Thursday, November 12, 2009

Team of the 2000s?

With the 2009 season halfway complete, it's a little premature to discuss the team of the decade. That doesn't stop the New York Times' excellent Fifth Down blog from posing the question. Or me from answering it.

When football fans think of the dominant teams of the 1960s (Green Bay Packers, 5 titles), 1970s (Steelers, 4), 1980s (San Francisco 49ers, 4) and 1990s (Dallas Cowboys, 3), a team instantly comes to mind.

This decade makes us stop and think. The NYT headline, and all of the comments, contain the argument to the New England Patriots (3 titles), Pittsburgh Steelers (2) and Indianapolis Colts (1). If the Patriots win this year's Super Bowl, it won't even be a debate. If the Steelers or Colts win, it gets tricky.

In this thought exercise, we demand both quantity and quality. Sorry, NFC.

We clearly value sustained success. Nobody makes a case for the New York Giants, who have more Super Bowl appearances (2) and as many titles (1) as the Colts. The reason? The Giants have four non-winning seasons this decade.

We clearly value the pinnacle of success. Nobody makes a case for the Philadelphia Eagles, who have as many conference championship appearances (5) as the Patriots, and more than the Steelers (4) and Colts (2). The reason? The Eagles haven't won any Super Bowls this decade.

At this point, I lean toward the Patriots, who notably have a 2-0 record against the Steelers and a 2-1 record against the Colts in the playoffs this decade. It certainly doesn't hurt to have an undefeated regular season on your resume.

Nota bene: The Patriots (16-0 in 2007), Steelers (15-1 in 2004) and Colts (14-2 in 2005) did not win the Super Bowl in their "best" regular seasons.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Week Three Playoff Picture

The Week Three playoff picture is much easier to figure out now that more teams have losses, and fewer tiebreakers are needed. In the AFC, the Steelers fall out of the playoffs and the Patriots slide in. It's the same six teams in the NFC as last week.

AFC Seedings
1. Jets (3-0)
2. Broncos (3-0)
3. Colts (3-0)
4. Ravens (3-0)
5. Chargers (2-1)
6. Patriots (2-1)

AFC Projections
Wild card
Colts 23, Patriots 13
It might not be fair, but a healthy Manning beats a rusty Brady
Ravens 27, Chargers 21
Putting trust in Norv Turner is a dangerous, risky proposition

Division
Ravens 17, Jets 16
Rex Ryan's old defense is fired up enough to fluster his new team
Colts 23, Broncos 10
Past playoff losses hurt Denver mentally in this one-sided "rivalry"

Conference
Colts 27, Ravens 20
Quiet home crowd helps Manning spread ball around for 300+ yards

NFC Seedings
1. Giants (3-0)
2. Vikings (3-0)
3. Saints (3-0)
4. 49ers (2-1)
5. Packers (2-1)
6. Falcons (2-1)

NFC Projections
Wild card
Falcons 28, Saints 27
Turner helps Atlanta control ball, provides two 1-yard touchdowns
Packers 16, 49ers 10
Absence of Gore too much for overwhelmed 49ers to overcome

Division
Giants 19, Falcons 14
Fast-rising receiving duo of Smith, Manningham provides boost
Vikings 20, Packers 13
Minnesota will pound the ball, and help Favre avoid key mistakes

Conference
Vikings 31, Giants 10
Harvin returns kickoff for TD, Minnesota avenges past playoff defeats

Super Bowl
Colts 17, Vikings 12
With six MVPs on the field, Division III's Garcon makes the big play

(Belated) Week Two Playoff Seedings

Although I figured out the playoff seedings almost immediately after Week Two ended, I completely failed in posting them. Better late than never, right? I didn't do my playoff projections until now, however, so I'll try to erase Week Three from my mind. For the curious, here are Week Two tiebreakers.

AFC Seedings
1. Jets (2-0)
2. Broncos (2-0)
3. Ravens (2-0)
4. Colts (2-0)
5. Steelers (1-1)
6. Chargers (1-1)

AFC Projections
Wild card
Ravens 23, Chargers 14
LT still sidelined, but Baltimore has three-headed rushing attack
Colts 19, Steelers 13
Vinatieri's leg gets another postseason workout with four FGs

Division
Colts 27, Jets 10
Manning has seen every defense in the book; Sanchez hasn't
Ravens 20, Broncos 7
Crowd doesn't appreciate Orton's three-INT performance

Championship
Ravens 21, Colts 18
Flacco spreads his postseason wings with 300 yards passing

NFC Seedings
1. Giants (2-0)
2. 49ers (2-0)
3. Vikings (2-0)
4. Falcons (2-0)
5. Saints (2-0)
6. Packers (1-1)

NFC Projections
Wild card
Saints 41, Falcons 28
Shockey, Gonzalez each score TD as defensive focus is elsewhere
Vikings 27, Packers 17
Peterson could have chance to break 300-yard rushing mark

Division
Saints 27, Giants 20
Manning doesn't have firepower to overcome crucial turnover
Vikings 20, 49ers 10
If Crabtree was playing instead of whining, 49ers would have shot

Conference
Saints 31, Vikings 17
Despite road game, dome is home-sweet-home for Brees

Super Bowl
Saints 31, Ravens 20
New Orleans has too many weapons for Lewis and Co. to cover