Sudden Depth

Missing the HOF cut

2011-09-29T02:01:00.000-04:00

The Pro Football Hall of Fame announced its initial list of 2012 modern-era nominees — the ballot starts with 101 names before getting pared down to 25 semifinalists, 15 finalists and eventually five to seven inductees. (The organization previously announced the two senior nominees — Steelers defensive back James Butler and Lions guard Dick Stanfel — whom will be voted on separately.) Although most news outlets will understandably talk about the first-year nominees, I'm curious to see who wasn't named after making last year's initial list:

Quarterbacks: Ken Anderson, Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams
Running backs: Ottis Anderson
Wide receivers: Herman Moore, Stanley Morgan, Mike Quick, J.T. Smith
Tight ends: Mark Bavaro, Ben Coates, Russ Francis, Brent Jones
Offensive linemen: Bruce Armstrong (center)
Defensive linemen: Al "Bubba" Baker (defensive end), Ray Childress (defensive end/defensive tackle)
Linebackers: Darryl Talley
Defensive backs: Bill Bates (safety), Lester Hayes (cornerback), Frank Minnifield (cornerback), Louis Wright (cornerback)
Special teams: Ray Guy (punter)
Coaches: None
Administrators: Ole Haugsrud (owner), Frank "Bucko" Kilroy (administrator), Bill Nunn (administrator). Joe Robbie (owner), Art Rooney, Jr. (administrator), Carroll Rosenbloom (owner)

My basic criterion for the Hall of Fame is dominance at your position during your era, which is especially relevant as the inflation of passing statistics continues. Evaluating all-pro nominations is extremely helpful, because it's hard to argue you deserve to be recognized among the all-time best if you were rarely recognized as best among your peers. And while most of these candidates are destined for The Hall of the Very Good, a few names do stick out:

Ken Anderson: It looks like Anderson will join the list of one-time MVP quarterbacks not in the Hall of Fame because he hasn't been a finalist since 1998. But although it's difficult to evaluate quarterbacks across eras, he led the NFL in passer rating four times, joining a select group of Steve Young, Roger Staubach and Otto Graham.

Al Baker: Considered one of the NFL's greatest pass-rushers, Baker's numbers suffer because sacks didn't become an official statistic until 1983. By that time, Baker had compiled seasons of 23, 16, 18 and 10 sacks according to unofficial research — his adjusted total of 131.5 career sacks would move him into 11th place.

Lester Hayes: It's been an interesting path for Hayes, who was a Hall of Fame finalist from 2001 to 2004 before slipping to a semifinalist from 2005 to 2010 and not even making the preliminary list in 2012. It's likely he has been devalued because of his signature contribution: The NFL banned Stickum in 1981, one year after Hayes used it to help snag 18 interceptions (13 in the 12 regular-season games he played and five in four postseason games).

Ray Guy: I think it's unacceptable that no punters have been inducted — it clearly is a position, and someone must be the best (Reggie Roby is the only punter on the ballot) — but some argue Guy is overrated. That position is infamously held by former Sports Illustrated writer Paul Zimmerman, who touts the unheralded Tommy Davis and explains his distaste for Guy in a 2005 story about punting:

But once again, for the umpteenth time, Ray Guy appears on the Hall of Fame ballot. His lifetime gross average was an unimpressive 42.4. I got a letter on his behalf from some lobbying agency that tried to cover this number by explaining that he made up for it by pinning the enemy deep with coffin-corner kicks. This is a flat out lie written by someone who probably spells football with a pf. Guy's big weakness was that he didn't go for the edges. He was a middle of the end zone punter, although he had the livest leg in the game and when he caught one it really hung.

NFL should hit the books

2011-09-21T15:22:00.003-04:00

Falcons cornerback Dunta Robinson, right, was fined $40,000 for his
tackle of Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. (Getty Images)

If I may channel my inner Obama, let me be clear.

Falcons cornerback Dunta Robinson did nothing illegal when he viciously tackled Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin during Sunday night's football game. The NFL doesn't agree, fining Robinson $40,000 for being "a repeat offender of player safety rules" after he was fined $50,000 (later dropped to $25,000 on appeal) for a legitimate penalty against Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson last season.

But therein lies the problem. Although the plays look similar, they're quite distinct. The NFL says you can't penalize a helmet-to-helmet hit against a runner, which is why Steelers linebacker James Harrison didn't get fined (a shock, I know) for his hit against Browns receiver Josh Cribbs last season.

It's admittedly difficult for officials to make the distinction between a defenseless receiver and a runner — at some amorphous point, the former becomes the latter — while watching live game action. But there's a problem when the NFL office doesn't acknowledge the difference after watching slow-motion replays.

When the NFL announced Robinson's most recent fine, the press release tried to clarify the league's position (emphasis theirs).

On the play, Robinson lowered his head and made forcible contact to the head and neck area of Philadelphia wide receiver JEREMY MACLIN. Although Maclin completed the catch, he was still a defenseless player under the rule because he did not have time to protect himself and had not clearly become a runner.

Maybe they should actually read the "Clarification of Hits on Defenseless Players and Roughing the Passer Fouls" section included in the league's discipline guidelines.

If the receiver/runner is capable of avoiding or warding off the impending contact of an opponent, he is no longer a defeneseless player.

Jackson couldn't even get his second foot down before Robinson's blow, so the fine was legitimate. It's pretty clear, however, that after Maclin caught the ball, he saw Robinson and started to turn his body to avoid a bone-crushing hit. Maclin didn't succeed, of course, but the distinction is meaningless if you have to actually avoid the hit — because then helmet-to-helmet contact wouldn't have happened.

NBC color analyst Chris Collinsworth even says "there was plenty of time to react on this one" — referring to Robinson, of course — and play-by-play announcer Al Michaels adds "at least Maclin knew it was coming, for that's worth." It's worth everything! NFL players can initiate helmet-to-helmet contact against a runner as long as they don't launch off the ground (which Robinson came dangerously close to doing).

But let's look at the bright side. There was a worse perversion of justice last season when the officials penalized the Philadelphia Eagles and incorrectly called a fumble an incomplete pass simply because Colts receiver Austin Collie was visibly concussed from a legal hit.

To QBR or not to QBR?

2011-09-12T12:29:00.004-04:00

During the NFL lockout, ESPN filled airtime by revealing Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), which the cable giant presumably hopes will overtake passer rating as the comprehensive way to quickly evaluate quarterbacks. But even in this Sabermetrics era, I don't think the metric will resonate with football fans. (That's not to say it won't make inroads with team personnel, although I'm not bullish on that either.)

QBR has too many moving parts, which makes it impossible for the average viewer to calculate. Passer rating isn't popularly understood either, but the formula is accessible and requires only four easily-obtainable statistics — completion percentage, passing yardage, touchdowns and interceptions. QBR requires analysis of every action play (i.e. non-handoff) by a quarterback, which certainly provides value but is too cumbersome for a fan to calculate.

More importantly, however, is that it's unlikely QBR ultimately provides enough of a distinction from passer rating. Take a look at the QBR and passer rating leaders after Week 1 (with two "Monday Night Football" games to play):

QBR (Max = 100)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 91.2
Aaron Rodgers, 91.1
Matthew Stafford, 87.4
Joe Flacco, 79.6
Cam Newton, 75.7
Rex Grossman, 75.0
Drew Brees, 71.6
Matt Schaub, 71.0
Michael Vick, 68.4
Alex Smith, 66.2

Passer Rating (Max = 158.3)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, 133.0
Aaron Rodgers, 132.1
Kevin Kolb, 130.0
Matthew Stafford, 118.9
Joe Flacco, 117.6
Drew Brees, 112.5
Rex Grossman, 110.5
Cam Newton, 110.4
Jay Cutler, 107.8
Andy Dalton, 102.4

Seven quarterbacks made both top 10 lists, and even the order is fairly consistent, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Aaron Rodgers topping both metrics. The bottom of the lists isn't too different, either, with Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Cassel in the bottom three alongside Donovan McNabb (passer rating) and Kerry Collins (QBR). There are a few major differences — Mark Sanchez is No. 26 in QBR but No. 15 in passer rating, probably because Sanchez's fourth-quarter interception is weighted heavily by QBR's "Clutch Factor" while all interceptions are equal in passer rating.

What's most important to recognize is that it's obvious what quarterbacks are good without either rating. Anyone watching the season opener knew Rodgers and Drew Brees were having strong performances even if no statistics were available. And if you looked at the raw numbers, it's no surprise that finishing 24-of-37 for 422 yards, two touchdowns and an interception — plus a rushing touchdown — means Cam Newton had an impressive NFL debut.

(As an aside, QBR's biggest strength is that it incorporates rushing statistics — which explains why Michael Vick finished No. 17 overall in passer rating, but comes in No. 9 in QBR. But once again, that's self-evident because anyone who knows Vick rushed for 98 yards instantaneously assigns that additional value.)

I'm willing to be convinced otherwise as the sample size grows, but QBR doesn't hit the sweet spot yet.

2011 NFC predictions

2011-09-08T03:33:00.004-04:00

NFC East
Eagles* 11-5, Cowboys* 10-6, Giants 6-10, Redskins 3-13
How can the Cowboys seriously think Super Bowl? Preseason darling Philadelphia is getting all the media attention, but Dallas has the offensive weapons — quarterback Tony Romo, running back Felix Jones, wide receivers Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, and tight end Jason Witten — to challenge. It's well documented the Cowboys rallied under coach Jason Garrett after starting 1-7 last season, and the defense has the talent to follow suit with new coordinator Rob Ryan. Linebacker DeMarcus Ware is the star pupil after leading the league with 15.5 sacks, but nose tackle Jay Ratliff, linebacker Keith Brooking and cornerback Terence Newman are underrated pieces to the puzzle.

NFC North
Packers* 12-4, Bears* 10-6, Lions 7-9, Vikings 5-11
How can the Bears return to the postseason? Most pundits are swept up by the Detroit Lions bandwagon, but Chicago wasn't just lucky last season when it won the division title. The Bears beat four playoff participants at home — the Packers, Eagles, Jets and Seahawks — while limiting teams to 17.9 points per game, fourth in the league. Defensive end Julius Peppers anchors that talented and young defense, which continues to receive key production from linebacker Brian Urlacher. Scoring more points is important, and the addition of rookie offensive tackle Gabe Carimi should help keep quarterback Jay Cutler off the ground after he was sacked a league-high 52 times.

NFC South
Saints* 13-3, Falcons 10-6, Buccaneers 9-7, Panthers 4-12
How can the Falcons miss the playoffs? There's quite the bitter taste in Atlanta's mouth after getting routed by Green Bay in the divisional playoffs. Unfortunately, the offense isn't guaranteed to improve because running back Michael Turner and tight end Tony Gonzalez are clearly slowing down, and wide receiver Julio Jones will learn why it's an infamously difficult position for a rookie. Signing free-agent defensive end Ray Edwards will help the defense, which is productive but not flashy. The NFC South is known for annual tumult, and the Falcons aren't immune — it's possible their Week 1 matchup at the Chicago Bears could become the postseason tiebreaker.

NFC West
Cardinals* 9-7, Rams 8-8, 49ers 7-9, Seahawks 4-12
How does Arizona rise to a division title? Everything changed when the Cardinals obtained quarterback Kevin Kolb, who lost his job in Philadelphia after a concussion because Michael Vick proved dynamic. Even if Kolb isn't Pro Bowl-caliber, he's skilled enough to showcase superstar receiver Larry Fitzgerald after last season's Derek Anderson/John Skelton/Max Hall debacle. Although the Cardinals lost cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kolb trade, they drafted potential shutdown cornerback Patrick Peterson with the No. 5 overall pick. Defensive ends Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett can help cover up enough flaws to survive the league's worst division.

NFC playoffs (teams marked by *)
Wild-card round: Eagles beat Bears, Cowboys beat Cardinals
Divisional round: Cowboys beat Saints, Packers beat Eagles
Conference championship: Cowboys beat Packers
Super Bowl: Patriots beat Cowboys

2011 AFC predictions

2011-09-07T13:17:00.002-04:00

AFC East
Patriots* (13-3), Jets (9-7), Dolphins (6-10), Bills (6-10)
How can the Jets miss the playoffs? New York played in the past two AFC Championship games but relying on 34-year-old wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who returns to the NFL after a two-year prison sentence on gun charges, and aging running back LaDainian Tomlinson will hurt its three-peat chances. The Jets also lost key role players — wide receivers Brad Smith and Jerricho Cotchery and defensive linemen Shaun Ellis and Jason Taylor — in free agency while flirting with cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha.Running back Shonn Greene still needs to show he can shoulder the load behind a capable offensive line, and critics will continue accusing quarterback Mark Sanchez of being a game manager. Cornerback Darrelle Revis remains a superstar, but the Jets' defense may be hampered by an aging linebacker corps — Bryan Thomas (32), Bart Scott (31) and Calvin Pace (30) join David Harris (27).

AFC North
Ravens* (12-4), Steelers* (10-6), Browns (6-10), Bengals (2-14)
How can the Ravens end the Steelers' reign? The Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry is smashmouth football at its finest, with eight close meetings — Pittsburgh by 7, Pittsburgh by 3, Baltimore by 3, Baltimore by 3, Pittsburgh by 3, Pittsburgh by 9, Pittsburgh by 4, Pittsburgh by 3 — in the past three seasons. The Steelers twice eliminated the Ravens in the playoffs during that timespan, but the Pittsburgh defense is aging and Baltimore aggressively added offensive pieces this offseason. Fullback Vonta Leach is a fierce blocker, wide receiver Lee Evans is a deep threat, offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie boasts rare size and running back Ricky Williams will provide important depth. Baltimore isn't a blitz-happy defense anymore, but it's finished third in points allowed three consecutive seasons and is anchored up the middle by defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, linebacker Ray Lewis and free safety Ed Reed.

AFC South
Texans* (10-6), Colts (8-8), Titans (7-9), Jaguars (5-11)
How can the Texans make their first postseason appearance? Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning's neck injury certainly opens the window of opportunity for Houston, which has watched the Colts win seven of nine potential AFC South titles. But that's not to say the Texans haven't improved — the arrival of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips alone will bolster a defense that allowed 24 or more points in 14 games last season. Former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams is moving from defensive end to linebacker in Phillips' 3-4 scheme, and Houston welcomes rookie defensive end J.J. Watt, rookie linebacker Brooks Reed and unsung cornerback Johnathan Joseph, who left Cincinnati in free agency. And there's no reason to think the deadly quartet of quarterback Matt Schaub, running back Arian Foster, wide receiver Andre Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels will stop pouring on the points.

AFC West
Chargers* (11-5), Broncos* (10-6), Raiders (7-9), Chiefs (6-10)
How can Denver go from 4-12 to the playoffs? At the risk of beating a dead Bronco, it's not a rare journey. Denver had the league's worst defense last season (in points and yards allowed), but that won't happen again with the return of defensive end Elvis Dumervil, who missed 2010 with a torn pectoral muscle but has 43 career sacks in four seasons, and the addition of rookie linebacker Von Miller, the No. 2 overall draft pick who shined in the preseason. New coach Jon Fox finished at least 7-9 in his first eight seasons with Carolina, including three playoff appearances and a Super Bowl. Quarterback Kyle Orton was on pace to finish fourth in passing yards — behind Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees — if Denver didn't test drive 2010 first-round draft pick Tim Tebow for three games. And don't forget Denver has one of the NFL's best offensive tackles (Ryan Clady) and cornerbacks (Champ Bailey).

AFC playoffs (teams marked by *)
Wild-card round: Chargers beat Broncos, Texans beat Steelers
Divisional round: Patriots beat Texans, Ravens beat Chargers
Conference championship: Patriots beat Ravens

Hope for the NFL's downtrodden

2011-09-01T13:12:00.002-04:00

Fred Jackson and the Buffalo Bills were 4-12 last season, but aren't out of the playoff race.

I'm not making my season predictions yet, but it's worth following up on last year's post about three legitimate trends prognosticators need to begin recognizing. Although my specific picks were bad, was I vindicated?

At least five new playoff teams and three new division winners

True. The Steelers, Chiefs, Bears, Falcons and Seahawks were new division winners.

I respect Sports Illustrated's Peter King, and he had the foresight to predict the Packers and Steelers to make Super Bowl XLV last preseason. But he only picked three new playoff teams this year — Chargers, Lions and Rams — and there certainly will be more turnover. For what it's worth, King foresees a Falcons-Chargers title game this year.

A team makes the playoffs after finishing with five wins or fewer the previous year

True. I picked the two wrong teams — Redskins and Raiders, although Oakland did finish 8-8 — but the Chiefs improved from 4-12 to 10-6 and the Seahawks improved from 5-11 to 7-9. Additionally, the Buccaneers went from 3-13 to 10-6 without making the playoffs and the Rams went from 1-15 to 7-9.

I postulated the simplest reasons a team improves is because of a new quarterback and/or coach, which doesn't explain Kansas City's rise (although Matt Cassel played better in his second year with the team). But Seattle had a new coach (Pete Carroll) and Tampa Bay (Josh Freeman) and St. Louis (Sam Bradford) had new quarterbacks.

So who are this year's candidates?

Arizona (5-11)
Cleveland (5-11)
Buffalo (4-12)
Cincinnati (4-12)
Denver (4-12)
Carolina (2-14)

I admit it's hard to stomach that one of these teams will make the playoffs, but it's quite simply always the case — the Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV after finishing 4-12 and the Dolphins made the 2009 playoffs after finishing 1-15. The NFL is a parity-driven league and rewards teams with miserable records by giving them an easier schedule.

For what it's worth, Arizona, Cincinnati and Carolina have new quarterbacks and Denver and Cleveland have a new coach this season. Unsurprisingly, King doesn't predict any of these teams will make the postseason.

Two of the four conference championship teams weren't there the year before

True. Although my predictions were wrong again — the Dolphins and 49ers didn't even make the playoffs — the Steelers, Bears and Packers were fresh participants in last season's conference championship games.

At least King doesn't shy away here, picking four new teams — the Chargers, Ravens, Falcons and Saints.

Performance-enhancing offseason?

2011-09-01T12:11:00.001-04:00

Editor's note: I never published this in May 2010 because I was waiting for more response from AP voters, but I regret that decision because I think the piece added to the conversation. Because I don't want it to go completely to waste, here's a post completely irrelevant to the current newscycle. I didn't change anything other than updating a dead link.

Something has been lost amid the hubbub over Brian Cushing's steroid suspension — the Houston Texans linebacker will miss four games after testing positive for hCG, a fertility drug used during steroid cycles — and The Associated Press' unprecedented decision to revote for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.

It's not surprising that almost half of the AP voters (24 of 50) switched their votes. Several commentators are arguing nobody should have voted a second time for Cushing, who won the award again. I'll leave that for others to decide, although I don't fault holding a revote (Cushing tested positive in September, at the beginning of his rookie season) or voting for Cushing twice (in an attempt to avoid revising history).

What's surprising is the breakdown of the revote reveals four voters who changed their minds originally voted for someone other than Cushing. Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was brazen enough to change his vote to Cushing after originally selecting Buffalo Bills safety Jairus Byrd.

David Elfin, formerly of the Washington Times, changed his vote from Byrd to Washington Redskins linebacker Bryan Orapko. Len Shapiro of the Miami Herald changed his vote from Orapko to Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews. Howard Balzer of Fox Sports Net changed his vote from Orapko to St. Louis linebacker James Laurinaitis, who didn't receive any votes in the original tally.

It seems likely Cushing took steroids to improve his on-field performance. But what did these players do during the offseason — there were four months between the votes — to boost their predetermined statistics? I reached out to the aforementioned voters to get some insight into their thought process.

Elfin said he gave his decision more thought, and considered how Orakpo — who played defensive end at Texas — had changed positions since college.

"It was razor-close each time," Elfin wrote in an e-mail. "I just decided that Orakpo had a slightly better season on a good defense."

I don't fault any of the voters for changing their mind. It's a sign of intelligence when people are comfortable enough to form a new opinion after receiving additional information (most blatantly in Cushing's case).

The Pro Football Hall of Fame even embraces the power of persuasion, for better or worse. Each of the semifinalists receives a presentation (often from a voter who covers their former team) arguing for their induction before the 50 voters

Perhaps the moral of the story is that the AP should give voters more time before collecting their ballots for postseason awards. I don't know exactly how the process works, but Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin was named Offensive Rookie of the Year only three days after the regular season ended.

The voters likely have an idea of who they will select by that point, but there's no reason to expedite the process. With two weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, why not give the voters some extra time and announce all the award winners during that dead time?

2010 playoff watch

2010-09-17T19:35:00.001-04:00

I attempted this last year and gave up after a few weeks. I'll try to avoid that problem this year by simplifying my job. This will be a running thread of the weekly playoff picture. It's pure chaos after Week 1 because of the vast number of tiebreakers needed. That's why teams like the Patriots and Packers aren't yet in the playoffs despite season-opening wins.

The teams are listed in order of seedings, and I'm providing the link to the relevant tiebreaker information. It should be interesting to see how fluid (or not) the postseason berths are throughout the year.
* Teams that wouldn't have made the playoffs the previous week

Week 1
AFC: Dolphins (1-0), Chiefs (1-0), Texans (1-0), Ravens (1-0), Titans (1-0), Jaguars (1-0)
NFC: Seahawks (1-0), Bears (1-0), Saints (1-0), Redskins (1-0), Cardinals (1-0), Giants (1-0)

Week 2
AFC: *Steelers (2-0), Dolphins (2-0), Chiefs (2-0), Texans (2-0), *Chargers (1-1), *Jets (1-1)
NFC: Bears (2-0), *Buccaneers (2-0), Seahawks (2-0), Redskins (2-0), *Packers (2-0), Saints (2-0)

Why your NFL picks are wrong

2010-09-09T15:24:00.000-04:00

Ask the average NFL fan what teams will make the playoffs and they will rattle off last year's participants. Ask the average NFL analyst, and you will likely get the same response.

Even professionals like to play it safe during preseason predictions by selecting almost exactly what happened last year. It's a way to minimize risk because the potential reward is medicore. The Steelers were a popular pick to make the Super Bowl last season after winning the title in 2008. Pittsburgh didn't even make the playoffs, but who can be faulted for assuming they would be good? Anybody that picked the Bengals to make the playoffs following a 4-11-1 season was laughed at.

Thankfully, there are some commentators who are also "enlightened." Mike Florio of profootballtalk.com decries the trend to pick the same playoff teams and Bill Simmons of espn.com (justifiably) bucks convention and only picks six playoff teams to repeat.

Here are two legitimate trends you should follow when making NFL predictions.

1. There have been at least five new playoff teams and three new division winners every season since 2003, the year after the NFL split into eight divisions of four teams. And this is understating the trend -- there have been 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 5, 8 new playoff teams (6.428 average) and 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 3, 5 new division winners (3.571 average) since 2003.

And these aren't all 8-8 teams that win two more games -- at least one team every season made the playoffs after finishing with five wins or fewer the previous year. Need the proof?

2009: Bengals, 4-11-1 to 11-5
2008: Dolphins, 1-15 to 11-5; Ravens, 5-11 to 11-5; Falcons, 4-12 to 11-5
2007: Buccaneers, 4-12 to 9-7; Redskins, 5-11 to 9-7
2006: Jets, 4-12 to 10-6; Saints, 3-13 to 10-6
2005: Bears, 5-11 to 11-5; Buccaneers 5-11 to 11-5
2004: Chargers, 4-12 to 12-4; Falcons 5-11 to 11-5
2003: Cowboys, 5-11 to 10-6

I plan on doing more research on common threads between these teams, but the most basic is a new quarterback (or one returning from a season lost to injury) and/or new coach. That's why I picked the 5-11 Raiders (huge upgrade from JaMarcus Russell to Jason Campbell) and 4-12 Redskins (Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb are wily veterans) to make the playoffs.

2. During that same timeframe, at least two of the four conference championship teams -- 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4 since 2003 -- didn't make it that far the previous season.

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the season. Playoff teams are in bold.

AFC East: Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Bills
AFC North: Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Browns
AFC South: Colts, Texans, Titans, Jaguars
AFC West: Raiders, Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos
NFC East: Cowboys, Redskins, Giants, Eagles
NFC North: Packers, Bears, Vikings, Lions
NFC South: Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Buccaneers
NFC West: 49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams

AFC Championship: Dolphins over Colts
NFC Championship: Packers over 49ers
Super Bowl: Packers over Dolphins

Sudden death's slow death?

2010-03-24T04:24:00.001-04:00

My blog's name took a minor blow today when the NFL voted 28-4 to tweak the overtime rules for postseason games. ProFootballTalk.com has a good synopsis of the change, but basically, the team that receives the opening kickoff in overtime cannot win with a field goal on its first drive.

I think the change is unnecessary for many reasons, and I expect the new rule to create mostly unforeseen consequences. That's because the probability of a playoff game ending on a first-possession field goal is already extremely low.

Let's take a look at the numbers. There have been 460 NFL postseason games. Twenty-seven ended in overtime since the league introduced sudden death in 1941. Five ended on the first possession of overtime. Three ended on first-possession field goals. The first two were 23- and 26-yard kicks attempted after driving the length of the field. In almost 70 years, the NFL's new rule would have strongly affected one game (!) -- there is little coincidence it was last year's NFC Championship, when New Orleans won on a 40-yard field goal.

Three out of 460 postseason games (0.65 percent) were won on a first-possession field goal. And for all we know, even these games might have ended with the same score under the new rule -- if the losing team failed to score on its ensuing possession. Overreaction because of the recency effect, anyone?

Too be fair, all three of the postseason games retroactively "affected" by this new rule happened within the last decade. There were three overtime playoff games in the first 25 years, eight in the next 25 years, and 16 in the most recent 19 years. It's pretty easy to explain that trend, though, because the number of playoff games per year has increased from one to three to five to nine to 11.

NFL owners will likely vote in May about extending the new rule to the regular season (which is not expected to pass), and I hope they are not waiting to observe how it tangibly works in the postseason -- that could be a while.

An annual exercise in futility

2010-01-09T15:11:00.000-05:00

At the beginning of last postseason, I picked the Carolina Panthers to beat the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl. Neither made it that far, and I only correctly predicted one of the four teams (Ravens) that faced off in the conference championship games.

So who should you gamble against this year?

It's been a tougher exercise than I imagined. It's fairly common knowledge that it's unlikely for the Super Bowl to be composed of Nos. 1 and 2 seeds. In the last four seasons, at least two teams with bye weeks lost their first game. But, this year's top seeds have been all but dismissed by the national media by fading down the stretch in the regular season.

Like last year, I'll update this post with the actual results from the games as they happen.

AFC Wild-Card

Cincinnati over New York New York 24, Cincinnati 14

New England over Baltimore Baltimore 33, New England 14

AFC Divisional

San Diego over New England New York 17, San Diego 14

Indianapolis over Cincinnati Indianapolis 20, Baltimore 3

AFC Championship

Indianapolis over San Diego Indianapolis 30, New York 17

NFC Wild-Card

Philadelphia over Dallas Dallas 34, Philadelphia 14

Green Bay over Arizona Arizona 51, Green Bay 45 (OT)

NFC Divisional

Green Bay over Minnesota Minnesota 34, Dallas 3

New Orleans over Philadelphia New Orleans 45, Arizona 14

NFC Championship

Green Bay over New Orleans New Orleans 31, Minnesota 28

Super Bowl

Indianapolis over Green Bay New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17

Playoff predictors?

2010-01-09T14:00:00.000-05:00

I haven't done the research yet to see if these records might provide any insight into what will happen in the playoffs, but it's still worth looking at how each playoff team did against other playoff teams throughout the regular season.

Every team has at least one loss to a playoff team, and only Philadelphia doesn't have at least one win. Baltimore has by far had the most interesting season -- it's only 1-6 against playoff teams, but those six losses were by an average of only six points each.

New Orleans Saints, 3-1

Beat Philadelphia 48-22

Beat New York Jets 24-10

Beat New England 38-17

Lost to Dallas 24-17

Minnesota Vikings, 4-1

Beat Green Bay 30-23

Beat Baltimore 33-31

Beat Green Bay 38-26

Lost to Arizona 30-17

Beat Cincinnati 30-10

Dallas Cowboys, 3-2

Beat Philadelphia 20-16

Lost to Green Bay 17-7

Lost to San Diego 20-17

Beat New Orleans 24-17

Beat Philadelphia 24-0

Arizona Cardinals, 1-2

Lost to Indianapolis 31-10

Beat Minnesota 30-17

Lost to Green Bay 33-7

Green Bay Packers, 3-3

Lost to Cincinnati 31-24

Lost to Minnesota 30-23

Lost to Minnesota 38-26

Beat Dallas 17-7

Beat Baltimore 27-14

Beat Arizona 33-7

Philadelphia Eagles, 0-4

Lost to New Orleans 48-22

Lost to Dallas 20-16

Lost to San Diego 31-23

Lost to Dallas 24-0

Indianapolis Colts, 3-1

Beat Arizona 31-10

Beat New England 35-34

Beat Baltimore 17-15

Lost to New York Jets 29-15

San Diego Chargers, 3-1

Lost to Baltimore 31-26

Beat Philadelphia 31-23

Beat Dallas 20-17

Beat Cincinnati 27-24

New England Patriots, 2-3

Lost to New York Jets 16-9

Beat Baltimore 27-21

Lost to Indianapolis 35-34

Beat New York Jets 31-14

Lost to New Orleans 38-17

Cincinnati Bengals, 3-3

Beat Green Bay 31-24

Beat Baltimore 17-14

Beat Baltimore 17-7

Lost to Minnesota 30-10

Lost to San Diego 27-24

Lost to New York Jets 37-0

New York Jets, 3-2

Beat New England 16-9

Lost to New Orleans 24-10

Lost to New England 31-14

Beat Indianapolis 29-15

Beat Cincinnati 37-0

Baltimore Ravens, 1-6

Beat San Diego 31-26

Lost to New England 27-21

Lost to Cincinnati 17-14

Lost to Minnesota 33-31

Lost to Cincinnati 17-7

Lost to Indianapolis 17-15

Lost to Green Bay 27-14

Winning it all requires winning streak

2010-01-02T21:24:00.000-05:00

Update: The New Orleans Saints, owners of a 13-game winning streak in the regular season, won the Super Bowl, and kept this simple predictor a perfect 44-for-44. The Indianapolis Colts, who lost the Super Bowl, had a 14-game winning streak in the regular season.

My first substantive post when I began this blog was about how playoff teams that didn't compile at least a four-game winning streak during the regular season would find it difficult -- historically it's never happened -- to do so during the postseason.

To make a long story short, every Super Bowl winner has had at least a four-game winning streak during the regular season. Yes, five wild-card teams have won the Super Bowl -- but four of them had winning streaks of six or more games, and the other had two four-game streaks.

That means we can safely assume the Lombardi Trophy won't be given to New England, New York Jets, Baltimore or Arizona. Each would have to win four consecutive playoff games against top contenders, something they weren't able to do against run-of-the-mill competition.

Let's take a quick look at the longest winning streaks of the playoff teams:

AFC
Indianapolis: 14
San Diego: 11*
New England: 3 (twice)
Cincinnati: 4
New York Jets: 3 (twice)
Baltimore: 3

NFC
New Orleans: 13
Minnesota: 6 (also won 4 straight)
Philadelphia: 6
Arizona: 3 (twice)
Green Bay: 5
Dallas: 4
*Active streak

Randy Moss = Touchdown Machine

2009-12-21T02:58:00.001-05:00

Twelve years into his career, New England Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss remains on pace to break almost all the records held by Jerry Rice, an incoming Hall of Famer. I certainly don't expect him to break many, however, because Rice played for 20 seasons -- and most of them at an extremely high level. Moss may have entered the league at age 21, but he is unlikely to play into his 40s.

That doesn't mean we should ignore that Moss tied Rice on Sunday for the most seasons with 10 or more receiving touchdowns. In a league where scoring touchdowns is the goal, the duo tops an impressive list. Moss and Rice each have reached the milestone nine times, followed by Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison (eight), and Cris Carter (six). Harrison and Carter are retired, so won't add to their totals, but it's conceivable Owens could reach 10 TDs again.

Granted, 10 receiving touchdowns is somewhat of an arbitrary number that sounds nice because of how many fingers we have on our hands. If the cutoff is nine receiving touchdowns, Rice (12) firmly leads the category followed by Moss and Owens (nine), and Harrison and Carter (eight).

Can Moss break the record? Possibly, considering he has reached the 10-touchdown plateau in each of his three seasons with the New England Patriots. But Rice and Harrison each had an eight-year streak snapped, and Owens is watching his own streak of three straight seasons end.

Arizona Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who has four 10+ touchdown years in his first six seasons, is likely the only other active receivers who could join this elite group. Moss had five milestone seasons in his first six years, followed by Rice (four), and Owens and Harrison (three).

Here's the breakdown of the top five receivers on this list:

Randy Moss
Nine times, two teams, four QBs
New England Patriots

2009 13 Tom Brady
2008 11 Matt Cassel
2007 23 Tom Brady
Minnesota Vikings
2004 13 Daunte Culpepper
2003 17 Daunte Culpepper (12); Gus Frerotte (5)
2001 10 Daunte Culpepper (6); Todd Bouman (4)
2000 15 Daunte Culpepper
1999 11 Jeff George (8); Randall Cunningham (3)
1998 17 Randall Cunningham (15); Brad Johnson (2)

Jerry Rice
Nine times, one team, two QBs
San Francisco 49ers
1995 15 Steve Young (11); Elvis Grbac (4)
1994 13 Steve Young
1993 15 Steve Young
1992 10 Steve Young
1991 14 Steve Young (10); Steve Bono (4)
1990 13 Joe Montana (12); Steve Young (1)
1989 17 Joe Montana (14); Steve Young (3); Steve Bono (1)
1987 22 Joe Montana (13); Steve Young (8); Harry Sydney (1)
1986 15 Jeff Kemp (8); Joe Montana (6); Mike Moroski (1)

Terrell Owens
Eight times, three teams, four QBs
Dallas Cowboys
2008 10 Tony Romo (9); Brooks Bollinger (1)
2007 15 Tony Romo
2006 13 Tony Romo (10); Drew Bledsoe (3)
Philadelphia Eagles
2004 14 Donovan McNabb
San Francisco 49ers
2002 13 Jeff Garcia
2001 16 Jeff Garcia
2000 13 Jeff Garcia
1998 14 Steve Young (11); Ty Detmer (2); Terry Kirby (1)

Marvin Harrison
Eight times, one team, one QB
Indianapolis Colts
2006 12 Peyton Manning
2005 12 Peyton Manning
2004 15 Peyton Manning (14); Jim Sorgi (1)
2003 10 Peyton Manning
2002 11 Peyton Manning
2001 15 Peyton Manning (14); Ken Dilger (1)
2000 14 Peyton Manning
1999 12 Peyton Manning

Cris Carter
Six times, two teams, two QBs
Minnesota Vikings
1999 13 Jeff George (11); Randall Cunningham (1); Randy Moss (1)
1998 12 Randall Cunningham (8); Brad Johnson (4)
1997 13 Brad Johnson (8); Randall Cunningham (5)
1996 10 Brad Johnson (8); Warren Moon (2)
1995 17 Warren Moon
Philadelphia Eagles
1989 11 Randall Cunningham (9); Matt Cavanaugh (1); Roger Ruzek (1)

Nota bene: Yes, Moss did throw one of the 13 touchdowns to Carter in 1999 -- a 27-yarder against the New York Giants. ... The next three wide receivers on the list, each with five seasons, are Art Powell, Lance Alworth and Bob Hayes. ... James Lofton is the top player on the career receiving touchdown list (26th overall with 75 touchdowns) without any seasons with 10+ touchdown catches.

Inside the mind of Belichick

2009-11-16T05:23:00.000-05:00

Winning football games, not fans, is Bill Belichick's priority.

But all the media criticism about the New England Patriots coach's fourth-down decision Sunday night would be understandable -- if he had clearly made the incorrect call. That's the problem. Casual football fans, and even the "knowledgable" media are too used to blindly following tradition. It's unfortunate most can't appreciate an unorthodox -- but logical -- decision.

Belichick decided to attempt a fourth-and-2 conversion from the Patriots' 28-yard line instead of punting the ball with a 34-28 lead. The conversion failed, the Patriots turned the ball over on downs and the Colts led a short touchdown drive to win the crucial AFC matchup by one point.

I'm not going to lie. When I saw Belichick send the offense back on the field, I couldn't believe it. But that's not because I thought he was making the wrong decision (I really wasn't sure at the time). It's because he was making a nontraditional decision on national television.

"I thought it was our best chance to win. I thought we needed to make that one play, and then we could basically run out the clock. And, uh, we weren't able to make it," Belichick said in a Monday morning news conference. "I tell the team, and I think they believe, that I do what I feel like is best for our football team to win every game. So I put the team first, and I put those decisions first. And I would hope everybody understands that."

I believe him. Belichick wasn't being arrogant and he wasn't being stupid. He was making the call -- as odd as it seemed -- that he thought gave the Patriots the best chance to win. That's what coaches are paid to do every play, although only late-game situations are so magnified.

And Belichick has done this before. In 2003, he infamously told his long-snapper to send the ball through the back of the end zone for an intentional safety in a game the Patriots were losing by one point with three minutes remaining. The play put New England behind three.

On the surface, allowing the other team to score points is ludicrous. But Belichick is smarter than the average fan, and knew the difference between a one- and three-point deficit at that point in the game is negligible -- in either situation, a touchdown wins and a field goal prevents a regulation loss. The Patriots' field position on their (potential) final drive was more important, and that made the opponent's field position on their final drive crucial.

Belichick determined that a safety kick would likely (not assuredly; he was simply playing the odds) result in better field position than punting from the one-yard line. Of course, none of that would matter if the opponent picked up a first down on their next drive and ran out the clock. But they didn't, and the Patriots started at their 42-yard line and scored the winning touchdown.

The following year, the Detroit Lions followed suit in a similar situation. Don't expect that this time around.

NFL coaches routinely make bad (i.e. conservative) calls for self-preservation. Belichick's name wouldn't be mentioned if the Patriots had punted, and the Colts had scored a game-winning touchdown. Today's stories would be about a monumental collapse by the Patriots defense, and about the legend of Peyton Manning. Belichick inputted himself into the equation because he cares about beating the Colts, and not about a Boston Globe headline.

And, please, let's be aware of hindsight bias. The fact that Belichick's intentional safety ended up working, or that his fourth-down attempt didn't means absolutely nothing regarding the decision itself.

As I expected, Advanced NFL Stats quickly analyzed Belichick's controversial call. The website uses historical NFL data to figure out win probability for a team at any point (using variables such as the score, time remaining, line of scrimmage and down-and-distance). Their conclusion?

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. ... You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

Head to the website to get an exact analysis, and be prepared to get sucked into several convincing arguments against punting in certain situations. This is the quick explanation:

What are the chances of the Patriots winning if they punt? Advanced NFL Stats says 70% historically, taking into account all the variables. What are the chances of the Patriots winning if they attempt a fourth-down conversion? Advanced NFL Stats says 79% -- the Patriots have a 60% chance of converting the fourth down, enabling them to run out the clock, and a 47% chance of preventing the Colts from scoring if they don't convert the fourth down.

The exact numbers and methodology can be critiqued, but the clear message is that Belichick's decision, at worst, is a tossup. Unless you ignore logic and rely on emotions, it was not a definitively wrong call to keep the punter sidelined.

Nota bene: Belichick did make two other mistakes on that drive. As others have noted, the Patriots should have run the ball on third down if they had already decided to go for it on fourth down (a pet peeve of mine, and one I avoid when playing video games), taking the game past the two-minute warning. Failing to do so, the Patriots also wasted a timeout before the fourth down that rendered them unable to challenge a questionable spot.

Team of the 2000s?

2009-11-12T02:37:00.000-05:00

With the 2009 season halfway complete, it's a little premature to discuss the team of the decade. That doesn't stop the New York Times' excellent Fifth Down blog from posing the question. Or me from answering it.

When football fans think of the dominant teams of the 1960s (Green Bay Packers, 5 titles), 1970s (Steelers, 4), 1980s (San Francisco 49ers, 4) and 1990s (Dallas Cowboys, 3), a team instantly comes to mind.

This decade makes us stop and think. The NYT headline, and all of the comments, contain the argument to the New England Patriots (3 titles), Pittsburgh Steelers (2) and Indianapolis Colts (1). If the Patriots win this year's Super Bowl, it won't even be a debate. If the Steelers or Colts win, it gets tricky.

In this thought exercise, we demand both quantity and quality. Sorry, NFC.

We clearly value sustained success. Nobody makes a case for the New York Giants, who have more Super Bowl appearances (2) and as many titles (1) as the Colts. The reason? The Giants have four non-winning seasons this decade.

We clearly value the pinnacle of success. Nobody makes a case for the Philadelphia Eagles, who have as many conference championship appearances (5) as the Patriots, and more than the Steelers (4) and Colts (2). The reason? The Eagles haven't won any Super Bowls this decade.

At this point, I lean toward the Patriots, who notably have a 2-0 record against the Steelers and a 2-1 record against the Colts in the playoffs this decade. It certainly doesn't hurt to have an undefeated regular season on your resume.

Nota bene: The Patriots (16-0 in 2007), Steelers (15-1 in 2004) and Colts (14-2 in 2005) did not win the Super Bowl in their "best" regular seasons.

Week Three Playoff Picture

2009-10-04T02:54:00.001-04:00

The Week Three playoff picture is much easier to figure out now that more teams have losses, and fewer tiebreakers are needed. In the AFC, the Steelers fall out of the playoffs and the Patriots slide in. It's the same six teams in the NFC as last week.

AFC Seedings

1. Jets (3-0)

2. Broncos (3-0)

3. Colts (3-0)

4. Ravens (3-0)

5. Chargers (2-1)

6. Patriots (2-1)

AFC Projections

Wild card

Colts 23, Patriots 13

It might not be fair, but a healthy Manning beats a rusty Brady

Ravens 27, Chargers 21

Putting trust in Norv Turner is a dangerous, risky proposition

Division

Ravens 17, Jets 16

Rex Ryan's old defense is fired up enough to fluster his new team

Colts 23, Broncos 10

Past playoff losses hurt Denver mentally in this one-sided "rivalry"

Conference

Colts 27, Ravens 20

Quiet home crowd helps Manning spread ball around for 300+ yards

NFC Seedings

1. Giants (3-0)

2. Vikings (3-0)

3. Saints (3-0)

4. 49ers (2-1)

5. Packers (2-1)

6. Falcons (2-1)

NFC Projections

Wild card

Falcons 28, Saints 27

Turner helps Atlanta control ball, provides two 1-yard touchdowns

Packers 16, 49ers 10

Absence of Gore too much for overwhelmed 49ers to overcome

Division

Giants 19, Falcons 14

Fast-rising receiving duo of Smith, Manningham provides boost

Vikings 20, Packers 13

Minnesota will pound the ball, and help Favre avoid key mistakes

Conference

Vikings 31, Giants 10

Harvin returns kickoff for TD, Minnesota avenges past playoff defeats

Super Bowl

Colts 17, Vikings 12

With six MVPs on the field, Division III's Garcon makes the big play

(Belated) Week Two Playoff Seedings

2009-10-04T01:28:00.000-04:00

Although I figured out the playoff seedings almost immediately after Week Two ended, I completely failed in posting them. Better late than never, right? I didn't do my playoff projections until now, however, so I'll try to erase Week Three from my mind. For the curious, here are Week Two tiebreakers.

AFC Seedings

1. Jets (2-0)

2. Broncos (2-0)

3. Ravens (2-0)

4. Colts (2-0)

5. Steelers (1-1)

6. Chargers (1-1)

AFC Projections

Wild card

Ravens 23, Chargers 14

LT still sidelined, but Baltimore has three-headed rushing attack

Colts 19, Steelers 13

Vinatieri's leg gets another postseason workout with four FGs

Division

Colts 27, Jets 10

Manning has seen every defense in the book; Sanchez hasn't

Ravens 20, Broncos 7

Crowd doesn't appreciate Orton's three-INT performance

Championship

Ravens 21, Colts 18

Flacco spreads his postseason wings with 300 yards passing

NFC Seedings

1. Giants (2-0)

2. 49ers (2-0)

3. Vikings (2-0)

4. Falcons (2-0)

5. Saints (2-0)

6. Packers (1-1)

NFC Projections

Wild card

Saints 41, Falcons 28

Shockey, Gonzalez each score TD as defensive focus is elsewhere

Vikings 27, Packers 17

Peterson could have chance to break 300-yard rushing mark

Division

Saints 27, Giants 20

Manning doesn't have firepower to overcome crucial turnover

Vikings 20, 49ers 10

If Crabtree was playing instead of whining, 49ers would have shot

Conference

Saints 31, Vikings 17

Despite road game, dome is home-sweet-home for Brees

Super Bowl

Saints 31, Ravens 20

New Orleans has too many weapons for Lewis and Co. to cover

Playoffs?!? Are you talking about playoffs?!?

2009-09-20T03:56:00.000-04:00

Some publications are already producing MVP watch lists, which I think is kind of silly, but whatever. The real problem is that the MVP doesn't ultimately matter! The Super Bowl does, and that's why I will publish the playoff seedings every week as if the regular season had just ended. Just for fun, I'll predict the playoff results using those brackets and the team's current injury situation.

The first few weeks (especially this one) will be somewhat skewed because of tiebreakers (e.g. teams that win division games have a huge advantage). The league's tiebreaking procedures are here. I am including a link to the relevant tiebreakers, but let me know if you wonder why Team X qualified instead of Team Y. As a caveat, I certainly could make mistakes because many of the tiebreakers needed this early in the season are never actually used by the NFL.

AFC Seedings

1. Baltimore Ravens, 1-0 (AFC North champions)
2. San Diego Chargers, 1-0 (AFC West champions)
3. New England Patriots, 1-0 (AFC East champions)
4. Indianapolis Colts, 1-0 (AFC South champions)
5. New York Jets, 1-0 (Wild card)
6. Denver Broncos, 1-0 (Wild card)

AFC Projections

Wild card
Patriots 27, Broncos 10
Denver's fluke Week One win won't be repeated against Brady & Co.
Colts 20, Jets 16
Manning (three NFL MVPs) edges Sanchez (one NFL win) in experience

Division
Ravens 21, Colts 15
Bye week will give revamped Baltimore defense time to settle down
Chargers 34, Patriots 24
Sproles, healthy Tomlinson give New England linebackers trouble

Conference
Ravens 19, Chargers 17
Lewis tackles Rivers for safety with Super Bowl berth on the line

NFC Seedings

1. Seahawks, 1-0 (NFC West champions)
2. Packers, 1-0 (NFC North champions)
3. Giants, 1-0 (NFC East champions)
4. Saints, 1-0 (NFC South champions)
5. Eagles, 1-0 (Wild card)
6. Vikings, 1-0 (Wild card)

NFC Projections

Wild card
Vikings 31, Giants 20
Stout Minnesota defense doesn't let Jacobs, Bradshaw get rolling
Saints 35, Eagles 17
An injured McNabb would play, but not well, as Brees throws four TDs

Division
Vikings 23, Seahawks 14
Peterson runs for 150 yards, 2 TDs as Favre remains a game manager
Packers 31, Saints 30
Crosby exorcises demons with long field goal to win expected shootout

Conference
Packers 21, Vikings 18
Favre rattled in return to Lambeau Field, throws three INTs

Super Bowl
Ravens 23, Packers 14
Dangerous RB trio wears down Packers defense with 200 yards on ground

Week One Observations

2009-09-18T15:33:00.000-04:00

The NFL regular season has finally returned, and so have I. Because I work almost every Sunday, I'm not able to watch nearly enough football. This year, I bought NFL Game Rewind from NFL.com, which allows me to watch any game after the fact. And if I watch more football, I'll do more blogging (which isn't hard to do when I've set the standard at none during the past five months).

This week, I was able to watch the Colts-Jaguars and Packers-Bears live, and the Steelers-Titans and Patriots-Bills on delay. I also watched the NFL.com highlights for each of the other games. Here's some of my thoughts (I'm heavily biased toward the Patriots-Bills because I watched that game most recently):

1. Adrian Peterson (the Vikings version, of course) is the best offensive player in the league today. He had five runs of 10+ yards, including this jaw-dropping 64-yard TD. Running backs wear down quickly, especially when they have a lot of carries, so appreciate now what Peterson is doing in his third NFL season.

2. I'm shocked, and extremely thankful, that I haven't heard people clamoring for changes to overtime after the Steelers beat the Titans on an opening-drive field goal in the extra session. I'll assume people are still actually stupid, and simply felt Pittsburgh deserved to win after Hines Ward' heat-of-the-moment fumble in the final minute of regulation.

3. Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio made the wrong decision going for a two-point conversion at the end of the game. Not because the Jaguars missed, and lost 14-12, but because there was too much time remaining. Failing to convert with 5:30 left meant an Indianapolis touchdown would make it a two-score game. And only New England can overcome that deficit so quickly, right?

4. Three of the most athletic plays of the week came from defensive players in the Packers-Bears tilt. Green Bay defensive tackle Johnny Jolly sniffed out a screen pass and made a great diving interception that would make any cornerback jealous. Chicago safety Danieal Manning broke through the line to sack Aaron Rodgers in the end zone, using his strength to prevent a desperation heave. And Green Bay linebacker Brandon Chillar's hurdle of a running back to sack Jay Cutler was a thing of beauty.

5a. For all the furor over tennis players -- yes, tennis players -- swearing on television, I am surprised nobody noted that Wes Welker audibly dropped the f-bomb after dropping the first pass thrown his way. How can he get attention like Serena Williams and Roger Federer when saying naughty things? Lose?

5b. Randy Moss uses his lengthy arms to block with his hands, never putting his body into a defender a la Hines Ward. He also tries to block quickly and get to the next line of defense on running plays. Moss had three first-half catches on six targets and nine second-half catches on 10 targets, tying a career high with 12 receptions. Maybe Tom Brady, who only threw deep once (incomplete to Joey Galloway), just needed to get warmed up in his return from knee surgery.

5c. On Buffalo's second play from scrimmage, Terrell Owens was utterly confused. The Bills are implementing a no-huddle offense this season, and when Trent Edwards changed the play at the line, Owens threw his hands up in what-am-I-supposed-to-do fashion. After the snap, he jogged while watching the play develop, thankful it was a run.

5d. There were two things I never heard in all the coverage of Leodis McKelvin, who became the unwelcome center of attention after fumbling away a fourth-quarter kickoff return and allowing the Patriots to take the late lead. McKelvin fumbled on his previous kickoff return (although the Bills recovered), and actually took a touchback in a similar situation in the first half.

Is the NFL's landscape static or dynamic?

2009-04-15T06:37:00.001-04:00

Ten years ago, Peter King of Sports Illustrated moderated a roundtable of seven NFL personnel to discuss the state of the game -- and its future. Would a re-read of the piece provide any insight after a decade's worth of changes? I have included some interesting portions of the 1999 discussion, and some quick thoughts about their current status.

The roundtable, with current position in parentheses, consisted of:
Bill Ford Jr., Detroit Lions vice chairman (same)
Ron Wolf, Green Bay Packers general manager (retired)
Mike Shanahan, Denver Broncos head coach (retired)
David Hill, Fox Sports TV president (same)
Gene Upshaw, NFL Players Association executive director (deceased)
Paul Tagliabue, NFL commissioner (retired)
Cris Carter, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver (retired, TV broadcaster)

Broadcasting

King: Is that on the horizon, Paul?

Tagliabue: Switching from broadcast television to some subscriber kind of television as the primary way of reaching the public? Certainly not. The Super Bowl becomes a national holiday because we have most of the nation interested and ready to watch it. Now does that mean you have to be static with respect to television? Absolutely not.

The NFL Network, which was launched in 2003, has given some fans 24-hour access to the league. There are some unequivocal positives -- like nationally televising the college all-star games, scouting combine and many preseason games -- but being a cable network has raised its share of problems. Eight of the league's games are now shown only on NFL Network, and some cable companies have refused to pay for the channel because it has marginal appeal to their subscribers.

Competitive balance

King: Ron, after seven years, is the salary cap working?

Wolf: If the idea of the salary cap was to bring about that six-letter word that everyone kind of chokes on, parity, yeah, then it's working. Because what has happened with the cap is, if you become good, you can't stay that way. I don't think, though, there is anything wrong with having a dominant team.

In back-to-back seasons we have seen the league's first 16-0 and 0-16 teams. The New England Patriots have won three Super Bowls in four seasons, and the Miami Dolphins have gone from 1-15 to 10-6 in one season. We know it is possible to have long-term success in the salary-cap era (e.g. Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles), but that certain components -- namely, a top quarterback, coach, and player evaluation system -- are key. The league continues to promote parity by rewarding bad teams with prime draft positions and easy schedules, making it much easier to turn things around quickly.

Player behavior

King: Player behavior. Several teams showed interest in Lawrence Phillips, who has been in a lot of trouble. Three Jets get arrested after a bar fight. The Dolphins sign a convicted cocaine trafficker. Anybody concerned?

Tagliabue: [All the reporting about bad behavior] is sort of a media phenomenon that happens when there's not much else to write about. As Cris said earlier, we could do a better job, but we have 2,500 players coming through the NFL every year. Compared to society at large, especially young people, we've got good young men.

Tagliabue may still be right -- that the vast majority of NFL players are law-abiding citizens -- but the high-profile nature of the Michael Vick and Pacman Jones cases has kept current commissioner Roger Goodell busy handing out punishment. The introduction of a personal-conduct policy has been effective in handling situations across the league more equitably. Also, teams may be growing wary of giving large signing bonuses to players whose bad behavior may make them expendable from the locker room (e.g. Plaxico Burress and the New York Giants).

Expanding schedule

King: Finally, what one thing would you do if you were commissioner for a day?

Carter: I would cancel the fifth preseason game. I'd also like to see the regular season have 14 games instead of 16 games.

King: Why?

Carter: Wear and tear on the body. The product would be better in the playoffs. Especially when you get in situations like we're in in Minnesota and Green Bay where we're practicing on artificial turf three days a week, maybe eight, 10 weeks out of the season.

King: Would you be willing to take less money to play 14 games than to play 16?

Carter: Yes, but I know they're not going to reduce the schedule.

Carter's response is interesting in light of the recent discussions about expanding the regular-season schedule from 16 to 17 or 18 games while at the same time reducing the preseason from four to two games. Several players have said they would need to be paid more in order to accept an extra workload (mostly applicable to starters who don't see much preseason action) because of the increased risk of injuries, particularly career-ending ones.

Conclusion

As with all companies, it's important for the NFL not to relax within a competitive marketplace because there are no guarantees that past success will continue. Nothing hurts worse than labor stoppages (with a 1987 NFL strike, 1994 MLB strike, 1998 NBA lockout and 2004 NHL lockout, it's football's turn again) because fans come back slowly. That's what makes the league's current negotiations regarding the collective-bargaining agreement very important.

Snow in Buffalo? T.O. still a go

2009-03-11T19:24:00.001-04:00

Amid all the hubbub about Terrell Owens being signed by the Buffalo Bills (as a transplanted western New Yorker, I was among those completely blindsided by the news), I found most interesting one online comment -- essentially, "Have fun dropping all those passes in the cold."

Owens, although a Hall-of-Fame caliber talent, is notorious for dropping passes -- according to the Washington Post, he led the NFL with 17 in 2006, tied for third with 10 in 2007 and finished fourth with 10 in 2008.

Because he's nearing the end of his career, nobody expects Owens to put up monster statistics in Buffalo. The assertion got me thinking, however, if it is harder for wide receivers to find success in cold, outdoor environments. And, yes, Buffalo certainly qualifies. It would be possible to do an in-depth study of this phenomenon (or lack thereof), but here's a quick one for simplicity's sake:

Approximately one-third of the 32 NFL franchises could be described as playing their eight home games in cold, outdoor environments. Those 14 unlucky teams? (Minnesota, Detroit, Indianapolis and St. Louis play in domes)

AFC East
Buffalo
New England
New York
AFC North
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Baltimore
AFC West
Denver
Kansas City
NFC East
Philadelphia
New York
Washington
NFC North
Green Bay
Chicago

Granted, only about three or four home games played in November and December should be affected by sub-freezing temperatures and the possibility of snow. But based on my best recollections, significantly less than one-third of the top NFL receivers have played with those franchises.

Of the 60 seasons in which a player has caught 100-plus passes, exactly one-third (20) came in cold-weather environments. None of the top 10 did, however, and eight of those top 10 came with teams that play in domes.

Of the 58 seasons in which a player has recorded 1,400-plus receiving yards, slightly less than one-quarter (14) came with cold-weather teams. None of the top 10 did, and seven of the top 10 came in domes.

Of the 45 seasons in which a player caught 14-plus touchdowns, slightly less than one-third (11) were from cold-weather teams. In this case, though, four of the top 12 came with cold-weather teams, including Randy Moss's record-setting 23-touchdown performance with the New England Patriots.

It looks like T.O. doesn't have too much to worry about, after all. Well, about the weather, at least. For the curious, Owens has one season of 100-plus catches (2002 with San Francisco), two of 1,400-plus yards (2000, 2001 with San Francisco) and four with 14-plus touchdown catches (1998, 2001 with San Francisco; 2004 in cold-weather Philadelphia; 2005 with Dallas).

Houshmandzadeh's svelte in ... number

2009-03-03T20:46:00.000-05:00

I was surprised to find out that new Seattle Seahawks wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who signed with the team this week, will wear No. 18, as ESPN.com's Mike Sando reported in a recent blog post.

My curiosity was piqued because Sando revealed that the decision leaves No. 84 available for free agent Bobby Engram, if he chooses to return to the Seahawks. I was under the impression that wide receivers could only wear Nos. 10-19 if Nos. 80-89 were already taken. When only Nos. 80-89 were designated for wide receivers and tight ends, it became possible to run out if you carried more than six wide receivers and three tight ends on the roster.

But apparently I missed the memo. Prior to the 2004 season, the NFL changed the rules so wide receivers can use the No. 10-19 if they are rookies or on a new team. Numbers matter to many athletes as superstition, identity or homage (Chad Ocho Cinco, nee Johnson, wears No. 84), and ESPN.com exquisitely documented that several rookies jumped at the change.

Reggie Bush of the New Orleans Saints, wore No. 5 in college and tried to get the NFL to change their rules in 2006. The league considered a proposal to allow position players to wear Nos. 1-49, but it was never approved.

For a brief overview of why the NFL assigns numbers based on positions, and what the classifications are, read this Wikipedia post.

And, down the rabbit hole
I'm a big Randy Moss fan, and knew he wore No. 18 as a rookie with the Minnesota Vikings during the preseason before switching to No. 84. He went back to No. 18 during his Oakland years to channel some of his youth:

"I saw 18 on the list and I just went with it. I just thought about me leaving Minnesota, coming here to Oakland to make a new start, and going back to the number that really brought me into this league. Dangerous -- and I want to get back to being a dangerous football player."

When Boston Globe's Mike Reiss reported last year that Moss would wear No. 81 (the inverse of No. 18) with New England, he revealed "[Moss] had actually warmed to the idea of wearing No. 6 -- the amount of points awarded for a touchdown -- but was required to make the switch."

Still deeper in Wonderland
The comments on this 2008 post on Uni Watch, an excellent blog about everything associated with sports uniforms, answered some of my other questions (and raised some others).

At least two tight ends -- Washington's Chris Cooley and Indianapolis' Dallas Clark -- currently wear numbers in the 40s (44 and 41 respectively), presumably because they can be considered H-backs (an uncommon hybrid position of a fullback, halfback and tight end).

And, yes, Keyshawn Johnson wore No. 19 as the No. 1 overall pick for the New York Jets in 1998 well before it was allowed. As the aforementioned ESPN.com article explains:

This trend toward teen numbers can be traced directly to the Dallas Cowboys' No. 19.

"Follow me," Keyshawn Johnson said in the Cowboys' locker room. "It's nothing new. Seems like I always set a standard."

According to the Jets, all of their jerseys in the 80s were taken when Johnson was the No. 1 draft choice in 1996. He was given No. 19, standard procedure for a new player. But after the final cuts were made and some 80s became available, Johnson fought hard to hang onto No. 19. For reasons even the NFL can't quite explain, Johnson was allowed to keep the number.

That same year, some veteran receivers petitioned the league for numbers in the teens, but were denied.

"Keyshawn found a loophole," explained Gene Washington, the NFL's director of operations. "He was very persistent. The next year, we closed the loophole."

"I always wanted to be different," Johnson said. "I didn't want to be like everybody else. And the one thing I could do to identify myself to the fans and the world was by wearing a different number as an outsider."

Harrison's waning career

2009-03-02T19:44:00.000-05:00

Update: Now, only two players among the top 15 reception leaders have played for one team -- Rod Smith, retired, and Marvin Harrison, who remains unsigned. In the offseason, Torry Holt was released by the St. Louis Rams and signed by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tony Gonzalez was traded from the Kansas City Chiefs to the Atlanta Falcons.

The Indianapolis Colts released Marvin Harrison, who had played for the franchise for his entire 13-year career, last week and the future Hall of Fame wide receiver has yet to sign with another team. Can we expect to see Harrison wearing new colors next year, or is his career finished?

Bear with me for a moment, while I set up the background.

Harrison wasn't released solely because he is incapable of playing football anymore. The Colts couldn't afford to pay him so much -- Harrison was scheduled to make $13.4 million in 2009, the highest amount of any receiver, and the Colts saved $6 million in salary by releasing him -- and already have bonafide star Reggie Wayne and up-and-comer Anthony Gonzalez.

At the age of 36, Harrison clearly is nearing the end of his career. But even though he wasn't the No. 1 receiver in Indianapolis the past few seasons, he was a capable No. 2 or No. 3 option -- and there are plenty of teams out there that could use his presence, as ESPN.com's Bill Williamson attested.

In his most recent column, Sports Illustrated's Peter King said he thinks Harrison is done:

I would be surprised if Marvin Harrison plays again. Here's the thing about Harrison: He's made more than $80 million in his 13-year career, including $23 million over the last three seasons. He was due to make $9 million this year. His knees are hurt and he doesn't love football enough at this point to play for something like $2 million plus incentives. In fact, I don't think he loves football much at all right now, feeling the way he feels. And he's not going to fake it. Might he go to someone's camp this summer? Only if the gets real money to do so.

King's colleague, Arash Markazi, however, wrote shortly after Harrison's release that the wide receiver was almost done, but not quite.

Harrison's career isn't over. He'll likely play another season or two, but chances are it won't be for a team outside of Indianapolis. That is unless some team is more enamored with Harrison's name and legacy rather than what he can still do on the field. The best case scenario for him would be re-signing with the Colts and finishing his career where he started it 13 years ago, which in today's league is almost as impressive as any receiving record Harrison has.

Let's look at how other top NFL wide receivers have ended their careers. Harrison is second on the all-time receptions list, so let's look at the top 15:

Rank Player Catches Years
1. Jerry Rice 1,549 1985-2004
2. Marvin Harrison 1,102 1996-2008
3. Cris Carter 1,101 1987-2002
4. Tim Brown 1,094 1988-2004
5. Isaac Bruce 1,003 1994-2008
6. Terrell Owens 951 1996-2008
7. Andre Reed 951 1985-2000
8. Art Monk 940 1980-1995
9. Tony Gonzalez 916 1997-2008
10. Keenan McCardell 883 1992-2007
11. Torry Holt 869 1999-2008
12. Jimmy Smith 862 1992-2005
13. Irving Fryar 851 1984-2000
14. Rod Smith 849 1995-2006
15. Randy Moss 843 1998-2008
Active players are in bold

It's worth noting that only four have played their entire career with one team -- Smith, who is retired, and Harrison, Holt and Gonzalez, who are all active. Of the top 50 reception leaders (including ties, the number is slightly higher), only 13 have played their entire career with one team.

My point? How did these greats finish their careers? Of the nine who aren't still active, seven signed with their final team while in their late 30s. Only one (Jerry Rice) posted significant success, and one (Irving Fryar) was moderately successful. Simply put, Harrison is historically likely to sign with another team this year and catch fewer than 30 passes before retiring.

Jerry Rice, as usual, is a statistical anomaly. After leaving San Francisco at the age of 38, he had three productive years with Oakland, making one Pro Bowl, before his swansong season with Seattle.

Cris Carter left Minnesota at the age of 36, and caught eight passes for Miami.

Tim Brown left Oakland at the age of 38, and caught 24 passes for Tampa Bay.

Andre Reed left Buffalo at the age of 35, and caught 10 passes for Washington.

Art Monk left Washington at the age of 36, and caught 46 passes in a full season with the New York Jets before a six-catch affair with Philadelphia.

Keenan McCardell was traded several times at the end of his career, but after San Diego didn't want him anymore at the age of 36, he had a 22-catch last gasp with Washington.

Jimmy Smith retired with Jacksonville, the only team for which he ever caught a pass.

Irving Fryar played well for three teams, and after leaving Philadelphia at the age of 36, he caught 67 passes in two seasons for Washington.

Rod Smith played for the Broncos his entire career.

Reaction, not Calhoun, embarrassing

2009-02-24T21:36:00.001-05:00

Update: Connecticut politicians are now calling for punishment of UConn men's basketball coach Jim Calhoun.

Another day, another non-NFL post — this one also about sports media.

Because I’m at work, I’ll refer to the most recent The Associated Press story to explain the situation that interests me:

Krayeske, a freelancer and political activist, attended the game on a photo press pass and asked the first question of the coach's postgame news conference following a 64-50 win over South Florida. He asked why the coach of a public university was making $1.6 million while the state has a $944 million deficit and a projected $8 billion shortfall over the next two years.

Calhoun first responded with a joke, then grew angry as Krayeske continued the line of questioning.

"My best advice to you is, shut up," Calhoun said.

"Quite frankly, we bring in $12 million to the university, nothing to do with state funds," Calhoun shouted. "We make $12 million a year for this university. Get some facts and come back and see me. ... Don't throw out salaries and other things."

Calhoun has won two national titles at UConn. He is the state's highest-paid employee and is set to make $1.6 million in 2009-10, the final year of his contract.

I’ll also direct you to Hartford Courant columnist Jeff Jacobs’ look at the story (and more importantly, the video of Calhoun's response at the press conference).

I’ll try to make my points short and sweet.

1. Like Jacobs, I feel the question was fair but more appropriate for a different setting. Calhoun is provided to the media by the school at a postgame press conference to answer questions about UConn’s latest win, and not about his salary. If a non-sports topic (such as his salary) was previously in the news, and the subject hadn't publicly addressed it yet, I would be OK with the question in such an environment. Asking the question in this case, however, is rude to the reporters present who are facing a nightly deadline and looking for quotes about the game they just covered.

2. Calhoun certainly could have replied “No comment” and avoided any scene, but I don’t feel his response was inappropriate. He answered the question, and then accused the photographer of not understandings all the facts — i.e. Calhoun brings a significant amount of money to the school, and by extension the state of Connecticut. (It’s also worth noting that Calhoun’s claim that the men’s basketball program brings in $12 million is based on revenue, not profit. The Hartford Courant reports the team spends at least $6.1 million.)

3. The video wasn’t even remotely outrageous. Connecticut governor M. Jodi Rell said, “I think if Coach Calhoun had the opportunity right now, he would welcome a do-over and not have that embarrassing display from last week.” Maybe my perspective has changed because Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy’s infamous rant came only last year, but I expect my “embarrassing” displays to be, well, embarrassing.

Two quotes, or not two quotes?

2009-02-22T02:29:00.000-05:00

Despite the NFL scouting combine and impending free agency, my first blog post after a lengthy hiatus was inspired by two Chicago Tribune pieces about the Chicago Bulls and the NBA trading deadline. And my interest isn't even about the story itself -- it's about the reporting.

Here's a quote from a Rick Morissey column:

"Because of the economics of the business, we could be sitting here a year from now at the trading deadline with some expiring contracts and some chips, and there may become a significant player available because a team's not going to be able to keep him," Paxson said.
"You don't know. We're looking at this as, there's a real chance given the state of the league right now that those type of deals may come about."

Here's the same quote (presumably) from a K.C. Johnson article:

"But because of the economics of the business now, we could be sitting here a year from now at the trade deadline with some expiring contracts, and there may be a significant player available because a team might not be able to keep him. There's a real chance given the state of the league now that those types of deals may come up."

We'll presume that both of these interpretations are from one quote given by Bulls general manager John Paxson, which both writers either directly transcribed and/or digitally recorded. That being said, there appears to be a reason people are keen to say that they were misquoted.

Using the first quote as a base, the second has several words that are either added or missing -- "now" "trading" "and some chips" "become" "is" "not going to" "right" "about" -- not including two intro sections that may have been excluded for stylistic reasons. That's 12 words, and the first base quote is 66 words long -- so approximately a 20 percent variance between the two.

I have noticed this phenomenon several times in the Tribune, particularly in their postgame Bears section, where the same quote may be repeated six to eight times across various stories and columns, with every piece including a slightly different recollection of the actual quote. Just as in the above example, those differences can be considered minor -- added or dropped prepositions (as long as it's not "not"), or innocuous synonyms.

This particular case stood out to me because the two quotes were situated less than six inches apart on the same page, making their differences readily apparent. As a current copy editor, and someone who has some experience reporting, I find the differences between the quotes appalling.

I'm not bothered, however, because the differences represent inaccuracies.

It's practically impossible to write down a quote with 100 percent accuracy, due to the difficulty of our brain processing past information (what they said, which you are writing down), current information (what they are saying, which you are listening to) and future information (what they will say, which you are naturally trying to predict) all at the same time.

The latter even accounts for many transcribing errors because there are common phrases that we expect people to say, which can cause reporters to record words that are never actually said. It even takes me two to four times to accurately transcribe as few as two sentences from a taped recording.

What annoys me is the fact that the Tribune sports department didn't take the time to portray the same quote in the same way. When under impending deadline, I can understand why the cross-checking process might not occur. In most cases, however, there is ample time to keep the quotes consistent, which demonstrates editorial oversight and limits accusations of fabricating quotes.

There are several journalistic philosophies about quotes, and I'm not arguing for or against any in particular. I just think that a publication should remain consistent with whichever policy they choose (which the Tribune may very well be doing by allowing their writers to have moderately free reign) and hope that the same quotes aren't represented differently out of laziness or ignorance.

Baugh, Tarkenton and Tebow

2009-02-10T03:19:00.000-05:00

Will Tim Tebow, the University of Florida's star quarterback who already has two national chapionships and a Heisman Trophy on his resume, have a successful NFL career? We won't have any idea until at least 2010, because Tebow is returning to the Gators for his senior season.

Nevertheless, recently fired Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Jon Gruden, certainly thinks so.

While answering a question about the spread offense's viability in the NFL during an interview with the Orlando Sentinel, Gruden says:

No question. The hard part is, you have to isolate the option. That's why Tim Tebow is so interesting to me. He's like Brandon Jacobs playing quarterback. He's 250 pounds. He's the strongest human being who's ever played the position. Ever. He will kick the living [expletive] out of a defensive lineman. He'll fight anybody. He is rare. Tebow is the kind of guy who could revolutionize the game. He's the 'wildcat' who can throw. Most of the teams that have the wildcat back there, it's Ronnie Brown, it's Jerious Norwood, it's whoever you want to say it is. This guy here is 250 pounds of concrete cyanide, man. And he can throw. He throws well enough at any level to play quarterback.

I think it would be fascinating to see an NFL team (most likely a bad one) decide to adopt a college-style option or spread offense, simply to see if it could gain a foothold. But, a new coach trying to solidify his career has too much to lose, and a more experienced (theoretically, successful) coach has too little to gain, so it is unlikely we will see a seismic shift in the near future.

That being said, Tebow would be in rare company if he is able to prove Gruden right and revolutionize the professional game by utilizing his skill-set. So far, only two quarterbacks have really done that: Sammy Baugh and Fran Tarkenton, both Hall-of-Famers.

Sammy Baugh, Washington Redskins (1937-1952)
Baugh was an incredible all-around athlete -- in 1943, he led the league in passing, punting and interceptions -- but he revolutionized the game by popularizing the forward pass. Before Baugh, quarterbacks were expected to hand the ball off, or run with it themselves.

But Slingin' Sammy threw the ball, and he could throw it well. His success relative to his contemporaries is reflected in the fact that he led the league in passing yards six times (tied for first with Steve Young). Baugh finished his 16-year career with 187 touchdowns and more than 21,000 passing yards.

The Washington Post's Michael Wilbon recognized Baugh's contributions in a December 19, 2008, column printed shortly after the great quarterback's death.

The nickname may have come from his prowess on the pitching mound, but it fit the way he would play the quarterback position. Benny Friedman threw the football down the field in 1928 for the NFL Detroit Wolverines and 1929 for the New York Giants, but Baugh was the first to play the position as we know it today. "Baugh demonstrated," [NFL Films president Steve] Sabol said, "that the forward pass could be an effective weapon instead of an act of desperation."

Fran Tarkenton, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants (1961-1978)
Football is a game of cycles and Tarkenton revived the rushing quarterback, which Baugh had so prominently discarded. NFL Films declared Tarkenton the top mobile quarterback of all-time, largely because he pioneered the role.

Scrambing' Fran finished his 18-year career as the top passing (47,003 yards and 342 touchdowns) and top rushing (3,673 yards, 32 touchdowns) quarterback in the NFL. Thirty years after his retirement, only three quarterbacks -- Randall Cunningham, Steve Young and Michael Vick -- have surpassed his rushing totals.

Tim Tebow, Class of 2010
Currently, every quarterback in the NFL falls into one of two categories: A pocket-passer (a la Baugh) or a scrambler (a la Tarkenton). The vast majority are the former, simply because it is hard to stay healthy outside the pocket.

When Tebow joins the NFL, he has the opportunity to blur the lines. Tebow will never be a Hall of Fame quarterback, but he has the size to withstand punishment and his versatility could make him a viable dual threat. I don't think any team will use him as a starting quarterback, but having him split time (much as he did in his freshman season behind Chris Leak) and line up in a variety of positions, could pose serious matchup problems.

Sports Illustrated's Tim Layden captures the uncertainty of the Tim Tebow experiement well in a January column, writing "The NFL is fascinated with Tebow because he represents a potential evolutionary step in offensive professional football. (Emphasis here on potential because it's all a guessing game at this point.)"

Patriots mastermind Bill Belichick is rumored to be interested in Tebow, and I think that would be the most intriguing fit. Tebow is deified in college football, but will likely never be a star in the NFL. Belichick, however, is a throwback -- he has recently playcalled drop kicks and quick kicks, and many players contribute from positions on both sides of the ball -- and the team-first attitude he espouses might be the perfect remedy if Tebow falls back to earth.

Psychology vs. Super Bowl XLIII

2009-02-03T17:42:00.001-05:00

There has been plenty of speculation in the media that Super Bowl XLIII, won by Pittsburgh 27-23 over Arizona, is the greatest Super Bowl ever. The day after the game, Sports Illustrated's Don Banks wrote "Snap judgments require making quick, rapid-fire assessments, but I think even upon further review, with lots of time to mull things over, I'd still come to the same remarkable conclusion: We just witnessed the best Super Bowl in history."

I hesitate to immediately bestow it that honor, however, while recognizing that the game was certainly an exciting one.

My main concern? The recency effect. The psychology term is used to explain the fact that people remember items at the ends of lists more clearly than those in the middle. There is also a primacy effect, which explains why items at the beginnings of lists are also remembered more readily.

A quick experiment, with answers at the bottom of this post:

Name the first three presidents. Name the last three presidents. Name the 13th through 15th presidents. Name the first three Super Bowl winners. Name the last three Super Bowl winners. Name the 13th through 15th Super Bowl winners. I can guess what set was most difficult to recall.

Essentially, it's easier to remember either sides of these lists because when remembering information, we have to start somewhere. Our brains need some sort of touchstone, and it is easy to understand why the most recent Super Bowl would be the simplest to remember. We can then work backwards from there fairly easily. (I can get through the last 15 or so, because the first Super Bowl I remember caring about was between Denver and Green Bay, in 1997).

If I gave you some more information -- like, Abraham Lincoln was the 16th president -- you will use that as a touchstone, and perhaps work backwards from there. It's much easier than starting at No. 1 and working your way up, or starting at No. 44 and working your way back.

All this to say, that I think the media is suffering from the recency effect when so quickly labeling the Steelers-Cardinals game as the best Super Bowl ever. As ESPN.com columnist Bill Simmons wrote the day after the game:

(Note to anyone playing the "greatest ever" card -- we quickly overrate the Super Bowl every time it's good. Settle down. The fourth quarter wasn't any more exciting than the Panthers-Pats game. Fitzgerald's long TD wasn't any more or less exciting than Isaac Bruce's long TD that won the Rams-Titans game. The ending wasn't any more dramatic than Bills-Giants or Niners-Bengals II. Let the record show that this game sucked for three solid quarters except for the Harrison play.)

I disagree with Simmons on the point that the game sucked for three solid quarters except for the Harrison play, and may elaborate in a later post. Simmons' broader point, however, is a good one. (He does accidentally, however, suggest that while individual pieces of this year's Super Bowl can be compared to those in past games, that the collective whole may be incomparable.)

If we could substitute any worthy candidate of "The Best Super Bowl Ever" designation with Sunday's Super Bowl, our opinions would likely change. A strong example? Imagine if we had just witnessed the Rams defeat the Titans 23-16 with Tennessee wide receiver Kevin Dyson futily reaching toward the end zone as time expired. Would that certainly not be considered the best Super Bowl ever, with the Steelers-Cardinals fourth-quarter shootout 10 years in the past?

I do need to point out that the most recent Super Bowl could indeed be the most exciting ever. Simply because it is the most recent doesn't change the nature of the game itself. I am just offering the idea that we need to approach the subject with a little more caution. I will follow my own advice, and offer up my personal opinion at a time further removed from the actual event.

Recency effect answers:
First three presidents: George Washington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson
Last three presidents: Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton
13th through 15th presidents: Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan

First three Super Bowl winners: Green Bay Packers, Packers, New York Jets
Last three Super Bowl winners: Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts
13th through 15th Super Bowl winners: Steelers, Steelers, Oakland Raiders

Super Bowl XLIII Prediction

2009-02-01T17:58:00.001-05:00

Update: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23. MVP: Steelers wide receiver Santonio Holmes (nine catches, 131 yards, game-winning touchdown). I thought I had a chance for quite the prediction when the Steelers were winning 20-16 with four minutes remaining, and James Harrison's game-changing 100-yard interception return likely enough to secure him the MVP.

I have been abdicating my blogging duties this week, and for that I apologize. Hopefully, I won't have to apologize in three hours for my Super Bowl pick.

It is certainly cliche to say, but I can see this game going either way. But in this sense -- I think it's equally as probable that the Cardinals win or that the Steelers win by 21, if they start forcing turnovers and Kurt Warner starts getting desperate.

I am a big Warner fan, and I don't think he's ever really had a bad game in the playoffs. He's played in two Super Bowls and holds first and second place for most passing yards in the Super Bowl, winning one MVP in the process.

Let's not overlook the Steelers, though. I read that they would have been favored in the Super Bowl against any team, and I think they're certainly better than the Falcons and the Eagles, and comparable to the Panthers (the three teams Arizona has defeated in the playoffs).

My pick? Pittsburgh 19, Arizona 17, with Steelers linebacker James Harrison the MVP.

Flacco's year? Quite Dilfer-esque

2009-01-26T14:55:00.000-05:00

I'm taking a break in the currently scheduled broadcast of all things Super Bowl to take a look at what would be written about if the Baltimore Ravens, instead of the Pittsburgh Steelers, had won the AFC Championship.

Heaps and bounds of credit were poured on Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco, a rookie from Delaware who became one of the few first-year signal-callers to lead his team to the postseason. At the same time, Trent Dilfer, who led the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory in 2000, is still considered the worst quarterback to win a Super Bowl.

The problem is, it's not hard to believe that Dilfer had a better season than Flacco.

I am admittedly speculating that the media would continue fawning over Flacco if he won the Super Bowl, but I have no reason to believe they would suddenly change their tune. Quite frankly, the media was unduly swayed by the fact -- and it is a fact -- that Flacco had a good season for a rookie quarterback.

But in the grand scheme of things? Flacco = Dilfer.

If you actually look at their seasons, Flacco's and Dilfer's statistical outputs -- and the team surrounding them -- are almost identical. If Dilfer gets blamed (as he probably doesn't deserve) for being a bad quarterback, why isn't Flacco also just a game manager? If Flacco gets praised (as he probably doesn't deserve) for being a good quarterback, why isn't Dilfer also deified?

First things first. Dilfer wasn't even the leading passer on the 2000 Ravens. Tony Banks passed for a team-high 1,578 yards that season, but was benched for inconsistent play four games into a famous five-game stretch in which Baltimore scored zero offensive touchdowns (they won twice).

Dilfer replaced Banks in Week 8, and started the rest of the season. After an initial loss, he led the Ravens to 11 consecutive wins, including a Super Bowl victory.

Yes, the Ravens' defense in 2000 was one of the best in NFL history, allowing the fewest points (165) ever in a 16-game season. Including the playoffs, they allowed 10 or fewer points in 15 out of 20 games and posted four shutouts.

But therein lies the point -- the 2008 Ravens were similarly constructed.

The current iteration of Baltimore's defense was not nearly as historically dominant -- they allowed 244 points -- but they finished third in the league in points allowed and second in yards allowed. (The 2000 Ravens defense finished first in points allowed and second in yards allowed).

And this season, the Ravens relied even more on the running game than in 2000. The 2008 Ravens ran for 2,376 yards on 592 carries and attempted only 433 passes, while the 2000 Ravens racked up 2,199 yards on 511 carries and attempted 504 passes.

When all is said and done, Dilfer had more weight put upon his shoulders offensively (although he played in half as many games) yet produced similar numbers to Flacco. Dilfer went 134-for-226 (59.3%) for 1,502 yards, 12 TDs and 11 INTs to receive a 76.6 passer rating. Flacco went 257-for-428 (60.0%) for 2,971 yards, 14 TDs and 12 INTs to receive an 80.3 passer rating. When you include their playoff performances, Dilfer has the better overall passer rating.

Let's not be naive. Flacco played well for a rookie, but no better than Dilfer.

Nota bene:

- Although passer rating is by no means a perfect judge, and is skewed positively toward the modern game, it's worth noting that Dilfer's regular season passer rating was better than nine other Super Bowl winning quarterbacks: Eli Manning (73.9), Phil Simms (74.6), Jim Plunkett (72.9), Terry Bradshaw (55.2), Bob Griese (71.6), Johnny Unitas (65.1), Len Dawson (69.9), Joe Namath (72.1) and Bart Starr (64.4).

- Bradshaw's first Super Bowl victory with the Steelers is an astounding parallel to Dilfer. He didn't start until midway through the season and finished with average statistics -- 67-for-148 (45.3%), 785 yards, 7 TDs and 8 INTs for a 55.2 passer rating. I guess Dilfer needs to come out of retirement and win three more Super Bowls to have his season purged from our collective memories.

Top 20 playoffs for wide receivers

2009-01-22T19:44:00.002-05:00

Update: Larry Fitzgerald caught seven passes for 127 yards and two touchdowns in the Cardinals 27-23 loss to the Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII, becoming the only player to record 100-plus receiving yards in four consecutive playoff games. His postseason totals -- 30 receptions, 546 yards and seven touchdowns -- are all NFL records, and enough for me to propel him into first place on this list. If Arizona would have won the Super Bowl, Fitzgerald would likely have been MVP (quarterback Kurt Warner certainly would have been considered) after an incredible fourth-quarter performance in which he gave Arizona its first lead of the game.

Update (4/16/11): I decided to see if any performances from the last two playoffs qualified for my list. Green Bay's Greg Jennings had pretty strong 2010 postseason numbers -- 21 catches, 302 yards, two touchdowns (both in the Super Bowl victory) -- but he had the luxury of four games and I never got the sense his performance was dominant. Minnesota's Sidney Rice (10 catches, 186 yards and four touchdowns in two games) and Indianapolis' Pierre Garcon (21 catches, 251 yards and two touchdowns in three games) both made legitimate arguments in 2009. I may reconsider in the future or expand the list to 25, but I'm not convinced yet. That said, I am going to move Fitzgerald to the top (he was originally No. 2) and I have to actually put Tom Fears (16 catches, 334 yards and three touchdowns in two games in 1950) on the list.

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is having an outstanding postseason -- he has 23 catches for a playoff-record 419 yards and five touchdowns -- with the Super Bowl still to play. He is one of four players (Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Tom Fears) to have three consecutive playoff games with 100-plus receiving yards, and a blog post on NFL.com documents exactly how strong Fitzgerald's start to his playoff career has been.

I thought it would be interesting to compile the other great wide receiver performances in NFL postseason history, so I compiled a completely unscientific top 20 list. I assessed no direct penalty for losing (because wide receivers don't play defense, etc.) although not winning prohibited a deeper postseason run. I rewarded consistency throughout the playoffs, but also weighted any performances in the Super Bowl and conference championships.

21. Wes Welker, New England Patriots, 2007
27 catches, 213 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Welker tied the record for most receptions in a postseason, and became the first to accomplish the feat in three games.

20. Ricky Sanders, Washington Redskins, 1987
15 catches, 285 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Sanders set a Super Bowl record (since passed by Jerry Rice) with 193 receiving yards, scoring twice on nine receptions.

19. Sterling Sharpe, Green Bay Packers, 1993
11 catches, 229 yards, four touchdowns
Two games, lost divisional round
In his only two career playoff games, Sharpe recorded 100-plus yards in each game and scored four of Green Bay's five offensive touchdowns.

18. Michael Irvin, Dallas Cowboys, 1992
18 catches, 288 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Irvin was consistent -- recording six catches for 80-plus yards in each game -- but saved his best performance for last, scoring twice in the Super Bowl.

17. John Stallworth, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1979
12 catches, 259 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Stallworth caught one touchdown in each game, including a 73-yard score in the Steelers' fourth Super Bowl victory of the 1970s.

16. Antonio Freeman, Green Bay Packers, 1997
17 catches, 307 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Freeman picked up steam in each game, culminating in a nine-catch, 126-yard, two-touchdown performance in the Super Bowl.

15. James Lofton, Buffalo Bills, 1990
13 catches, 323 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Lofton caught 12 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns in the two games before the Super Bowl, where he was limited to one 61-yard reception.

14. Isaac Bruce, St. Louis Rams, 1999
13 catches, 316 yards, two touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Both of Bruce's touchdowns were 70-plus yards, including the game winner with less than three minutes remaining in the Super Bowl.

13. Randy Moss, Minnesota Vikings, 1998
14 catches, 315 yards, three touchdowns
Two games, lost divisional game
Fitzgerald was still a ballboy for the Vikings when Moss caught two touchdowns of 40-plus yards and picked up 188 yards in the divisional loss.

12. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2003
18 catches, 404 yards, three touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl
Smith picked up 298 yards in two games and his 69-yard touchdown catch on the first play of double overtime sent the Panthers to the NFC Championship.

11. Lynn Swann, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1978
13 catches, 274 yards, three touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
In addition to his seven-reception, 124-yard, one-touchdown performance, Swann made one of the most acrobatic catches in Super Bowl history.

10. Tom Fears, Los Angeles Rams, 1950
16 catches, 334 yards, three touchdowns
Two games, lost NFL championship
Fears scored three consecutive touchdowns (43, 68 and 27 yards) and compiled 198 yards to lift the Rams to the title game.

9. John Stallworth, Pittsburgh Steelers, 1978
14 catches, 278 yards, four touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Stallworth scored in every game, including twice in the Super Bowl, and had a 10-catch, 158-yard performance in the divisional round.

8. Charlie Brown, Washington Redskins, 1983
14 catches, 401 yards, one touchdown
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Brown set the record for most receiving yards in one postseason (he is now fourth all-time), and averaged 28.6 yards per reception.

7. Andre Reed, Buffalo Bills, 1993
19 catches, 313 yards, three touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl
Reed caught three second-half touchdowns in the NFL's best comeback, and his 151 receiving yards in the Super Bowl are the most for any losing player.

6. Anthony Carter, Dallas Cowboys, 1987
23 catches, 391 yards, two touchdowns (1 catch, 1 return)
Three games, lost conference championship
Carter's 227-yard performance in the divisional round set a playoff mark that stood for 11 years, and he added an 87-yard punt return in the wild-card game.

5. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers, 2005
27 catches, 335 yards, five touchdowns (3 catch, 1 rush, 1 return)
Three games, lost Super Bowl
Smith set a playoff record for most catches, recorded a 12-catch, 218-yard receiving performance and became the only player with a receiving, rushing and punt return touchdown in the same postseason.

4. Fred Biletnikoff, Oakland Raiders, 1968
14 catches, 370 yards, four touchdowns
Two games, lost conference championship
Biletnikoff's seven catches for 190 yards and a touchdown in the conference championship was his worst performance of the postseason. He had seven for 180 yards and three touchdowns -- of 24, 44 and 54 yards -- one week prior.

3. Jerry Rice, San Francisco 49ers, 1989
19 catches, 318 yards, five touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Rice is the only player to catch three touchdowns in a Super Bowl (he tied his mark in the 1994 playoffs), catching seven passes for 148 yards. He previously scored twice, including a 73-yard touchdown in the divisional round.

2. Jerry Rice, San Francisco 49ers, 1988
21 catches, 409 yards, six touchdowns
Three games, won Super Bowl
Although Fitzgerald broke his postseason yardage record, Rice still has the most receiving touchdowns in a postseason, most receiving yards (215) in a Super Bowl, and is tied for most receptions (11) in a Super Bowl.

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals, 2008
30 catches, 546 yards, seven touchdowns
Four games, lost Super Bowl

Fitzgerald has set the postseason record for most receiving yards, recorded two games of 150-plus receiving yards and caught three touchdowns in the first half of the NFC Championship to send Arizona to its first Super Bowl.

Nota bene:
- Jerry Rice (Nos. 2 and 3), Steve Smith (Nos. 5 and 11) and John Stallworth (Nos. 9 and 16) are the only wide receivers to make my top 20 list twice.
- NFC teams have a 13 to 7 edge over AFC teams in the number of representatives. The Pittsburgh Steelers are represented three times, while the Green Bay Packers, Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers are all represented twice.
- Sixteen of the 20 players advanced to the Super Bowl -- 8 won, 7 lost and Fitzgerald's Arizona Cardinals face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Feb. 1.

Sorry, Cardinals -- first Super Bowls dismal

2009-01-20T16:51:00.001-05:00

Update: The Cardinals came close, but couldn't end a six-game streak of franchises losing their first Super Bowl appearances. Pittsburgh prevailed 27-23, winning in the franchise's eighth Super Bowl trip.

It has been well documented that the Arizona Cardinals are making the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance, leaving only five teams (Detroit, Cleveland, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Houston) to never win their conference championship.

Yet how did the other 26 teams do in their first-ever Super Bowl appearance? Surprisingly, to me at least, not well. I will preface this by saying it seems like the results should be about 50-50 simply because the historical background of a franchise shouldn't impact the very specific events of any given season.

I might have to reconsider that idea, though, after running the numbers.

First-time Super Bowl participants are 8-18 in the big game, a miserable .307 winning percentage that grows even worse once eliminating meetings between two teams making their first Super Bowl appearances (by necessity, one of those had to win and one had to lose, so the data is not very valuable). There have been four such meetings, so the more reliable data shows a record of 4-14, a .222 winnning percentage.

The four first-time Super Bowl teams to beat a more "experienced" franchise? The 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Minnesota Vikings (third appearance), the 1986 New York Giants beat the Denver Broncos (second appearance), the 2000 Baltimore Ravens beat the New York Giants (third appearance) and the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Oakland Raiders (fifth appearance).

Although the sample size is admittedly too small for any real statistical conclusions (I am tempted to analyze the data from the other three major professional sports to fix this), history doesn't bode well for the Cardinals, who face a Steelers team making a record-tying eighth Super Bowl appearance.

Live-blogging the AFC Championship

2009-01-18T19:04:00.000-05:00

In order for my post not to grow from gigantic to gargantuan, I'm making a separate one for the AFC Championship game. I'll try to learn from my initial venture, and put the most recent updates at the top. And, I didn't really realize the game started at 5:30 so I missed the first half of the first quarter while eating dinner. Sorry!

Steelers 23, Ravens 14
Final
As I'll try to explore later, Joe Flacco did not have a very good season in my opinion. Just because he's a rookie, I don't really see the need to pretend that he is a future Hall of Famer. When the Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2001, pundits considered Trent Dilfer the worst Super Bowl quarterback ever, even though I'm sure his statistics are comparable (mediocre, at best) to Flacco this season.

That being said, Flacco is just a rookie. It takes time to get used the NFL, and I read a revealing explanation somewhere that said Flacco has essentially played two consecutive college seasons this year because he has played 19 games. Roethlisberger lost his first conference championship game, in his first season, but has since won the Super Bowl and is now going back for his second appearance.

That's all for tonight, but I'll try to post several times this week.

Steelers 23, Ravens 14
Fourth quarter, 4:00
Baltimore made a determined effort to block the extra-point attempt, because now it's a two possession game. The atmosphere on the field, in the stadium, and in the broadcasting booth is somber during the final minutes after Ravens running back Willis McGahee was carted off with what appears to be a serious injury.

Steelers 16, Ravens 14
Fourth quarter, 12:00
That opening reverse -- that's an actual reverse; what you typically see is an end-around -- was exactly what the Ravens needed for a spark to put together a touchdown drive. Polamulu jumped over the lines again, but Ravens running back Willis McGahee snuck to the outside and ended the play as one of the few players on the field still standing.

Steelers 16, Ravens 7
Fourth quarter, 15:00
I really am not biased against defense, but it is admittedly harder to write about than the offensive side of the ball. I'll lay some blame on television, which focuses on the offense, and some on myself. Now that it's a two-possession game, the Ravens really need to get points of some sort on their next drive. Neither team has really been able to run the ball, so Baltimore shouldn't be too afraid of Pittsburgh running out the clock, but time is not to their advantage.

Steelers 13, Ravens 7
Third quarter, 10:00
It's still anybody's game, and was that really unexpected? Both regular-season meetings between the teams were close, and this game remains within one possession. My one prediction? Ben Roethlisberger has extended plays with his feet, but he's going to throw an interception or lose a fumble by being less aware of his surroundings at least once during the remainder of the game. He almost did on the latest sack, and then gained the presence of mind to go down willingly.

Steelers 13, Ravens 7
Halftime
Pittsburgh definitely left some points on the field at the end of the half with some bad clock management. That's quite the faux pas in any game, particularly one that will likely be low scoring.

Steelers wide receiver partially made up for his dropped pass with a devastating block a few plays later -- the rookie is clearly learning from Hines Ward, who is known as the best blocking wide receiver in the league.

Steelers 13, Ravens 0
Second quarter, 14:00
There's one such big play. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger kept another play alive with his feet, and although the coverage was excellent, everything fell into place during Santonio Holmes' touchdown run. The blocks downfield by his fellow wide receivers weren't excellent, but their effort caused enough distractions.

Steelers 6, Ravens 0
Second quarter, 15:00
Steelers safety Troy Polamalu might have been the first player in NFL history to make a tackle while being completely suspended in the air. His efforts on both third- and fourth-down stops were largely cosmetic, but they embody the attitude of the defense.

This game will most likely remain low-scoring, so it could very well be one big play -- a punt return, long reception or blocked field goal -- that makes the difference. And although we like to unfairly weight plays that occur in the fourth quarter, that play can come at any time in the game, and provide some important momentum.

Steelers 6, Ravens 0
First quarter, 2:00
Baltimore only has eight yards of offense as rookie quarterback Joe Flacco has struggled, going 1-for-7 with an interception so far. Pittsburgh's offense doesn't look great statistically but it has been efficient enough to drive down the field. Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis makes the big play the Ravens needed, forcing a fumble.

Steelers 6, Ravens 0
First quarter, 6:30
What an interesting situation to see Steelers coach Mike Tomlin throw the challenge flag, only to be pre-empted by Ravens coach John Harbaugh. Great call by Harbaugh. What seemed to be a Steelers touchdown, or their ball at the 1-yard-line turned into another field goal attempt.

The CBS announcers didn't seem aware of this, but Bill Carrolo was providing information to another official at the instant replay booth to make sure the call wouldn't be misrepresented once the referee returned to the field of play, a problem that occurred when Pittsburgh beat San Diego 11-10 in the regular season.

Live-blogging the NFC Championship

2009-01-18T15:03:00.000-05:00

Correction: Kurt Warner has actually had three games with perfect regular season passer ratings -- I missed his 2000 performance on first glance. Peyton Manning holds the record with four, and Ben Roethlisberger also has three.

Hello to the rare RSS feeds out there that get this blog's posts. I'll be updating throughout the day as I watch the NFC and AFC conference championships, two of the few games I will get to watch all season because of my work schedule. The Cardinals host the Eagles, with kickoff imminent, and the Steelers host the Ravens.

NFC Championship: Cardinals vs. Eagles
Cardinals 0, Eagles 0
First quarter, 10:00
Arizona's first third-down scenario sets the tone, and says everything about the Cardinals offense. Facing a third-and-1, Kurt Warner lines up in a shotgun formation with three wide receivers. Eschewing the run, Larry Fitzgerald catches a short pass on a crossing pattern and picks up 19 yards. Arizona will live, and die, by the pass.

From a similar formation a few plays later, Edgerrin James picks up a first down on a 16-yard draw. That's the plan for the Cardinals, using the pass to set up the run.

Cardinals 7, Eagles 0
First quarter, 9:30
Picture perfect. Fitzgerald scored on another drag route, a similar play from his earlier first down and last week's diving touchdown against the Carolina Panthers. The Cardinals clearly couldn't have asked for a better opening drive: Warner went 4 for 4 and James picked up 33 yards on the ground on four carries.

Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
First quarter, 4:45
Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb, who showed some agility with a 21-yard run on the Eagles' opening drive, has one 100-yard rushing game in 14 postseason starts. Arizona's James, a running back, only has two in 11 postseason games.

Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
First quarter, 2:00
McNabb = bad pass. Aaron Francisco = good tip drill. Francisco = good return. DeSean Jackson = good hustle. Francisco = bad fumble. Jon Runyan = good recovery. Jackson did an excellent job of not giving up after the interception, even running around defenders-turned-blockers in order to sneak back into the play, forcing the fumble.

Cardinals 7, Eagles 3
Second quarter, 13:30
Philadelphia is content picking up one first down at a time, and it's not a bad strategy to run (or short pass) down the clock when you are facing a potentially explosive offense. Arizona was fourth in the NFL in scoring offense in the regular season, averaging 26.7 points per game. Philadelphia, however, wasn't much worse, finishing sixth with an average of 26.0 points per game.

Cardinals 14, Eagles 3
Second quarter, 13:20
Yikes. Arizona obviously didn't want to have Philadelphia stick around, pulling out a trick play that worked to perfection. Unlike Fox announcer Troy Aikman, I agree on the roughing the passer call -- Warner had released the ball several seconds before getting hit. Larry Fitzgerald is definitely making the case that he is the best wide receiver in the league (I would also throw Houston's Andre Johnson into the discussion). Fitzgerald now has nine career games with two touchdown receptions, but the five-year veteran has never had three in one game.

Cardinals 14, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 9:00
Don't completely discount Philadelphia's field goals. They would obviously rather score touchdowns, but putting points of any type on the board keeps their heads in the game, and maintains pressure on Arizona to continue scoring.

Cardinals 21, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 3:00
And there is Fitzgerald's first three-touchdown performance, in one half no less. It is not exaggeration to say that we are witnessing one of the greatest postseasons by a wide receiver in NFL history, and I am anxious to investigate that after the game. The fade to Fitzgerald on first down is a great call because if Warner sees that there isn't anything there, he will just throw the ball too high knowing that he has two (if not three) more downs to work with.

Warner is showing off that quick release that infatuated the nation during his Cinderella rookie season in 1998. Honed within the small confines of the Arena Football League's playing field, his ability to get rid of the ball quickly is a wonderful asset used to expose the holes left by blitzing defenders.

Cardinals 21, Eagles 6
Second quarter, 2:00
That's a tough, tough call for Arizona because it certainly seems like they should have possession of the ball. It's interesting to me that the officials stuck to what they felt was the correct call instead of erring on the side of caution. They ruled that the ball touched a Philadelphia player and then went out of bounds, ending the play and making the apparent recovery nonreviewable. If they had ruled that the ball stayed in bounds, it would have kept the play reviewable, but would force Philadelphia to challenge the call.

The Fox announcers just said that Warner has a perfect passer rating (158.3) in the first half. His career best in the postseason is a 143.0 passer rating in a 49-37 divisional win over the Minnesota Vikings in 2000, a game in which he threw for 391 yards and five touchdowns. Warner had 'perfect" regular-season games in 1999, 2000 and earlier this season. He is ranked fourth in career passer rating, but note that the statistic has been hijacked by the differences in the modern passing game -- 19 of the top 24 players on the list are active.

Cardinals 24, Eagles 6
Halftime
Some quick tidbits: Nobody has ever recorded four receiving touchdowns in a playoff game, and Larry Fitzgerald joins a list of 10 other players who have caught three -- Jerry Rice accomplished the feat three separate times, including twice in the Super Bowl. As previewed in an earlier post, Fitzgerald has also become the fourth receiver with consecutive 100-plus receiving yards in three consecutive playoff games.

The Eagles have not played terribly in the fist half, but it appears the Cardinals have once again been inspired by a raucous crowd not accustomed to the playoffs. Arizona only had nine wins in the regular season, but six of them were at home.

Also, the Eagles score at halftime in McNabb's five conference championship games? 17-10 lead in 2002, 17-10 deficit in 2003, 7-3 deficit in 2004, 14-10 lead in 2005 and 24-6 deficit in 2008. Their only win (so far) came in 2005.

Cardinals 24, Eagles 6
Third quarter, 12:00
Things are spiraling out of control for the Eagles, who wasted a couple of nice receptions and first downs with a fumble by McNabb on a nice cornerback blitz. It's hard to even find something good to say about Philadelphia at this point. Arizona has been utterly dominant with no real mistakes, making anything positive that Philadelphia manages seem drab in comparison.

Cardinals 24, Eagles 13
Third quarter, 4:00
A nice catch by Eagles tight end Brent Celek for Philadelphia's first touchdown. After 26 catches in a 16-game regular season, Celek has 17 catches in three playoff games (he has a team-high eight so far today). Most tight ends serve as security blankets in the passing game, so it says a lot that Celek has almost half of McNabb's completions today.

That being said, this game is now a lot close on the scoreboard than it feels. The Eagles are still very much alive, and the Cardinals would bode well to reinstitute their running game and put together a time-consuming drive in response.

Cardinals 24, Eagles 13
Third quarter, 3:45
That was the worst nightmare for the Cardinals. They went three-and-out, took no time off the clock and provided the Eagles some energy by allowing Warner to get pressured into two incompletions before being sacked on third down. Arizona has negative four yards in the second half, and needs to focus on picking up first downs.

Cardinals 24, Eagles 19
Fourth quarter, 15:00
When was the last time you saw the best offensive player on your team -- Celek, now with nine receptions, 78 yards and two touchdowns -- line up to block for the extra point? It didn't seem to matter, as Akers missed his first extra point of the season. As anyone who has seen Ace Ventura: Pet Detective knows, the fact that the laces were in on the hold certainly didn't help as Akers pulled the ball right.

I support the decision not to go for the two-point conversion because there is still a full quarter to play, and it's only a one-possession game. And let's not ignore the humorous block by Hank Baskett on the Celek touchdown -- he took out two defenders with one push near the goal line.

And, no, that was not Warner's first reception of his career. He caught a pass, presumably from himself, for zero yards in a 2005 game with the Cardinals.

Eagles 25, Cardinals 24
Fourth quarter, 11:00
Wow. Philadelphia has done everything right in the second half, mixing the pass and the run while still taking the occasional shot downfield. It worked that time -- McNabb had so much time after rolling out that the entire offensive line was literally standing still on the opposite side of the field when he threw the ball. Nice concentration by Jackson, a rookie, on the touchdown catch.

It might sound hypocritical, but I do support the decision to go for the two-point conversion after this touchdown because the difference between a two- and three-point lead at this stage is much "greater" than a five- and four-point deficit earlier.

Cardinals 32, Eagles 25
Fourth quarter, 3:00
What a game this has turned out to be, and I'm sure Fox is breathing a sigh of relief after thinking they would be televising a blowout. The Cardinals were content running down the clock and taking the field goal if necessary, but ended up getting a touchdown on a safe screen pass. The two-point conversion is definitely the correct call at this stage in the game -- up by five with less than three minutes remaining.

And, I don't think Arizona should have attempted the fourth-and-1 near midfield earlier in the drive. At the time, there was more than seven minutes remaining in the game, plenty of time for one -- if not two -- defensive stops.

As the Fox graphic showed, Fitzgerald also passed Rice for the most receiving yards in a single postseason on this drive. Without him, it's hard to believe Arizona would be in this position. They would probably still be in the playoffs, because they played in weak division, but he is a legitimate game-changer.

Cardinals 32, Eagles 25
Final
McNabb did a good job trying to pick up a few yards on third down, knowing that they would go for it on fourth, but defensive pressure caused him to throw the ball behind Baskett. On fourth down, Curtis spent more effort trying to get a pass interference flag thrown than actually catching the ball, one of my biggest pet peeves. I am kind of surprised that pass interference wasn't called -- I don't think it necessarily was, but I think officials tend to call it, especially in these situations.

It was a terrible decision on the part of Darnell Dockett, the Cardinal who recovered the fumble on Philadelphia's last-gasp lateral-fest, to not go directly to the ground. I understand that he was excited but it's rude to try to score a last-second touchdown, and most importantly, incredibly stupid. A fumble by him recovered by Philadelphia for a touchdown would go down as possibly the most foolish play in sports history.

But that's nitpicking. Arizona played a better game than Philadelphia (barely) and Warner, not McNabb, drastically increased his Hall of Fame chances. Many more, coherent, thoughts on the NFC Championship at a later date.

Does Hall of Fame await Dungy?

2009-01-16T20:41:00.001-05:00

Update: Added the thoughts of Sports Illustrated's Peter King, who responded to a question about Dungy's Hall of Fame chances in his Tuesday Morning Quarterback mailbag.
Update: Added a chart detailing the coaching records of Hall of Fame coaches.

Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy retired Monday after a 31-year NFL career as both a player and a coach. He leaves with an impressive coaching resume: one Super Bowl victory, six consecutive seasons with 12-plus wins and 10 consecutive postseason berths, a post-merger record.

But will he make the Hall of Fame?

Dungy doesn't have instant Hall of Fame credentials -- he didn't rack up 200-plus wins, he didn't win three-plus NFL titles and he didn't fundamentally change the game. Coaches with those numbers to their credit, like Don Shula, Curly Lambeau and Tom Landry, are inducted almost immediately.

Other coaches with similar pedigrees to Dungy, however, were eventually inducted into Canton after a lengthy waiting period. George Allen was posthumously elected in 2002, 25 years after he retired, and John Madden didn't get in until 2006, 29 years after he left the game.

I haven't decided yet if I think Dungy should make the Hall of Fame, but I think he probably will. I'll explain why by quickly looking at the three criteria I think voters use: On-field performance, long-term impact on the NFL, and to a lesser degree, personal intangibles.

On-field performance

Dungy coached the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 1996 to 2001 and the Indianapolis Colts from 2002 to 2008. He finished his 13-year head coaching career with a 139-69-0 regular season record and a 9-10 postseason record, including a victory in Super Bowl XLI. He also won Super Bowl XIII as a role player for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but of the 21 coaches inducted in the Hall of Fame, only the six pre-modern inductees (before 1946) are also recognized for their playing careers.

The Indianapolis Star chronicles how Dungy's coaching record ranks among the best ever in terms of career wins.

Of the other nine coaches with the top regular-season winning percentage, only two (Blanton Collier and George Siefert) aren't already in the Hall of Fame. Of the 13 coaches with 10-plus playoff appearances, only six aren't (Marty Schottenheimer, Mike Holmgren, Dungy, Chuck Knox, Bill Parcells, Bill Cowher). Of the 21 coaches with 130-plus wins only 10 aren't (Schottenheimer, Noll, Dan Reeves, Knox, Parcells, Holmgren, Cowher, Mike Shanahan, Dungy, Bill Belichick).

And many of those coaches are contemporaries, some of whom will certainly be inducted. But that is part of Dungy's problem. Because he is not a no-doubt-about-it Hall of Famer, his candidacy will be weighed against those of Belichick (3 NFL titles), Parcells (2), Shanahan (2) Holmgren (1), Shanahan (1), Cowher (1) and Schottenheimer (200-plus wins), who all have equally -- if not more -- compelling arguments.

Dungy, however, should be recognized for turning around the fortunes of two franchises that were among the laughingstocks of the league before he arrived. Tampa Bay had only two winning seasons among its first 20, but five during Dungy's seven years with the team. After moving to Indianapolis in 1984, the Colts only had two 10-win seasons in the 17 years before Dungy arrived -- they went seven-for-seven after. (It should be noted that all nine of those seasons came under the tutelage of future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning.)

Long-term NFL impact

This phenomena explains why the Hall of Fame is weighted to pre-merger coaches. By definition, they had the greatest potential to impact the future of the NFL, and several did by introducing things now considered basic -- the forward pass, the two-platoon system, film study, etc.

Nothing that crucial will be attached to Dungy's legacy, but his adaptation of the Cover 2 defense, and his low-key coaching attitude has already made an influence thanks to his coaching tree -- four of the 32 current NFL head coaches served as an assistant under Dungy. Most symbolic for many of the voters may be the fact that Dungy is the first black coach to win a Super Bowl.

Intangibles

This is where Dungy shines above the rest of his competition. Because media members vote on Hall of Famers, having a congenial relationship with the press can become the tipping point -- for or against -- a candidate's induction.

Upon Dungy's retirement, members of the media -- which tend to be critical, if not cynical -- posted opinions en masse that Dungy was a great person regardless of his success as a football coach. Impervious to an NFL growing more chaotic by the season, Dungy made time for his family, his players, and yes, the media during his entire career, and his friendly demeanor should serve him well when voting commences.

Sports Illustrated's Peter King, one of the 44 voters for the Hall of Fame (like Supreme Court justices, they cannot be removed -- they simply retire or die) had this to say about Dungy's chances in a recent column:

THE WORST THING TO DO IS CALL SOMEONE A LOCK, BUT I WOULD LEAN TOWARD DUNGY.
The Dungy case is very interesting, and I think the pioneering aspect of it is significant -- very significant. As a coach, Dungy has a good case -- 10 straight years of directing his team to the playoffs (both with a quarterback and without one), nine of his last 10 years winning double-digits, a Super Bowl title. As a pioneer, being the first black coach to win a Super Bowl is an important historic accomplishment in a league in which two-thirds of the players are black. For too long the league lagged far behind in the hiring of minorities to be head coaches. He's a beacon, and so many coaches from the NFL to Pop Warner look up to him as their primary role model. It's not quite Namath willing the AFL to a Super Bowl win and pro football equality, but I think it's close.

Wednesday Morning Quarterback

2009-01-14T02:08:00.001-05:00

I'm working on a post about the Hall of Fame chances of now-retired coach Tony Dungy, but this will have to do in the meantime.

For the most part, I agree with Gregg Easterbrook, who writes a weekly column at ESPN.com during the football season called "Tuesday Morning Quarterback." I do want to point out a portion from his most recent column, however, with which I vehemently disagree.

Sour Play of the Week: The atmosphere was electric at Long Playing Field, the crowd raucous as it expected to watch the AFC first seed notch the first victory of its Super Bowl run. The Titans staged a solid early drive and scored to take a 6-0 lead, just as Tennessee had scored first in 2001, when Baltimore came to Nashville and upset the favored home team in the divisional round. Tennessee lined up for the extra point, and Baltimore jumped offsides. Half the distance moved the ball to the 1, whence the PAT was kicked. But wait -- now the ball is on the 1-yard line, go for two! Tennessee rushed well on the day. There's only 1 yard to cover, go for two! Had Jeff Fisher gone for two and taken an 8-0 lead, it would have communicated the message that Tennessee would play all-out to win. Even a missed deuce try would have communicated this message. Instead the Titans played cautious, and that would become the theme of the team's loss -- see below.

I'm all for breaking trends because it's one way to gain a competitive advantage in football, and because I think the status quo is not always the correct strategy. Easterbrook makes these points often, and well. In this case, however, I think his analysis of the Titans' decision is shortsighted.

In the regular season, the Tennessee Titans (14.6 points per game) and Baltimore Ravens (15.2) finished second and third, respectively, for average defensive points allowed. Both teams were also among the lowest-scoring offenses -- Titans, 23.4; Ravens, 24.1 -- that qualified for the playoffs.

All this to say that the divisional playoff game between the Titans and Ravens was expected to be a low-scoring affair. Tennessee beat Baltimore 13-10 in a regular-season meeting, and the Ravens only allowed nine points in their wild-card victory over the Dolphins. That the playoff game, which was won by Baltimore 13-10, was also low-scoring is convenient but ultimately irrelevant.

If the Titans attempted a two-point conversion once a penalty moved the ball to the 1-yard-line (and the odds don't increase in their favor that much, anyway), they would be taking an unnecessary amount of risk.

Making it, to go up 8-0, would be nice but wouldn't catch Baltimore off guard for more than the initial play. Missing it, however, would potentially be disastrous in such a low-scoring game. It would be entirely foolish to lead 6-0 only to lose 7-6, 10-9 or 14-13 -- three highly potential outcomes considering an expected dearth in scoring opportunities for both teams.

Unless a coach has made the decision to go for two-point conversions after every touchdown (which I think is a tenable position), it makes no sense to attempt two-point conversions until at least midway through the third quarter. By doing so earlier, you are providing your opponent extra information despite having a miniscule amount of information regarding the final score. In this case, the risk is exacerbated by the likelihood that the game would end up with a low final score.

Divisional round, all at once

2009-01-11T23:16:00.000-05:00

Update: Posted Donovan McNabb's career record in conference championship games.

We'll go with some quick hits for this Divisional Playoff weekend:

Baltimore 13, Tennessee 10

1. Ray Lewis's helmet-popping hit on Ahmard Hall was a good reminder why Lewis will eventually be in the Hall of Fame. Lewis didn't celebrate, perhaps because Hall still picked up an important first down in terms of field position, but his jarring shot was a poignant image for the leader of the Baltimore Ravens' defense.

Lewis is a two-time Defensive Player of the Year (2000, 2003), six-time first-team All-Pro (I trust journalists' opinions more than fans' and Pro Bowlers only represent their conference), and the 2000 Super Bowl MVP in a season when he carried the Ravens on his back (with help from Jamal Lewis).

2. One of my biggest pet peeves is quarterbacks who call timeouts at inopportune times, only to escape the ire of their misguided coaches.

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco called a timeout to avoid a five-yard penalty for delay of game when facing a third-and-18 in the middle of the first quarter. I don't have exact numbers, but the difference in probability between converting a third-and-18 and a third-and-23 has to be negligible. Timeouts, however, are extremely valuable because they greatly increase the probability of scoring at the end of halftime. (Wow, that would be an extensive research project)

If I was a coach, I would tell my quarterback to always take the delay-of-game penalty unless it a critical juncture of the game (i.e. likely leading directly to points): Only on third or fourth down, or on the edge of field goal range or the end zone. Timeouts should be used liberally on defense, however, because one blown coverage can result in a touchdown.

You can call my complaint void because Flacco threw a 48-yard touchdown to Derrick Mason on the play following the timeout, but we should make our decisions based on probabilities, not post hoc information.

Cardinals 33, Panthers 13

1. If Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald breaks the 100-yard receiving mark in the NFC Championship game, he will join Tom Fears, Jerry Rice and Randy Moss as the only players to post three consecutive playoff games of 100 or more receiving yards.

Fitzgerald caught eight balls for 166 yards, including an impressive diving touchdown, against the Panthers. In his playoff debut against the Falcons, he caught six balls for 101 yards and a touchdown.

2. You can add Carolina's Jake Delhomme to my list of miserable quarterbacking performances in the playoffs. Sports Illustrated's Peter King suggests that considering the circumstances, Delhomme's six-turnover day may have been the worst.

Goat of the Week
Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina. Has any quarterback had a worse playoff game than Delhomme's five-interception, one-lost-fumble disaster Saturday night against Arizona? Unlikely. Brett Favre, in the 2001 playoffs, threw six picks against the Rams, but in that game, Favre was just throwing balls up throughout the second half trying to hit the lottery. Delhomme went 17 of 34 for 205 yards, with one garbage-time touchdown and the five picks, and only one of the turnovers came with the game legitimately out of hand. Here's the amazing thing: You watch all five of those interceptions, and you'll see that every one was thrown into something like double-coverage. "To put into words, I can't," Delhomme said. "I am at a loss for words. I had a hand in six turnovers ... I should get the blame. It's inexcusable."

Eagles 23, Giants 11

1. After missing only three field goals during his Pro-Bowl worthy regular season, New York kicker John Carney missed two against the Eagles in the wind tunnel known as Giants Stadium.

Carney did make three field goals on Sunday, but both of his misses could have swung the momentum of the game because they would have given the Giants the lead. His unfortunate timing following a 35-for-38 performance in the regular season (the best field goal percentage of his 21-year career) reminds me a lot of Gary Anderson's wayward kick in the 1998 playoffs.

Anderson had the first perfect regular season in NFL history, making all 35 field goal attempts and all 59 extra point attempts for the 15-1 Vikings, but missed a 38-yard field goal with two minutes remaining in the NFC Championship game against the Falcons. The Vikings failed to take a two-possession lead, and the Falcons ended up winning in overtime.

Speaking of Anderson, Eagles kicker David Akers broke his record on Sunday by converting his 17th and 18th consecutive field goal attempts in the postseason.

2. I wrote earlier about Donovan McNabb's success in the postseason. Now that he is prepared to start his fifth conference championship game (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008), where does that total rank in NFL history?

Joe Montana has seven appearances, going 4-3 and winning four Super Bowls.
Terry Bradshaw has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning four Super Bowls.
Roger Staubach has six appearances, going 4-2 and winning two Super Bowls.
John Elway has six appearances, going 5-1 and winning two Super Bowls.
Tom Brady has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning three Super Bowls.
Jim Kelly has five appearances, going 4-1 and winning zero Super Bowls.
Ken Stabler has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning one Super Bowl.
Donovan McNabb has five appearances, going 1-4 and winning zero Super Bowls.

Let me know if I missed any quarterback who started in at least five conference championship games. In case you were curious, Steve Young threw passes in six, but only started four and Brett Favre only played in four.

And, other than Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco, the other quarterbacks in the conference championship games do have some experience. It's the third career trip for both Arizona's Kurt Warner and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger.

Steelers 35, Chargers 24

1. Both the CBS announcers and I expected a quick kick from Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in the first quarter once he backed up several more yards out of a shotgun formation. Roethlisberger managed a 29-yard punt that was downed on the 9-yard line, but don't give Steelers coach Mike Tomlin all of the credit for the call.

I would be extremely surprised if Tomlin would have made the same decision if Patriots coach Bill Belichick hadn't pulled out the rarely-used play in New England's season finale. With New England leading 13-0 in the fourth quarter of a game where wind gusts reached 55 miles per hour, quarterback Matt Cassel pulled off a 55-yard quick kick that was downed at the 2-yard line.

What an excellent, and throwback, call.

As an aside, Randall Cunningham punted 20 times for an impressive 44.7 yard average while with the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings. Perhaps most impressively, the quarterback has the fourth-longest punt in NFL history with a 91-yard bomb against the Giants in 1988.

2. Yes, you read it right. San Diego only had possession of the ball for 17 seconds in the third quarter. After an eight-minute touchdown drive to start the second half, Pittsburgh intercepted Philip Rivers on the Chargers' first play from scrimmage. The Steelers' second drive stalled, but they recovered a muffed punt, and continued the ensuing drive into the fourth quarter.

There's really nothing else to say about that. It's ridiculous.

Odds and ends

2009-01-10T02:28:00.000-05:00

A few brief observations.

1. It takes a lot longer to do statistical research than expected, so for my sanity's sake I will not attempt to do the same amount of work behind the scenes every day. That will also help in two other ways -- I will more easily be able to post something every day, and I will be able to do more substantive research without stringent deadlines. I'm also busy finding some more interesting blogs to read, that I will continue to add to the links along the right-side.

2. I am obviously an NFL geek considering that I took home the Miami Dolphins 2008 Postseason Guide that we received at work today after my bosses threw it in the recycling bin. I like the opportunity to read through the weekly game summaries and the guide also contains a lot of good statistical information that I can use in my research. Although the Internet is an undeniably great resource, it is sometimes easier to flip back and forth between pages instead of pressing Control-Tab repeatedly. Also, the book is currently selling on eBay for $17.50!

3. As for actual football news, I have none. Just enjoy the divisional playoff games this weekend, which is my second-favorite football weekend of the year after Kickoff Weekend. Eight of the best teams in the NFL play four consecutive single-elimination games. The Super Bowl is historically significant, but there is no less anticipation in the season than at the final game.

Division among the wild-cards?

2009-01-09T07:51:00.000-05:00

Despite having worse records than their opponents, both the San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals won wild-card games last weekend. The Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings each lost wild-card games despite having equal or better records than their opponents.

The common thread? All four teams did have home-field advantage. But according to historical numbers, that doesn't make a significant difference -- their status as a division winner does.

Division winners are 34-18 in wild-card games while home teams in wild-card games that have not involved division winners are only 23-15.

The second figure also carries an interesting caveat because home teams went 11-5 from 1978 to 1989** but only 12-10 from 1990 to 2001. The distinction is odd because in both cases, the wild-card games were held between the fourth and fifth seeds in the conference, although the introduction of free agency in 1993 could be one possible explanation for the sudden parity.

A brief historical review will help unpack the success of division winners in the wild-card round. The wild-card was introduced in 1978, but all three division winners received a bye week during wild-card weekend until 1990, when the postseason field was expanded from 10 to 12 teams.

From 1990 to 2001, four wild-card games were played but only two involved a division winner, because the conferences were aligned into three divisions. Division winners went 19-7 during those 13 seasons. In 2002, the NFL realigned both conferences into four divisions, resulting in two division winners playing in wild-card games. In the seven years since realignment, division winners are 17-11.

Perhaps, however, it's not surprising to see division winners fare well in the wild-card round. Quite simply, their regular season record is typically better than their opponent's.

When division winners have faced a wild-card team with a better regular season record, they are 4-3. When both teams have the same record, division winners are 7-3, and when division winners face a wild-card team with a worse record, they are 23-12.

**I did not include the 1982 strike season because an unusual playoff structure was utilized.

Best of final Hall of Fame nominees

2009-01-08T06:33:00.000-05:00

Update: Bruce Smith, Rod Woodson, Randall McDaniel, Ralph Wilson, Derrick Thomas and Bob Hayes were elected to the Hall of Fame.

Update: Sports Illustrated's Peter King offered his odds of each Hall of Fame candidate being inducted. The five players he gives the best odds are Bruce Smith, Rod Woodson, Bob Hayes, Cris Carter and Shannon Sharpe.

Of the thousands of NFL players who retired before 2004, only 15 remain eligible for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2009. The Board of Selectors whittles nominations down over the course of a year -- this class began with 133 -- and will end up electing between four and seven of the candidates, announcing them the week before the Super Bowl.

Thirteen of this year's candidates are modern-day players and two were selected by the Senior Committee, which looks at players retired for at least 25 years. Two contributors, who do not have to be retired, are also up for election.

My view of the Hall of Fame is that it should be a historical representation of football, covering positions and eras in a reasonably equitable manner. If you don't watch a player's career with the thought, "He is a Hall of Famer" in the back of your mind, then he probably isn't -- except for the rare few who changed the game in subtler ways. The five modern-day players (the maximum allowed) and the one senior nominee I would select are:

Modern-day candidates

- Bruce Smith (DE; Bills, Redskins; 1985-2003): One of the most feared defensive ends in league history, Smith holds the NFL's career record with 200 sacks and will be regarded alongside Deacon Jones and Reggie White as the greatest to ever play the position.

- Rod Woodson (CB, S; Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, Raiders; 1987-2003): Was able to play three positions -- cornerback, safety and kick returner -- at the highest level and has the third-most interceptions in NFL history (71), returning an NFL-record 12 for touchdowns.

- Paul Tagliabue (Commissioner; 1989-2005): Former leader avoided work-related stoppages while presiding over the introduction of free agency and the salary cap, in addition to increasing revenue through the development of valuable television contracts and new stadiums.

- Randall McDaniel (OL; Vikings, Buccaneers; 1988-2001): Although primarily a guard, McDaniel displayed tremendous versatility by playing every position on the offensive line, and was recognized for his contributions by being named to 12 consecutive Pro Bowls.

- Cris Carter (WR; Eagles, Vikings, Dolphins; 1987-2002): Known for making impressive sideline and fingertip grabs, along with catching touchdowns almost at will, Carter finished his career second only to Jerry Rice in career receptions (1,101) and receiving touchdowns (130).

Senior class candidates

-Bob Hayes (WR; Cowboys, 49ers; 1965-1975): World-class sprinter fundamentally changed the way defense is played by stretching the field with his raw speed. The Olympic gold-medalist forced the creation of zone coverages before quickly proceeding to destroy them.

The rest of the modern-day nominees, in alphabetical order, are Dermontti Dawson (C; Steelers; 1998-2000); Richard Dent (DE; Bears, 49ers, Colts, Eagles; 1983-1997); Russ Grimm (G; Redskins; 1981-1991); Cortez Kennedy (DT; Seahawks; 1990-2000); Bob Kuechenberg (OL; Dolphins; 1970-1983); John Randle (DT; Vikings, Seahawks; 1990-2003); Andre Reed (WR; Bills, Redskins; 1985-2000); Shannon Sharpe (TE; Broncos, Ravens; 1990-2003); Derrick Thomas (LB; Chiefs; 1989-1999); Ralph Wilson (Owner; Bills; 1959-Present). The other senior class nominee is Claude Humphrey (DE; Falcons, Eagles; 1968-1981).

Manning's MVP misery

2009-01-07T17:29:00.000-05:00

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, who lost his first playoff game after being named the Associated Press MVP, isn't alone. Eleven of the 54 MVPs went 0-1 in the playoffs. Fourteen have won NFL championships, but none since Kurt Warner did with the St. Louis Rams in 1999.

MVPs, however, have quite an impressive postseason record overall.

If MVPs were their own franchise, they would have the third-best postseason winning percentage in league history. The second-best Packers have a .625 winning percentage (25-15) while the MVPs hold a .651 winning percentage (71-38). Carolina holds the top spot with a 6-3 record (.666), but the 1998 expansion team has a small sample size and will slip if they lose to the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday night.

Nota bene:

- Two MVPs did not reach the postseason. Johnny Unitas led the Baltimore Colts to an 11-1-2 regular season record in 1964 but did not receive an automatic bid to the playoffs because of an 0-1-1 head-to-head record against the Los Angeles Rams, who also finished 11-1-2. O.J. Simpson and the Buffalo Bills finished 9-5 in 1973, losing the AFC East crown to the 12-2 Miami Dolphins and the lone wild-card spot to the 10-4 Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Twenty-two MVPs have made it the Super Bowl in the postseason following their award, but more have lost (12) than won (10). Eight have lost in the conference championship, 10 have lost in divisional round, and three have lost in the wild-card round.
- MVP quarterbacks (.662 winning percentage, 49-25 record, eight NFL titles) fare slightly better than MVP running backs (.555, 15-12, 4 titles). Defensive and special team MVPs -- there has been a defensive tackle, kicker and linebacker selected -- have had the highest rate of success. (.875, 7-1, 2 titles).

History suggests Herm Edwards will be fired

2009-01-06T22:31:00.001-05:00

Update: Herm Edwards was fired today, Jan. 23. Between my post and this update, Upon Further Review examined the records of coaches who lead teams coming off bad seasons.

Upon Further Review, a blog about Kansas City sports, has some insightful statistical analysis that causes writer Martin Manley to believe Chiefs coach Herm Edwards will certainly be fired, and that the franchise is simply waiting to hire a new general manager first.

Manley provides three comparisons to show why Edwards is a goner -- he has the worst record of active coaches with 80+ games, most non-expansion coaches with records of 2-14 or worse are fired, and so do coaches with miserable records after three seasons with a team.

My thoughts? Modern society contains so many entertainment options that owners of sports teams feel the need to ensure their product is profitable. When you're not winning, the best way to accomplish that is by promising change. Although a coach might ultimately end up being successful in a later job (future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick, who went 36-44 in Cleveland, comes to mind), it's often not a risk worth taking.

Nota bene:

If I get really ambitious, I might have to take up Manley on his implicit challenge:

I don’t have any way to measure this apart from about 1,000 hours of work, however... If I had produced this list every year, I would think the odds would be pretty darn good that the lowest active career winning percentage coach on the list would be gone most of the time

Turner put on back burner

2009-01-06T18:06:00.000-05:00

Michael Turner's performance -- or lack thereof -- in Saturday's NFC wild-card game between the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals was quite surprising on the surface.

Turner, who rushed for 1,699 yards and a franchise-record 17 touchdowns in the regular season, finished with only 42 rushing yards on 18 carries in the Falcons' 30-24 loss. He did score a 7-yard rushing touchdown in the second quarter, but his yardage tied a season-worst total.

When compared to the other top 45 rushing seasons in NFL history -- quantified as a 1,600-yard season for the sake of argument -- Turner's struggles particularly stand out. Only five of those 45 running backs compiled fewer yards in their postseason opener.

Be wary, however, of assigning too much blame to Turner for the Falcons' loss.

The heralded statistic that Atlanta went 8-0 in the regular season when Turner ran for 100-plus yards is a common, but misleading, figure. The circular reasoning only shows that teams are likely to win when they are leading in the fourth quarter -- as a result, they run the ball to drain the clock -- and are likely to lose when they are trailing in the fourth quarter -- in an attempt to catch up quickly, they pass the ball.

Case in point: Turner carried the ball seven times in the first quarter, eight times in the second, three times in the third, and none in the fourth. Although the Falcons led 17-14 at halftime, a fumbled exchange between quarterback Matt Ryan and Turner on the second play of the second half resulted in a defensive touchdown for Arizona, who never trailed again.

Nota bene:

- Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, who picked up 1,760 rushing yards in the regular season, rushed for 83 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in Sunday's 26-14 loss to Philadelphia. He only carried the ball two times in the fourth quarter, which the Vikings entered trailing 16-14.

- The best playoff-opening performance following a season of 1,600-plus rushing yards? Terrell Davis picked up 199 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in Denver's 38-3 win over Miami after rushing for 2,008 yards in 1998. The worst? Barry Sanders finished with negative 1 yard on 13 carries in Detroit's 16-12 loss to Green Bay Packers after rushing for 1,883 yards in 1994.

- Fourteen of the 46 highest rushing seasons in league history did not even result in playoff berths. Of the remaining 32 players, 18 won their respective playoff openers. In those games, running backs who finished with 100-plus yards only went 6-7, and players who finished with sub-50 yardage totals finished 2-6.

Wild-card, round two

2009-01-05T03:08:00.001-05:00

As I continue to refine my blog, please let me know if you have any questions or suggestions. And, yes, I have been biased to examining quarterbacks in my post-game analysis because they provide a smaller sample size and arguably more interesting discussion.

Baltimore 27, Miami 9

Quick thought: Miami Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington threw four interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown by Ed Reed, after tossing only seven in the regular season -- and never more than one in a game.

But, it could have been worse -- much, much worse. Four quarterbacks have thrown six interceptions in one playoff game, with three of those performances coming in NFL title games.

- Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre in a 45-17 loss to the St. Louis Rams in 2002 (three returned for TDs)
- Los Angeles Rams quarterback Norm Van Brocklin in a 38-14 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1955 title game (one returned for a TD)
- Detroit Lions quarterback Bobby Layne in a 56-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns in the 1954 title game
- New York Giants quarterback Frank Filchock in a 24-14 loss to the Chicago Bears in the 1946 title game

The most notable five-interception performance in playoff history was by Oakland Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon in Super Bowl XXXVII, including three that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers returned for touchdowns in Oakland's 48-21 loss.

Quick tease: Baltimore Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Flacco picked up his first postseason win despite throwing for only 135 yards. The Ravens' championship season in 2000 also contained some sparse offensive numbers, but what actually are the lowest passing yardages for a winning quarterback in a postseason game?

Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 14

Quick thought: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb, who made it to four consecutive NFC Championship games earlier this decade, now has eight playoff victories without a Super Bowl title.

McNabb (8-5 postseason record) joins Hall of Fame quarterbacks Jim Kelly (9-8) and quarterback Dan Marino (8-10) atop this unique -- and tragic -- list. With two more seasons averaging about 3,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, McNabb will have comparable career statistics to Kelly.

But does McNabb have a good chance to be voted into the Hall of Fame?

He's already in some pretty good company for career postseason wins: Joe Montana (16-7), Tom Brady (14-3), Terry Bradshaw (14-5), John Elway (14-7), Brett Favre (12-10), Roger Staubach (11-6), Troy Aikman (11-4) Bart Starr (9-1), Kelly, Jim Plunkett (8-2), Steve Young (8-6) and Marino.

For those keeping score, McNabb currently trails 10 current Hall of Famers and two shoo-ins, Brady and Favre, and can continue extending his win total this season.

Quick tease: The San Diego Chargers and Arizona Cardinals answered a lengthy discussion about whether division champions should receive a home playoff game despite their record by winning on Saturday night. The Vikings couldn't make it three in a row, however, prompting the question of how division champions have historically performed in the first round.

Wild-card, round one

2009-01-04T04:18:00.000-05:00

Update: Added kickoff return yardage to Ed Podolak's all-purpose total and complete breakdown for Keith Lincoln's total.

Because I am admittedly making this up as I go along, my plans for postgame analysis are to produce one quick thought -- an interesting fact I can verify quickly -- and one quick tease -- a trend or occurrence that I will blog on thoroughly later in the week after spending more time in research.

Arizona 30, Atlanta 24

Quick thought: Is nine years the longest delay of game in history? It might be for Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who joins Joe Montana as the only Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks to win a playoff game with a different franchise, a feat both accomplished at age 37.

Warner directed the Greatest Show on Turf in his first season a starter, winning the Super Bowl with the St. Louis Rams in 1999 -- almost one decade before this season's career renaissance. Montana won three Super Bowl MVPs (1981, 1984, 1989) with the San Francisco 49ers before taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the AFC Championship game in 1993.

Perhaps tellingly, 10 of the 15 other quarterbacks eligible for such an accomplishment played their entire careers with one team, although that may eventually change for Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Eli Manning.

Quick tease: Atlanta running back Michael Turner rushed for 1,699 yards this season -- the 28th-highest total in NFL history -- but was held to 42 yards on 18 carries. The lack of postseason production is stark when compared to the results of the other top-50 regular seasons.

San Diego 23, Indianapolis 16 (OT)

Quick thought: If you thought San Diego running back Darren Sproles was all over the field, you were right. In addition to providing the game-winning 22-yard touchdown run in overtime, Sproles' 326 all-purpose yards (105 rushing, 45 receiving, 106 kickoff return, 72 punt return) is the third-highest total in playoff history.

No. 1? Kansas City running back Ed Podolak picked up 350 yards in a 27-24 double overtime loss to Miami in the 1971 AFC Championship. He rushed for 85 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries, recorded 110 yards and one touchdown on eight receptions, and added 155 yards on three kickoff returns.

No. 2? San Diego fullback Keith Lincoln compiled 329 yards in the 1963 AFL Championship, a 52-10 slaughter of the Boston Patriots. He rushed for 206 yards and one touchdown, adding 123 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Quick tease: Peyton Manning is now 3-3 in the playoffs following his MVP seasons (2003, 2004, 2008), making it to only one AFC Championship game. Is that typical postseason production for MVPs, or is it common for Super Bowls to accompany such recognition?

Playoff predictions to laugh at later

2009-01-03T16:26:00.000-05:00

Update: I am adding the actual playoff results in italics next to my predictions.

For what it's worth, here are my playoff predictions for this year. I think the Carolina Panthers will beat the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl.

After watching Carolina beat San Diego in the first week of the regular season, I had a hunch that they would go to the Super Bowl, and they haven't done anything to change my mind. They remind me a lot of the 2007 New York Giants, with a team that has several talented running backs, a strong defense and a talented quarterback that can deliver a victory when needed. I think Baltimore is the only defense that can get into Peyton Manning's head, and in the AFC, that's enough to propel them.

AFC Wild-Card
Baltimore over Miami | Baltimore 27, Miami 9
Indianapolis over San Diego | San Diego 23, Indianapolis 17 (OT)

AFC Divisional
Baltimore over Tennessee | Baltimore 13, Tennessee 10
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh 35, San Diego 24

AFC Championship
Baltimore over Indianapolis | Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 14

NFC Wild-Card
Minnesota over Philadelphia | Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 14
Atlanta over Arizona | Arizona 30, Atlanta 24

NFC Divisional
Carolina over Minnesota | Arizona 33, Carolina 13
New York over Atlanta | Philadelphia 23, New York 11

NFC Championship
Carolina over New York | Arizona 32, Philadelphia 25

Super Bowl
Carolina over Baltimore | Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23

Manning's unknown MVP record?

2009-01-02T13:06:00.000-05:00

Correction: Peyton Manning has played 11 NFL seasons, not 10 as previously stated.

Note: My research is only complete through 1985, but I am extremely confident no player before then qualifies because careers were much shorter. Please let me know if my data is inaccurate.

Peyton Manning was named the 2008 NFL MVP today, and now the debate can really begin. Historically, will Manning or Brett Favre be remembered as the better quarterback?

Both have one Super Bowl ring and both have won three NFL MVPs, the only players to achieve such a feat. The future Hall of Famers even share the odd distinction of being a co-MVP -- Manning shared it with Steve McNair in 2003 and Favre shared it with Barry Sanders in 1997.

The Indianapolis Colts quarterback, however, did move past Favre in one category by receiving 32 of this year's 50 votes from The Associated Press. He actually only needed one to set the mark.

Manning has now received MVP votes in seven of his 11 NFL seasons, breaking a record shared by Favre and Jerry Rice, who each had career totals of six. Steve Young and Joe Montana received MVP votes in four individual seasons.

In addition to his three first-place finishes (2008, 2004, 2003), Manning has finished second (2005), tied for second (1999), third (2006) and tied for fifth (2000). Favre won the award in three consecutive years (1997, 1996, 1995) and also has second- (2007, 2002) and third-place (2001) finishes in his 18-year career.

For the curious, Rice finished second (1995, 1987), third (1994, 1993) sixth (1986) and seventh (1990) in a 20-year career.

Receiving any MVP votes in a career can be a difficult task -- future Hall of Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson has received no votes outside of his 2006 MVP season -- and Manning's consistent greatness should not be overlooked.

Nota bene:

- Jerry Rice's feat is astounding in itself because wide receivers are not often recognized by MVP voters. Since Rice's career began in 1985, only Randy Moss (1998) and Sterling Sharpe (1993) and tight end Mark Bavaro (1986) received any MVP votes.

- Eight players received MVP votes in 2008, marking the most split ballot since 1993, when nine players received votes: Emmitt Smith (26), Steve Young (21), Jerry Rice (15), John Elway (10), Troy Aikman (3), Warren Moon (2), Marcus Allen (2), Phil Simms (1), Sterling Sharpe (1).

Winning streaks

2009-01-02T00:52:00.000-05:00

Update: It's worth noting that although the Arizona Cardinals made a valiant effort to prove me wrong, they fell just short of a Super Bowl victory -- and their first four-game winning streak of 2008. Pittsburgh, the Super Bowl winner, recorded a five-game winning streak in the regular season.

In an NFL season, each team has 14 chances to put together a three-game winning streak. If a team can't get it done then, is there any reason to think it can make its last chance count?

In the playoffs, that is what's at stake.

To win the Super Bowl, a team has to put together a three- or four-game winning streak against the toughest competition in the league.

There is no margin of error, and that's why the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals are the most unlikely teams in this year's 16-team playoff field to win the Super Bowl.

Each of the first 42 Super Bowl winners has put together at least a four-game winning streak in the regular season, which was expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1978. The Falcons, Cardinals and Eagles each only managed to reach a three-game winning streak (Philadelphia did it twice).

It's not really surprising two of those teams make the list, because the Eagles (9-6-1) snuck into the playoffs when everything fell their way in the final week of the regular season. The Cardinals (9-7) have barely resembled an NFL franchise since clinching the horrid NFC West in Week 14. And the Cardinals host the Falcons (11-5) on Saturday, so at least one will lose.

Even so, it's worth noting how difficult it is to roll through a postseason after ups and downs in the regular season. Yes, the 2007 New York Giants and 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers each won three road playoff games and the Super Bowl as wild-card teams, but the Giants won six consecutive games in the regular season and the Steelers put together two separate four-game win streaks.

The other three wild-card teams to win Super Bowls -- the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, 1997 Denver Broncos and 1980 Oakland Raiders -- each won at least six straight games in the regular season.

A four-game winning streak is not necessary to qualify for the playoffs. A team can finish 12-4 without compiling one, and several 8-8 teams have found themselves in the posteason. And, you don't automatically win the Super Bowl if you have a successful regular season. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots, who won all 16 regular season games before losing the Super Bowl.

But to win the Super Bowl, you have to string together several victories in the playoffs. It helps to have the experience.

Nota bene:

- For clarity's sake, I didn't count the Eagles' 13-13 tie against the Cincinnatti Bengals as a win, even though ties are not a possible outcome (are you listening, Donovan McNabb?) in postseason games. It didn't factor in, anyway, as the tie was sandwiched between two losses.

- Half the Super Bowl winners had at least a seven-game winning streak, which only the Tennessee Titans (10), Indianapolis Colts (nine) and New York Giants (seven) achieved in 2008.

The coin toss

2009-01-02T00:39:00.000-05:00

My goal for this blog is a simple one. I want to provide sudden depth on the NFL, an incredibly exciting sports league that is often hijacked by stale and repetitive storylines. I hope to bring both original reporting and some helpful opining to the process.

Of utmost importance, however, is accuracy. Without it, any work I do can be rationally discredited. Please let me know if you see any mistakes, ranging from rogue punctuation to incomplete statistical analysis. And feel free to comment if you have something pertinent to add to the conversation.