that typical postseason production for MVPs, or is it common for Super Bowls to accompany such recognition?
Because I am admittedly making this up as I go along, my plans for postgame analysis are to produce one quick thought -- an interesting fact I can verify quickly -- and one quick tease -- a trend or occurrence that I will blog on thoroughly later in the week after spending more time in research.
Arizona 30, Atlanta 24
Quick thought: Is nine years the longest delay of game in history? It might be for Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who joins Joe Montana as the only Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks to win a playoff game with a different franchise, a feat both accomplished at age 37.
Warner directed the Greatest Show on Turf in his first season a starter, winning the Super Bowl with the St. Louis Rams in 1999 -- almost one decade before this season's career renaissance. Montana won three Super Bowl MVPs (1981, 1984, 1989) with the San Francisco 49ers before taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the AFC Championship game in 1993.
Perhaps tellingly, 10 of the 15 other quarterbacks eligible for such an accomplishment played their entire careers with one team, although that may eventually change for Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning.
Quick tease: Atlanta running back Michael Turner rushed for 1,699 yards this season -- the 28th-highest total in NFL history -- but was held to 42 yards on 18 carries. The lack of postseason production is stark when compared to the results of the other top-50 regular seasons.
San Diego 23, Indianapolis 16 (OT)
Quick thought: If you thought San Diego running back Darren Sproles was all over the field, you were right. In addition to providing the game-winning 22-yard touchdown run in overtime, Sproles' 326 all-purpose yards (105 rushing, 45 receiving, 106 kickoff return, 72 punt return) is the third-highest total in playoff history.
No. 1? Kansas City running back Ed Podolak picked up 350 yards in a 27-24 double overtime loss to Miami in the 1971 AFC Championship. He rushed for 85 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries, recorded 110 yards and one touchdown on eight receptions, and added 155 yards on three kickoff returns.
No. 2? San Diego fullback Keith Lincoln compiled 329 yards in the 1963 AFL Championship, a 52-10 slaughter of the Boston Patriots. He rushed for 206 yards and one touchdown, adding 123 receiving yards and one touchdown.
Quick tease: Peyton Manning is now 3-3 in the playoffs following his MVP seasons (2003, 2004, 2008), making it to only one AFC Championship game. Is that typical postseason production for MVPs, or is it common for Super Bowls to accompany such recognition?
Friday, January 2, 2009
Winning streaks
Update: It's worth noting that although the Arizona Cardinals made a valiant effort to prove me wrong, they fell just short of a Super Bowl victory -- and their first four-game winning streak of 2008. Pittsburgh, the Super Bowl winner, recorded a five-game winning streak in the regular season.
In an NFL season, each team has 14 chances to put together a three-game winning streak. If a team can't get it done then, is there any reason to think it can make its last chance count?
In the playoffs, that is what's at stake.
To win the Super Bowl, a team has to put together a three- or four-game winning streak against the toughest competition in the league.
There is no margin of error, and that's why the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals are the most unlikely teams in this year's 16-team playoff field to win the Super Bowl.
Each of the first 42 Super Bowl winners has put together at least a four-game winning streak in the regular season, which was expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1978. The Falcons, Cardinals and Eagles each only managed to reach a three-game winning streak (Philadelphia did it twice).
It's not really surprising two of those teams make the list, because the Eagles (9-6-1) snuck into the playoffs when everything fell their way in the final week of the regular season. The Cardinals (9-7) have barely resembled an NFL franchise since clinching the horrid NFC West in Week 14. And the Cardinals host the Falcons (11-5) on Saturday, so at least one will lose.
Even so, it's worth noting how difficult it is to roll through a postseason after ups and downs in the regular season. Yes, the 2007 New York Giants and 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers each won three road playoff games and the Super Bowl as wild-card teams, but the Giants won six consecutive games in the regular season and the Steelers put together two separate four-game win streaks.
The other three wild-card teams to win Super Bowls -- the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, 1997 Denver Broncos and 1980 Oakland Raiders -- each won at least six straight games in the regular season.
A four-game winning streak is not necessary to qualify for the playoffs. A team can finish 12-4 without compiling one, and several 8-8 teams have found themselves in the posteason. And, you don't automatically win the Super Bowl if you have a successful regular season. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots, who won all 16 regular season games before losing the Super Bowl.
But to win the Super Bowl, you have to string together several victories in the playoffs. It helps to have the experience.
Nota bene:
- For clarity's sake, I didn't count the Eagles' 13-13 tie against the Cincinnatti Bengals as a win, even though ties are not a possible outcome (are you listening, Donovan McNabb?) in postseason games. It didn't factor in, anyway, as the tie was sandwiched between two losses.
- Half the Super Bowl winners had at least a seven-game winning streak, which only the Tennessee Titans (10), Indianapolis Colts (nine) and New York Giants (seven) achieved in 2008.
In an NFL season, each team has 14 chances to put together a three-game winning streak. If a team can't get it done then, is there any reason to think it can make its last chance count?
In the playoffs, that is what's at stake.
To win the Super Bowl, a team has to put together a three- or four-game winning streak against the toughest competition in the league.
There is no margin of error, and that's why the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals are the most unlikely teams in this year's 16-team playoff field to win the Super Bowl.
Each of the first 42 Super Bowl winners has put together at least a four-game winning streak in the regular season, which was expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1978. The Falcons, Cardinals and Eagles each only managed to reach a three-game winning streak (Philadelphia did it twice).
It's not really surprising two of those teams make the list, because the Eagles (9-6-1) snuck into the playoffs when everything fell their way in the final week of the regular season. The Cardinals (9-7) have barely resembled an NFL franchise since clinching the horrid NFC West in Week 14. And the Cardinals host the Falcons (11-5) on Saturday, so at least one will lose.
Even so, it's worth noting how difficult it is to roll through a postseason after ups and downs in the regular season. Yes, the 2007 New York Giants and 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers each won three road playoff games and the Super Bowl as wild-card teams, but the Giants won six consecutive games in the regular season and the Steelers put together two separate four-game win streaks.
The other three wild-card teams to win Super Bowls -- the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, 1997 Denver Broncos and 1980 Oakland Raiders -- each won at least six straight games in the regular season.
A four-game winning streak is not necessary to qualify for the playoffs. A team can finish 12-4 without compiling one, and several 8-8 teams have found themselves in the posteason. And, you don't automatically win the Super Bowl if you have a successful regular season. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots, who won all 16 regular season games before losing the Super Bowl.
But to win the Super Bowl, you have to string together several victories in the playoffs. It helps to have the experience.
Nota bene:
- For clarity's sake, I didn't count the Eagles' 13-13 tie against the Cincinnatti Bengals as a win, even though ties are not a possible outcome (are you listening, Donovan McNabb?) in postseason games. It didn't factor in, anyway, as the tie was sandwiched between two losses.
- Half the Super Bowl winners had at least a seven-game winning streak, which only the Tennessee Titans (10), Indianapolis Colts (nine) and New York Giants (seven) achieved in 2008.
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