Missing the HOF cut

The Pro Football Hall of Fame announced its initial list of 2012 modern-era nominees — the ballot starts with 101 names before getting pared down to 25 semifinalists, 15 finalists and eventually five to seven inductees. (The organization previously announced the two senior nominees — Steelers defensive back James Butler and Lions guard Dick Stanfel — whom will be voted on separately.) Although most news outlets will understandably talk about the first-year nominees, I'm curious to see who wasn't named after making last year's initial list:

Quarterbacks: Ken Anderson, Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams
Running backs: Ottis Anderson
Wide receivers: Herman Moore, Stanley Morgan, Mike Quick, J.T. Smith
Tight ends: Mark Bavaro, Ben Coates, Russ Francis, Brent Jones
Offensive linemen: Bruce Armstrong (center)
Defensive linemen: Al "Bubba" Baker (defensive end), Ray Childress (defensive end/defensive tackle)
Linebackers: Darryl Talley
Defensive backs: Bill Bates (safety), Lester Hayes (cornerback), Frank Minnifield (cornerback), Louis Wright (cornerback)
Special teams: Ray Guy (punter)
Coaches: None
Administrators: Ole Haugsrud (owner), Frank "Bucko" Kilroy (administrator), Bill Nunn (administrator). Joe Robbie (owner), Art Rooney, Jr. (administrator), Carroll Rosenbloom (owner)

My basic criterion for the Hall of Fame is dominance at your position during your era, which is especially relevant as the inflation of passing statistics continues. Evaluating all-pro nominations is extremely helpful, because it's hard to argue you deserve to be recognized among the all-time best if you were rarely recognized as best among your peers. And while most of these candidates are destined for The Hall of the Very Good, a few names do stick out:

Ken Anderson: It looks like Anderson will join the list of one-time MVP quarterbacks not in the Hall of Fame because he hasn't been a finalist since 1998. But although it's difficult to evaluate quarterbacks across eras, he led the NFL in passer rating four times, joining a select group of Steve Young, Roger Staubach and Otto Graham.

Al Baker: Considered one of the NFL's greatest pass-rushers, Baker's numbers suffer because sacks didn't become an official statistic until 1983. By that time, Baker had compiled seasons of 23, 16, 18 and 10 sacks according to unofficial research — his adjusted total of 131.5 career sacks would move him into 11th place. 

Lester Hayes: It's been an interesting path for Hayes, who was a Hall of Fame finalist from 2001 to 2004 before slipping to a semifinalist from 2005 to 2010 and not even making the preliminary list in 2012. It's likely he has been devalued because of his signature contribution: The NFL banned Stickum in 1981, one year after Hayes used it to help snag 18 interceptions (13 in the 12 regular-season games he played and five in four postseason games). 

Ray Guy: I think it's unacceptable that no punters have been inducted — it clearly is a position, and someone must be the best (Reggie Roby is the only punter on the ballot) — but some argue Guy is overrated. That position is infamously held by former Sports Illustrated writer Paul Zimmerman, who touts the unheralded Tommy Davis and explains his distaste for Guy in a 2005 story about punting:

But once again, for the umpteenth time, Ray Guy appears on the Hall of Fame ballot. His lifetime gross average was an unimpressive 42.4. I got a letter on his behalf from some lobbying agency that tried to cover this number by explaining that he made up for it by pinning the enemy deep with coffin-corner kicks. This is a flat out lie written by someone who probably spells football with a pf. Guy's big weakness was that he didn't go for the edges. He was a middle of the end zone punter, although he had the livest leg in the game and when he caught one it really hung.

NFL should hit the books

Falcons cornerback Dunta Robinson, right, was fined $40,000 for his
tackle of Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. (Getty Images)

If I may channel my inner Obama, let me be clear.

Falcons cornerback Dunta Robinson did nothing illegal when he viciously tackled Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin during Sunday night's football game. The NFL doesn't agree, fining Robinson $40,000 for being "a repeat offender of player safety rules" after he was fined $50,000 (later dropped to $25,000 on appeal) for a legitimate penalty against Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson last season.

But therein lies the problem. Although the plays look similar, they're quite distinct. The NFL says you can't penalize a helmet-to-helmet hit against a runner, which is why Steelers linebacker James Harrison didn't get fined (a shock, I know) for his hit against Browns receiver Josh Cribbs last season.

It's admittedly difficult for officials to make the distinction between a defenseless receiver and a runner — at some amorphous point, the former becomes the latter — while watching live game action. But there's a problem when the NFL office doesn't acknowledge the difference after watching slow-motion replays.

When the NFL announced Robinson's most recent fine, the press release tried to clarify the league's position (emphasis theirs).

On the play, Robinson lowered his head and made forcible contact to the head and neck area of Philadelphia wide receiver JEREMY MACLIN.  Although Maclin completed the catch, he was still a defenseless player under the rule because he did not have time to protect himself and had not clearly become a runner.

Maybe they should actually read the "Clarification of Hits on Defenseless Players and Roughing the Passer Fouls" section included in the league's discipline guidelines.

If the receiver/runner is capable of avoiding or warding off the impending contact of an opponent, he is no longer a defeneseless player.

Jackson couldn't even get his second foot down before Robinson's blow, so the fine was legitimate. It's pretty clear, however, that after Maclin caught the ball, he saw Robinson and started to turn his body to avoid a bone-crushing hit. Maclin didn't succeed, of course, but the distinction is meaningless if you have to actually avoid the hit — because then helmet-to-helmet contact wouldn't have happened.

NBC color analyst Chris Collinsworth even says "there was plenty of time to react on this one" — referring to Robinson, of course — and play-by-play announcer Al Michaels adds "at least Maclin knew it was coming, for that's worth." It's worth everything! NFL players can initiate helmet-to-helmet contact against a runner as long as they don't launch off the ground (which Robinson came dangerously close to doing).

But let's look at the bright side. There was a worse perversion of justice last season when the officials penalized the Philadelphia Eagles and incorrectly called a fumble an incomplete pass simply because Colts receiver Austin Collie was visibly concussed from a legal hit.

To QBR or not to QBR?

During the NFL lockout, ESPN filled airtime by revealing Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), which the cable giant presumably hopes will overtake passer rating as the comprehensive way to quickly evaluate quarterbacks. But even in this Sabermetrics era, I don't think the metric will resonate with football fans. (That's not to say it won't make inroads with team personnel, although I'm not bullish on that either.)

QBR has too many moving parts, which makes it impossible for the average viewer to calculate. Passer rating isn't popularly understood either, but the formula is accessible and requires only four easily-obtainable statistics — completion percentage, passing yardage, touchdowns and interceptions. QBR requires analysis of every action play (i.e. non-handoff) by a quarterback, which certainly provides value but is too cumbersome for a fan to calculate.

More importantly, however, is that it's unlikely QBR ultimately provides enough of a distinction from passer rating. Take a look at the QBR and passer rating leaders after Week 1 (with two "Monday Night Football" games to play):

QBR (Max = 100)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 91.2
Aaron Rodgers, 91.1
Matthew Stafford, 87.4
Joe Flacco, 79.6
Cam Newton, 75.7
Rex Grossman, 75.0
Drew Brees, 71.6
Matt Schaub, 71.0
Michael Vick, 68.4
Alex Smith, 66.2

Passer Rating (Max = 158.3)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 133.0
Aaron Rodgers, 132.1
Kevin Kolb, 130.0
Matthew Stafford, 118.9
Joe Flacco, 117.6
Drew Brees, 112.5
Rex Grossman, 110.5
Cam Newton, 110.4
Jay Cutler, 107.8
Andy Dalton, 102.4

Seven quarterbacks made both top 10 lists, and even the order is fairly consistent, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Aaron Rodgers topping both metrics. The bottom of the lists isn't too different, either, with Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Cassel in the bottom three alongside Donovan McNabb (passer rating) and Kerry Collins (QBR). There are a few major differences — Mark Sanchez is No. 26 in QBR but No. 15 in passer rating, probably because Sanchez's fourth-quarter interception is weighted heavily by QBR's "Clutch Factor" while all interceptions are equal in passer rating.

What's most important to recognize is that it's obvious what quarterbacks are good without either rating. Anyone watching the season opener knew Rodgers and Drew Brees were having strong performances even if no statistics were available. And if you looked at the raw numbers, it's no surprise that finishing 24-of-37 for 422 yards, two touchdowns and an interception — plus a rushing touchdown — means Cam Newton had an impressive NFL debut.

(As an aside, QBR's biggest strength is that it incorporates rushing statistics — which explains why Michael Vick finished No. 17 overall in passer rating, but comes in No. 9 in QBR. But once again, that's self-evident because anyone who knows Vick rushed for 98 yards instantaneously assigns that additional value.)

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise as the sample size grows, but QBR doesn't hit the sweet spot yet.