AFC East
Patriots* (13-3), Jets (9-7), Dolphins (6-10), Bills (6-10)
How can the Jets miss the playoffs? New York played in the past two AFC Championship games but relying on 34-year-old wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who returns to the NFL after a two-year prison sentence on gun charges, and aging running back LaDainian Tomlinson will hurt its three-peat chances. The Jets also lost key role players — wide receivers Brad Smith and Jerricho
Cotchery and defensive linemen Shaun Ellis and Jason Taylor — in free
agency while flirting with cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha.Running back Shonn Greene still needs to show he can shoulder the load behind a capable offensive line, and critics will continue accusing quarterback Mark Sanchez of being a game manager. Cornerback Darrelle Revis remains a superstar, but the Jets' defense may be hampered by an aging linebacker corps — Bryan Thomas (32), Bart Scott (31) and Calvin Pace (30) join David Harris (27).
AFC North
Ravens* (12-4), Steelers* (10-6), Browns (6-10), Bengals (2-14)
How can the Ravens end the Steelers' reign? The Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry is smashmouth football at its finest, with eight close meetings — Pittsburgh by 7, Pittsburgh by 3, Baltimore by 3, Baltimore by 3,
Pittsburgh by 3, Pittsburgh by 9, Pittsburgh by 4, Pittsburgh by 3 — in the past three seasons. The Steelers twice eliminated the Ravens in the playoffs during that timespan, but the Pittsburgh defense is aging and Baltimore aggressively added offensive pieces this offseason. Fullback Vonta Leach is a fierce blocker, wide receiver Lee Evans is a deep threat, offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie boasts rare size and running back Ricky Williams will provide important depth. Baltimore isn't a blitz-happy defense anymore, but it's finished third in points allowed three consecutive seasons and is anchored up the middle by defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, linebacker Ray Lewis and free safety Ed Reed.
AFC South
Texans* (10-6), Colts (8-8), Titans (7-9), Jaguars (5-11)
How can the Texans make their first postseason appearance? Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning's neck injury certainly opens the window of opportunity for Houston, which has watched the Colts win seven of nine potential AFC South titles. But that's not to say the Texans haven't improved — the arrival of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips alone will bolster a defense that allowed 24 or more points in 14 games last season. Former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams is moving from defensive end to linebacker in Phillips' 3-4 scheme, and Houston welcomes rookie defensive end J.J. Watt, rookie linebacker Brooks Reed and unsung cornerback Johnathan Joseph, who left Cincinnati in free agency. And there's no reason to think the deadly quartet of quarterback Matt Schaub, running back Arian Foster, wide receiver Andre Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels will stop pouring on the points.
AFC West
Chargers* (11-5), Broncos* (10-6), Raiders (7-9), Chiefs (6-10)
How can Denver go from 4-12 to the playoffs? At the risk of beating a dead Bronco, it's not a rare journey. Denver had the league's worst defense last season (in points and yards allowed), but that won't happen again with the return of defensive end Elvis Dumervil, who missed 2010 with a torn pectoral muscle but has 43 career sacks in four seasons, and the addition of rookie linebacker Von Miller, the No. 2 overall draft pick who shined in the preseason. New coach Jon Fox finished at least 7-9 in his first eight seasons with Carolina, including three playoff appearances and a Super Bowl. Quarterback Kyle Orton was on pace to finish fourth in passing yards — behind Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees — if Denver didn't test drive 2010 first-round draft pick Tim Tebow for three games. And don't forget Denver has one of the NFL's best offensive tackles (Ryan Clady) and cornerbacks (Champ Bailey).
AFC playoffs (teams marked by *)
Wild-card round: Chargers beat Broncos, Texans beat Steelers
Divisional round: Patriots beat Texans, Ravens beat Chargers
Conference championship: Patriots beat Ravens
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Hope for the NFL's downtrodden
 |
| Fred Jackson and the Buffalo Bills were 4-12 last season, but aren't out of the playoff race. |
At least five new playoff teams and three new division winners
True. The Steelers, Chiefs, Bears, Falcons and Seahawks were new division winners.
I respect Sports Illustrated's Peter King, and he had the foresight to predict the Packers and Steelers to make Super Bowl XLV last preseason. But he only picked three new playoff teams this year — Chargers, Lions and Rams — and there certainly will be more turnover. For what it's worth, King foresees a Falcons-Chargers title game this year.
A team makes the playoffs after finishing with five wins or fewer the previous year
True. I picked the two wrong teams — Redskins and Raiders, although Oakland did finish 8-8 — but the Chiefs improved from 4-12 to 10-6 and the Seahawks improved from 5-11 to 7-9. Additionally, the Buccaneers went from 3-13 to 10-6 without making the playoffs and the Rams went from 1-15 to 7-9.
I postulated the simplest reasons a team improves is because of a new quarterback and/or coach, which doesn't explain Kansas City's rise (although Matt Cassel played better in his second year with the team). But Seattle had a new coach (Pete Carroll) and Tampa Bay (Josh Freeman) and St. Louis (Sam Bradford) had new quarterbacks.
So who are this year's candidates?
Arizona (5-11)
Cleveland (5-11)
Buffalo (4-12)
Cincinnati (4-12)
Denver (4-12)
Carolina (2-14)
I admit it's hard to stomach that one of these teams will make the playoffs, but it's quite simply always the case — the Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV after finishing 4-12 and the Dolphins made the 2009 playoffs after finishing 1-15. The NFL is a parity-driven league and rewards teams with miserable records by giving them an easier schedule.
For what it's worth, Arizona, Cincinnati and Carolina have new quarterbacks and Denver and Cleveland have a new coach this season. Unsurprisingly, King doesn't predict any of these teams will make the postseason.
Two of the four conference championship teams weren't there the year before
True. Although my predictions were wrong again — the Dolphins and 49ers didn't even make the playoffs — the Steelers, Bears and Packers were fresh participants in last season's conference championship games.
At least King doesn't shy away here, picking four new teams — the Chargers, Ravens, Falcons and Saints.
Performance-enhancing offseason?
Editor's note: I never published this in May 2010 because I was waiting for more response from AP voters, but I regret that decision because I think the piece added to the conversation. Because I don't want it to go completely to waste, here's a post completely irrelevant to the current newscycle. I didn't change anything other than updating a dead link.
Something has been lost amid the hubbub over Brian Cushing's steroid suspension — the Houston Texans linebacker will miss four games after testing positive for hCG, a fertility drug used during steroid cycles — and The Associated Press' unprecedented decision to revote for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.
It's not surprising that almost half of the AP voters (24 of 50) switched their votes. Several commentators are arguing nobody should have voted a second time for Cushing, who won the award again. I'll leave that for others to decide, although I don't fault holding a revote (Cushing tested positive in September, at the beginning of his rookie season) or voting for Cushing twice (in an attempt to avoid revising history).
What's surprising is the breakdown of the revote reveals four voters who changed their minds originally voted for someone other than Cushing. Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was brazen enough to change his vote to Cushing after originally selecting Buffalo Bills safety Jairus Byrd.
David Elfin, formerly of the Washington Times, changed his vote from Byrd to Washington Redskins linebacker Bryan Orapko. Len Shapiro of the Miami Herald changed his vote from Orapko to Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews. Howard Balzer of Fox Sports Net changed his vote from Orapko to St. Louis linebacker James Laurinaitis, who didn't receive any votes in the original tally.
It seems likely Cushing took steroids to improve his on-field performance. But what did these players do during the offseason — there were four months between the votes — to boost their predetermined statistics? I reached out to the aforementioned voters to get some insight into their thought process.
Elfin said he gave his decision more thought, and considered how Orakpo — who played defensive end at Texas — had changed positions since college.
"It was razor-close each time," Elfin wrote in an e-mail. "I just decided that Orakpo had a slightly better season on a good defense."
I don't fault any of the voters for changing their mind. It's a sign of intelligence when people are comfortable enough to form a new opinion after receiving additional information (most blatantly in Cushing's case).
The Pro Football Hall of Fame even embraces the power of persuasion, for better or worse. Each of the semifinalists receives a presentation (often from a voter who covers their former team) arguing for their induction before the 50 voters
Perhaps the moral of the story is that the AP should give voters more time before collecting their ballots for postseason awards. I don't know exactly how the process works, but Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin was named Offensive Rookie of the Year only three days after the regular season ended.
The voters likely have an idea of who they will select by that point, but there's no reason to expedite the process. With two weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, why not give the voters some extra time and announce all the award winners during that dead time?
Something has been lost amid the hubbub over Brian Cushing's steroid suspension — the Houston Texans linebacker will miss four games after testing positive for hCG, a fertility drug used during steroid cycles — and The Associated Press' unprecedented decision to revote for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.
It's not surprising that almost half of the AP voters (24 of 50) switched their votes. Several commentators are arguing nobody should have voted a second time for Cushing, who won the award again. I'll leave that for others to decide, although I don't fault holding a revote (Cushing tested positive in September, at the beginning of his rookie season) or voting for Cushing twice (in an attempt to avoid revising history).
What's surprising is the breakdown of the revote reveals four voters who changed their minds originally voted for someone other than Cushing. Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was brazen enough to change his vote to Cushing after originally selecting Buffalo Bills safety Jairus Byrd.
David Elfin, formerly of the Washington Times, changed his vote from Byrd to Washington Redskins linebacker Bryan Orapko. Len Shapiro of the Miami Herald changed his vote from Orapko to Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews. Howard Balzer of Fox Sports Net changed his vote from Orapko to St. Louis linebacker James Laurinaitis, who didn't receive any votes in the original tally.
It seems likely Cushing took steroids to improve his on-field performance. But what did these players do during the offseason — there were four months between the votes — to boost their predetermined statistics? I reached out to the aforementioned voters to get some insight into their thought process.
Elfin said he gave his decision more thought, and considered how Orakpo — who played defensive end at Texas — had changed positions since college.
"It was razor-close each time," Elfin wrote in an e-mail. "I just decided that Orakpo had a slightly better season on a good defense."
I don't fault any of the voters for changing their mind. It's a sign of intelligence when people are comfortable enough to form a new opinion after receiving additional information (most blatantly in Cushing's case).
The Pro Football Hall of Fame even embraces the power of persuasion, for better or worse. Each of the semifinalists receives a presentation (often from a voter who covers their former team) arguing for their induction before the 50 voters
Perhaps the moral of the story is that the AP should give voters more time before collecting their ballots for postseason awards. I don't know exactly how the process works, but Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin was named Offensive Rookie of the Year only three days after the regular season ended.
The voters likely have an idea of who they will select by that point, but there's no reason to expedite the process. With two weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, why not give the voters some extra time and announce all the award winners during that dead time?
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